AICA data | June 2026
The latest figures from Spain’s Agencia de Información y Control Alimentarios (AICA) confirm the close of the 2025/26 campaign with a production of 1.3 million tonnes. After several months of slowing activity, market outputs rebounded in June, while stocks declined at their fastest monthly pace of the season as oil moved through commercial channels. Market attention is on expectations for the 2026/27 harvest.
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Final production figures
Spain’s mills produced just 188 tonnes of olive oil in June, down 90.2% from 1,917 tonnes in May, concluding milling activity for the 2025/26 campaign.
This brings the total cumulative production for the 2025–2026 campaign to:
● 1,298,503 tonnes
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This final figure is 8.6% below the previous campaign's figure of 1,421,097 tonnes, but provides a comfortable supply base heading into the summer. With milling concluded, the market is now focused entirely on stock management, demand trends, and production prospects for the upcoming season.
Stocks fall at the fastest pace of the campaign
Total olive oil stocks at the end of June stood at 683,345 tonnes, down 11.8% from 774,987 tonnes at the end of May, a monthly reduction of more than 91,000 tonnes, the sharpest drawdown of the campaign.
Stocks have now declined for four consecutive months from their seasonal peak of 974,469 tonnes in February, with the pace of depletion accelerating throughout the period: −3.5% in March, −8.2% in April, −10.2% in May, and −11.8% in June—a cumulative decline of almost 30% from the seasonal high.
Stock distribution across the sector was as follows:
● Olive mills: 419,283 tonnes (-17.3% month-on-month)
● Bottlers and refiners: 258,237 tonnes (-1.2% month-on-month)
● Patrimonio Comunal Olivarero: 5,825 tonnes (-10.6% month-on-month)
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As in previous months, the drawdown was concentrated at the mill level, where inventories fell by more than 87,000 tonnes, while bottler stocks held broadly steady, a sign that oil is moving from producer storage into commercial channels.
Market outputs rebound
Total market outputs in June reached:
● 95,104 tonnes
This represents a 5.5% increase from May's 90,161 tonnes.
Outputs peaked in March at 118,982 tonnes, then slipped over the next two months (94,527 in April, 90,161 in May), raising concerns that demand was weakening. June broke that trend, the first monthly increase after three consecutive declines. Throughout the campaign, outputs remained within a resilient 88,000–119,000 tonnes per month range despite the smaller crop, underscoring steady domestic consumption and export demand.
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June's uptick suggests some buyers stepped back into the market, either to secure oil before the campaign closes or in response to easing prices over the season.
Market outlook
The 2025/26 season closes as a smaller, weather-hit campaign that nonetheless kept the market comfortably supplied. A crop of about 1.3 million tonnes, about 8.6% below last year and short of the initial 1.4–1.44 million-tonne forecast, proved sufficient, alongside rebuilt inventories, to meet steady demand without the shortages some market participants had feared earlier in the year.
Stocks were replenished to a February peak of 974,469 tonnes and have since drawn down at an accelerating pace, ending June at 683,345 tonnes. That the drawdown sped up even as milling stopped points to resilient underlying demand.
Outputs rebounded 5.5% after three months of decline, and with production at a standstill, the entire month’s outputs came straight out of storage. The campaign, therefore, ends with a comfortable cushion: total stocks above 680,000 tonnes and an estimated inter-campaign carryover of around 260,000 tonnes, about 10% below last season, but still ample heading into the new crop.
Attention is on the 2026/27 harvest. For now, the combination of ample carryover, a promising new crop and steady demand points to a stable-to-softer market. The indicators to watch over the coming months are stock evolution, monthly output figures and, above all, the new-crop forecasts and summer weather.
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