Olive Oil Market Digest w15/2025

The European olive oil market remains under pressure due to the ongoing situation with the US-imposed tariffs. Although the tariffs were officially enacted on April 9th, President Trump announced on the same day a 90-day pause to allow room for negotiations. Despite this pause, uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on the market.

The situation has affected both European-producing countries and Tunisia. Notably, Tunisia is facing even higher tariffs than its European counterparts, intensifying concerns among stakeholders.

In Spain, which supplies around two-thirds of olive oil imports to the US, the atmosphere is particularly tense. Producers and exporters are worried about losing key US clients, and many are seeking new agreements with buyers to secure ongoing commercial activity. However, given the current uncertainty, many negotiations have stalled. Market participants fear the potential downward pressure on internal prices, triggered by the tariff threat, even during this temporary suspension.

At the same time, there’s significant caution in the market as stakeholders wait for developments after the Easter holiday period. There’s a collective effort to avoid a collapse in market confidence, with many hoping that the post-Easter period will bring more clarity and action.

Price levels this week remain relatively stable, albeit lower. All eyes are now on the release of the March AICA (Agencia de Información y Control Alimentarios) data, as the olive oil production season comes to a close and commercial outputs nearing 120,000 tons.

In Greece, the market is also facing challenges. Offers remain low, but few are willing to sell, resulting in frozen export activity. Greek suppliers and traders are actively exploring alternative markets in response to the ongoing tariff concerns. Interestingly, the Greek market appears to be split: mills are struggling to sell, as producers are unwilling to release quantities at current prices, while traders—who are often better informed—have already secured stocks and are now seeking potential buyers aligned with today's price levels.

Overall, the market this week can be characterized as stable with low demand, as uncertainty lingers and stakeholders navigate a complex international trade environment.

Olive Oil Market Forecast

As we move into mid-April, the Easter holiday will play a significant role in shaping market dynamics across traditional olive oil-producing countries. During the celebration period, market operations typically slow down, resulting in a natural pause in trading activity. However, in the days leading up to Easter, a short-term increase in transactions is expected as buyers secure necessary supplies. This pre-holiday rush may trigger a slight price rebound in the Spanish market, though this will likely be temporary.

At the same time, April marks the start of the critical olive tree flowering season, which extends through May. This period is vital for the future of the 2025/26 harvest, and early signs are generating cautious optimism, especially among Spanish growers. Current weather conditions are being closely monitored, as favorable developments could enhance flowering and reinforce market confidence. Positive outlooks in this area may contribute to price stabilization and prevent further declines in the coming weeks.

On the supply and demand side, lower prices have led to an uptick in consumption, particularly in Spain, which could complicate carryover stock levels for the next season. This trend aligns with the European Commission’s forecast of a 7% increase in olive oil consumption for the 2024/25 season, following a significant 22% decline in recent years. Despite an overall stabilization in the market, high-quality extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) remains in short supply. This limited availability continues to support higher price points, particularly in Spain, where demand for high-quality EVOO exceeds current supply.

Looking ahead through late April, regional price trends are expected to reflect these dynamics. In Spain, conventional EVOO prices are forecasted to possibly increase slightly before and after Easter. Trading activity will likely remain moderate as the market digests projections of improved harvest volumes. In Italy, prices are expected to stay stable at elevated levels—approximately €9.25 kg—driven by continued supply constraints and persistent buyer interest. Greece is likely to see further price stabilization at levels lower than in recent months, with some producers becoming more inclined to sell ahead of Easter to meet financial needs, although significant volumes still remain unsold in mills. Meanwhile, Tunisia is offering more competitive pricing—around €3.85/kg for conventional and €4.10/kg for organic EVOO—positioning itself as a potential alternative source for buyers, which could influence broader market dynamics in Europe.

As we navigate a turbulent period marked by global trading challenges, we remain committed to closely monitoring the olive oil market. Uncertainty continues to shape stakeholder behavior, especially in key producing regions. It is expected to provide valuable insights into current supply and demand dynamics. These findings will be critical in guiding short-term strategies across the sector.

References
https://usetorg.com/blog/olive-oil-trends-in-2025

https://www.certifiedorigins.com/olive-oil-market-report-february-2025/