Egyptian export specialist Hussein El Saadany says demand is recovering and prices are competitive. The harder task, he argues, is convincing buyers who still think first of Spain, Italy and Greece.
Olive oil is at its lowest price in more than a year, and for Egypt's small but growing band of exporters, that is both a threat and an invitation. Softer prices thin their margins — but a global import market roaring back to life is opening doors that had slammed shut during the worst shortage in years.
Hussein El Saadany has watched both sides of that swing. An export specialist with more than seven years in the trade, he handles freight, logistics and large-volume shipments of premium extra virgin olive oil — 0.2% acidity, ISO, BRC and FDA certified — out of Egypt for A.M Cargo. He describes a season winding down unevenly.
"Right now, the olive oil market is a little bit mixed up. Some suppliers don't have olive oil since the season was a long time ago, and the extra virgin was sold, and some suppliers still have it."
A late-season market with patchy supply
El Saadany's read on Egyptian exports is that trade remains active but thinning as stocks run down. "Exports are still moving, but we're late in the season," he said. "Many producers have already sold most of their extra virgin olive oil, while others still have some stock left, so supply is more limited than it was a few months ago."
That thinning of supply is happening against a backdrop of recovering but still constrained global output. The International Olive Council estimates world olive oil production at about 3.44 million tonnes for the 2025/26 crop year, a decline of roughly 4% on the previous season, though still well above the 2.59 million-tonne collapse of 2023/24 that sent prices soaring. Global consumption, meanwhile, is expected to edge up by around 1% to roughly 3.25 million tonnes, keeping demand firm as the oil pipeline refills.
Where the oil is going
Egyptian oil follows well-worn trade lanes, El Saadany said: "We mainly see demand from Europe, the Gulf countries, and North America, with growing interest from some African markets as well."
The pull from those regions is visible in the trade data. The IOC reported that olive oil imports across several major markets jumped by 14%-15% in the opening months of the 2025/26 campaign compared with a year earlier, as buyers restocked at lower prices. The United States — the largest single import market — has been a standout, with imports up roughly 20% year on year.
For Egypt, that broad recovery in appetite widens the pool of buyers looking to diversify away from an EU-dominated supply base.
Prices come off the boil
On pricing, El Saadany is blunt about the direction of travel. "Prices have come down compared to last season, following the trend in Europe," he said. "Buyers are expecting more competitive prices now, although quality and volume still make a big difference."
According to European Commission data, extra virgin olive oil at origin in Spain slid to about €397 per 100 kg by early June 2026. The Commission has linked the easing to expectations of a better 2026/27 harvest in the main producing countries.
For exporters in lower-cost origins, that combination of falling prices and reviving demand is precisely the window in which competitively priced oil can win shelf space.
"Egyptian olive oil still doesn't get the international recognition it deserves. We produce very good quality oil, but many buyers automatically think of Spain, Italy, or Greece first."
The recognition gap
For El Saadany, the central challenge is not quality but perception. "Egypt has a great opportunity to grow because production is increasing and our prices are competitive," he said. "At the same time, I believe Egyptian olive oil still doesn't get the international recognition it deserves."
The numbers back the underdog framing. Egypt is a heavyweight in table olives — accounting for close to a fifth of global production in recent seasons — but its olive oil output is far smaller, with the most recent full-season estimate of around 40,000 tonnes in 2023/24, much of it consumed domestically. That leaves comparatively little for export, and Egyptian oil rarely carries the brand recognition of the established names.
Yet the government and growers have signalled ambitions to expand oil output and lift exports, and rising plantings mean the supply base is growing. The recognition gap El Saadany describes is, in effect, the space between Egypt's production potential and its standing in the minds of international buyers.
Looking to the next harvest
As for the season ahead, El Saadany is cautiously optimistic. "If weather conditions stay favourable, I think we should have a good harvest with strong production, although it's still a bit early to say for sure," he said.
The 2025/26 campaign is only just taking shape. But if the weather cooperates and the current recovery in import demand holds, a lower-priced, higher-volume season could be exactly the moment for an origin like Egypt to convert competitive pricing into lasting relationships — and, perhaps, into the recognition El Saadany says his country's oil has yet to earn.
