Spain – AICA Data Update (June 2025)
The latest AICA (Agencia de Información y Control Alimentarios) data, just released, shows that Spain held 645.128 tons of total stocks by the end of June, broken down as follows: 443,800 tons held by producers, 196,148 tons by bottlers and refineries, and 5,180 tons categorized as heritage stock.
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Olive oil outputs remained high without further increasing in June, reaching 117,446 tons. Production for the month was minimal, at just 189 tons, indicating the end of the current campaign. Cumulative production for the season stands at 1,414,383 tons.
With average monthly domestic and export demand exceeding 100,000 tons, these figures confirm a tight supply scenario leading into the new season. The data is already fueling further speculation and contributing to continued price tension, particularly for Lampante and Refined categories.
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Olive Oil Market Update - Week 28/2025
Spain
Production continues to perform well. However, the start of the new season is expected to be extremely short, and prices may fluctuate rapidly, similar to the previous campaign. Market tension is likely to persist until the end of October, provided that consumption remains strong. August will likely be a quiet month, with one or two weeks of holidays significantly slowing down purchases. One of the main limitations in Spain is quality — it is extremely difficult to find high-grade extra virgin olive oil. The price range for extra virgin currently spans widely from €3.40–3.50/kg to €4.50/kg.
Greece
There are currently no offers on the market. Producers remain firm in their stance and are dissatisfied with current prices, hoping for further increases. Despite this, Greece still holds significant volumes of unsold olive oil. The country’s limited storage capacity may lead to a deterioration in quality and higher parameters during the summer months. After the holidays, oil quality is expected to decline. While Greek producers hope for Italian demand, it is more likely that Italy will continue using Spanish stocks until depletion. Additionally, due to insufficient storage infrastructure, many Greek producers and mills will be compelled to sell oil early in the next season.
Tunisia
Stocks in Tunisia are nearing depletion. The combination of reduced availability and the intense summer heat is expected to further impact the remaining volumes, both in quantity and quality. As the market tightens, Tunisia’s role in the supply chain will likely diminish until the new harvest begins, putting additional pressure on neighboring markets.
Portugal
Portugal’s remaining olive oil stocks are minimal, with most of the supply already committed. Market activity is subdued as operators shift their focus to the upcoming season. Preparations for the new crop are already underway, and no significant volumes are expected to enter the market until the new campaign begins.
Price Developments in Europe
Over the past three weeks, extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) prices have shown a clear upward trend across Greece, Italy, and Spain. In Greece, EVOO increased from €4.05 to €4.19 per kilo, the largest jump among the three countries. Italy’s EVOO prices also rose, reaching €9.00 from €8.90, while Spain’s prices climbed from €3.57 to €3.67. For virgin olive oil (VOO), prices in Greece remained unchanged at €3.60, but in Spain, there was a modest rise from €3.09 to €3.16. Lampante olive oil prices were stable in Greece at €2.50, while Spain saw a slight increase from €2.93 to €2.95. No data was available for Italy’s VOO and lampante categories.
Overall, the EVOO market appears to be experiencing more dynamic price movements compared to VOO and lampante oils, likely reflecting higher demand and tighter supply. The mild increases in Spain’s VOO and lampante prices suggest a generally steady but slightly strengthening market. Greece’s stability in VOO and lampante contrasts with its EVOO price rise, highlighting differing market dynamics by grade. In summary, the premium segment (EVOO) is leading the price increases, while lower grades remain relatively stable.
Market Sentiment and Buyer Behavior
The market remains strong, with prices in Spain continuing to rise, particularly for Lampante and Refined grades, ahead of June’s AICA data release. Speculation drives much of the current pricing, fueled by concerns over insufficient supply to bridge the gap until the new crop.
Italian buyers are actively purchasing olive oil to safeguard their operations. In Spain, only a few mills hold significant volumes and are in no rush to sell, maintaining high asking prices for the remaining stock. Meanwhile, bottlers remain calm, having already secured their needs — mainly through Italian intermediaries — and are not currently contributing to market pressure.
In Greece, particularly in Crete, demand for olive oil is strong. However, mill owners are unable to meet this demand as producers are unwilling to sell. Everyone is waiting for the AICA data before making strategic decisions. Greek buyers remain focused exclusively on sourcing Greek olive oil.
Conclusion
The European olive oil market faces heightened tension as the 2024/25 campaign ends, with Spain’s AICA data revealing critically tight stocks and strong demand outpacing supply. EVOO prices have risen across Spain and Greece, while Lampante and Refined grades see the most pressure. High-quality EVOO is scarce in Spain, adding to price volatility. Greek producers are holding out for better prices, but limited storage may force early sales and risk quality loss. Stocks in Tunisia and Portugal are nearly depleted, increasing dependence on Spanish and Greek supplies. Buyers are acting cautiously, with Italian demand strong and Spanish mills holding out for higher prices. Market tension is expected to persist through October, with a quiet August due to holidays. In summary, tight supply, firm producer stances, and ongoing speculation are driving the market. The coming months will be critical for price and quality. Next week, we will provide an in-depth analysis of the latest AICA data.
Next week, we will focus on an in-depth analysis of the latest AICA data to provide further insights into Spain’s stock situation and its implications for the broader olive oil market.
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