The Mediterranean olive oil market enters a critical phase as the 2025/26 campaign officially begins. Major olive mills in southern Spain and southeastern Sicily are operational, with forecasts indicating higher yields than in recent years. Market dynamics are shaped by a balance between carry-over stocks from the previous campaign and expectations for the new harvest. Prices remain largely stable across most origins, while effective inventory management becomes increasingly crucial as mills process fresh olives.
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Market Update by Country
Spain
Spain's olive oil market demonstrates remarkable stability compared to past seasons' volatility. Current transactions total 4,514.94 tons, valued at €3,996,770.
- Extra Virgin Olive Oil (EVOO): €4.25/kg, 3,130.94 tons
- Virgin Olive Oil (VOO): €3.56/kg, 541 tons
- Lampante Olive Oil: €3.34/kg, 843 tons
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Spain enters the new campaign with substantial carry-over stocks, supporting market stability but potentially limiting upward price pressure as new harvest volumes increase. As of August 2025:
- Production up to Aug. 30 (new crop): 1,415,380 tons
- Average 2025 outputs: 117,111 tons
- August outputs (domestic + exports): 105,215 tons
- August harvest: 350 tons
- Total stocks as of Aug. 30 (crop + carryover): 404,613 tons (Packers: 165,842 tons, Farmers: 238,771 tons)
Italy
Italy's olive oil market maintains premium pricing with EVOO at €9.20/kg—more than double Spanish rates—reflecting limited supply, high quality differentiation, and strong international brand positioning. Sicilian mills have begun processing early-ripening varieties, with early harvest results showing promising yields despite slightly reduced volumes.
Others:
- Greece's olive oil market shows cautious optimism as harvest approaches (mid-to-late October). EVOO is priced at €4.90/kg. Prices are expected to remain competitive with Spain but significantly below Italian premiums. Prolonged heat and dry conditions are affecting olive grove health. In Crete, EVOO is at €4.40-5.00/kg, VOO is at €3.60-4.10/kg, and lampante is at €2.90-3.30/kg.
- Tunisia's olive oil market prepares for the new season with competitive pricing in Mediterranean markets, generally above Spanish averages but below Italian levels.
- Turkey's olive oil market exhibits significant price volatility as the campaign nears. Prices are expected to remain competitive with Spain, while still below Italian premiums. Output forecasts suggest a normalization from recent record levels.
Comparative Price Analysis Week-on-Week
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Market Sentiment & Buyer Behavior
- Strong attention to early harvest indicators and significant price disparities across Mediterranean origins.
- Spanish-Italian price gap creates complex procurement strategies for buyers.
- EVOO remains in high demand, even at premium pricing.
- Italian buyers focus on premium positioning, maintaining profitability despite lower volumes.
- High carry-over stocks in Spain stabilize prices and provide market flexibility.
Market Outlook
The upcoming months will be shaped by the price differentials between origins and the entry of new harvest volumes:
- Spanish EVOO offers arbitrage opportunities and procurement flexibility for various market segments.
- Spanish output forecasts suggest recovery from previous challenging seasons, while large inventories may soften price increases.
- Italian producers expected to maintain premium positioning, even as Spanish supply grows. Limited volumes and quality differentiation can sustain premiums despite global supply improvements.
- Global consumption is expected to recover as Spanish prices normalize, with Italian premiums retaining niche appeal.
- Weather conditions and ongoing irrigation/harvesting strategies will be critical for final output outcomes and price trends.
Conclusion
Week 37 signals the start of the 2025/26 Mediterranean olive oil campaign. Pricing disparities define market segmentation between volume-oriented and premium-focused origins. The interplay of carry-over stocks, new harvest volumes, and price differentials will shape Mediterranean olive oil markets through the rest of 2025.
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