Monthly European Bulk Olive Oil Market Report - June 2025
As summer unfolds across Southern Europe, the olive oil market finds itself at a critical juncture. With the 2024/2025 campaign now in its final stages, stakeholders are closely evaluating the latest production figures, commercial activity, and weather conditions to build their strategies for the upcoming months. The June AICA data arrives when the market is delicately balancing demand, stock availability, and concerns over quality, particularly as temperatures soar and the next crop takes shape. This month’s report dives into the key developments in Spain, the current heart of the global olive oil industry. From irrigation updates and output totals to evolving buying behavior and price forecasts, the Wikifarmer experts team offers a comprehensive overview of the forces shaping the bulk olive oil market.
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Spanish Market developments
Weather Conditions
As previously highlighted, the spring water reservoirs have provided a highly satisfactory level of irrigation, which has played a crucial role in ensuring that the olive groves receive an adequate water supply during the hot summer months. This consistent irrigation through rainfalls has proven to be particularly beneficial, especially during the intense heat waves experienced in June, as it allowed the vital stage of flowering to be completed successfully without any detrimental effects. While high temperatures may not significantly impact the processes of fruit setting and pit hardening that are currently taking place, it is important to note that excessive heat can still have adverse effects on the overall quality of the olive oil produced. The heat stress experienced by the trees can lead to a decline in oil quality, which is a concern for growers.
Fortunately, the water reservoirs in Andalucia are currently holding above 50% capacity, which ensures that there will be sufficient irrigation throughout the summer season. This is a positive sign for olive growers, who should keep monitoring the high temperatures and their impact on the groves, particularly as the fruits accumulate oil within the olive flesh. By keeping a close eye on these conditions, growers can take proactive measures to protect their crops and maintain the quality of their olive oil production during this critical period.
Bulk Olive Oil Outputs
The olive oil campaign for the 2024/2025 season has successfully concluded its harvesting phase, although there are still minor quantities being added to the overall production totals. This year's production has reached an impressive total of 1,414,383 tons, with the month of June contributing a modest 180 tons of fresh olive oil. As of June 30th, the total stocks, which include both this year's crop and the carryover, stood at 645,128 tons. Within these stocks, packers are currently holding 196,148 tons in their facilities, while farmers are retaining 448,980 tons in olive oil mills and storage tanks. These figures suggest that there are still significant quantities of olive oil that remain unsold in the market.
In terms of Spanish commercial activity, the demand for bulk olive oil outputs, which encompasses both exports and domestic purchases, has remained robust, with a total of 117,446 tons recorded. This sustained level of activity has helped maintain an average volume for 2025 at 116,638 tons. Notably, these elevated volumes have reached levels comparable to those seen in 2022, which was recognized as the last successful olive oil campaign. This consistency in production and commercial activity indicates a positive outlook for the olive oil industry, suggesting that despite the unsold quantities, there is a strong market demand that could lead to further sales and distribution opportunities in the near future. The industry stakeholders are optimistic about the potential for growth and increased market engagement as they move forward into the next phases of the campaign.
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Our view
As the olive oil campaign draws to a close, market players have been closely anticipating the latest data from Spain’s AICA. The newly released figures offer a clearer picture of how the season is wrapping up and provide crucial signals for the weeks ahead, particularly around carryover volumes and price behavior across the value chain.
Outputs continue to show resilience, maintaining strong levels in both domestic and export markets. However, they have reached their seasonal ceiling. Surpassing the psychological threshold of 120,000 tons now appears increasingly unlikely at current price levels, limiting additional pressure on remaining stocks.
The expected carryover volume as of October 1st is now estimated to exceed 300,000 tons. This provides a relatively secure bridge between the current and upcoming crop, easing fears of tight supply at the campaign start and contributing to a more stable outlook for the immediate future.
A consistent trend remains that packers are purchasing only to meet immediate needs. Inventory levels remain unchanged compared to previous months, indicating a cautious approach and a clear absence of long-term contractual commitments. This behavior has contributed to the year-long price stabilization, with no significant speculative movements from the industrial side.
Recent cost increases have emerged from producers’ efforts to preserve key price thresholds, particularly €3.00/kg for refined and €3.70/kg for EVOO. These attempts underline ongoing margin pressure and the difficulty of maintaining profitability as market fundamentals shift with the season’s end.
Market tension is increasingly focused on the limited availability of high-quality Extra Virgin Olive Oil. This segment is expected to maintain its price resilience even as the arrival of the new crop may weigh on other categories. The scarcity of top-grade oil is becoming a defining issue, influencing both trade flows and price dynamics.
Italian buyers have shown renewed interest in recent weeks, boosting demand and lifting prices in Greece. The Peloponnese region is currently out of the market, as many producers there concluded sales earlier and now prefer to hold remaining stocks in anticipation of a possible price recovery. In contrast, Cretan producers—more reluctant in the previous month—are beginning to re-enter the market, albeit firmly defending price levels above €4.20/kg.
Demand for low-pesticide and MOSH/MOAH-compliant batches remains robust. On Wikifarmer’s platform, products in the “Gold Standard” category continue to attract consistent attention, reflecting both evolving buyer preferences and stricter quality requirements across key markets.
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Wikifarmer Expert View – Forecast on price movements (July 2025)
Top-tier Extra Virgin Olive Oil (EVOO) is expected to maintain a firm stance on pricing in the coming weeks. While price levels around €3.80–€3.90/kg are likely to hold, the previously seen €4.00/kg threshold now appears to be out of reach—except in select Greek markets, where premium quality lots from regions like Crete continue to command a premium. With limited supply and persistent demand from quality-sensitive buyers, this segment will likely remain the most resilient until new crop volumes begin to arrive.
In contrast, the standard quality EVOO market is expected to experience heightened tension in the immediate term. Farmers are attempting to regain a few euro cents as they hold onto their remaining stocks, hoping for a small price recovery. However, as the new crop draws closer, there will be growing pressure to liquidate existing batches, especially among producers with limited storage capacity or liquidity constraints. This could lead to a more dynamic and competitive market in the coming weeks.
A noticeable uptick in demand from Italian packers is injecting fresh activity into the market. Their renewed interest is likely to support export volumes and provide some price stability, particularly in Greece and Spain, where buyer-seller engagement is accelerating.
The refined pomace oil market remains stable, with prices expected to hover between €2.15 and €2.20/kg. Similarly, lampante oil continues to trade within a narrow range, currently estimated at €2.80–€2.90/kg. Both segments show little volatility, offering more predictability in contrast to the shifting dynamics seen in the EVOO market.
Conclusion
The latest AICA figures confirm that, despite stable consumption and decent carryover levels, the market remains segmented and quality-sensitive. With early signs of demand building ahead of the new crop—especially from Italy—and producers resisting downward pressure, short-term volatility may persist. However, the structural tightness in premium quality oils is likely to continue supporting prices in this segment.
Wikifarmer will continue monitoring regional dynamics, price signals, and trade patterns across our network to provide the most timely and reliable insights to all stakeholders.
Sources
La Agencia de Información y Control Alimentarios (AICA)
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