Global Olive Oil Market Dynamics: Week 26/2025
European bulk olive oil market developments
In the European bulk olive oil market, commercial activity is expected to face significant difficulties in the coming months. While certain segments, particularly high-quality extra virgin olive oil (EVOO), are experiencing price increases, the underlying market dynamics suggest a complex landscape.
In Spain, one of the world's largest olive oil producers, after the publication of the AICA data, prices from Poolred show upward trends, mainly for premium-grade EVOO. This suggests a split in the market: top-quality oils are gaining value, while standard grades aren’t seeing the same demand.
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Large bottling companies are carefully planning for the new crop season. Their current goal is to reduce their inventories by the time the new season starts, possibly to take advantage of better buying opportunities or avoid holding excess stock. As noted in our latest monthly report, many packers still have significant quantities of olive oil. Until the end of July, they are actively seeking good-quality EVOO to boost their reserves. Then, from August to September, they are expected to shift focus toward selling off their stock to prepare for the new harvest.
In Greece, trade remains limited and prices are high. In Crete, for example, producers are holding back on selling their olive oil, expecting prices for good quality oil to rise further, possibly reaching €3.90–€4/kg. This cautious approach reflects a broader "wait-and-see" attitude across the Greek market, with many watching price developments in early July before making decisions.
Recent Weekly Market Trends (Late June 2025)
Spanish Olive Oil Market
Extra virgin olive oil at origin, averaging €3.60 per kilogram, with a minimum of €3.27 and a maximum of €3.95 per kilogram. In Andalusia, EVOO is priced at about €3.51 per kilogram, down 2.5% over the same period, while virgin olive oil stands at €3.01 per kilogram and lampant at €2.79 per kilogram.
Italian Olive Oil Market
Italy’s market remains under pressure due to limited stock and ongoing production challenges. EVOO at origin averages €9.60 per kilogram as of early June, with current prices decreasing to €8.90 per kg, reflecting persistent scarcity and strong demand for high-quality oils. Export demand continues to be robust, but production will remain constrained for the coming season.
Greek Olive Oil Market
Extra Virgin Olive Oil at origin ranging from €3.75 to €4.10 per kilogram, virgin olive oil at €3.60 per kilogram, and lampante at €2.45 per kilogram, according to our experts.
Tunisian and Turkish Olive Oil Market
Tunisia has experienced a record production season and continues to export large volumes, but export values are under pressure due to global price corrections. EVOO at origin is priced at €3.78 per kilogram, with lampante at €2.55 per kilogram as of late May. Turkey, after lifting its export ban, is offering highly competitive export prices, with EVOO at origin at €4.82 per kilogram, virgin olive oil at €3.99 per kilogram, and lampant at €3.84 per kilogram as of mid-June. Turkey’s record harvest and increased exports are influencing the broader Mediterranean market.
Portuguese Olive Oil Market
Portugal has seen improved weather conditions, stabilizing production and prices. EVOO at origin is priced at €3.78 per kilogram and virgin olive oil at €3.15 per kilogram as of early June. High-quality oils remain scarce and command a premium.
Next Crop Expectations (2025/26 Season)
- Spain: Expectations are positive, with ideal weather and abundant flowering suggesting a potential harvest of up to 1.6 million tons under optimal conditions. The final outcome will depend on summer weather.
- Greece: Orchards in the Peloponnese show 15–20% more flowering nodes than last year, indicating a potentially strong crop. Producers remain cautious and are focused on clearing inventories before the new harvest.
- Italy: Production is expected to remain constrained due to drought and alternate-bearing cycles. There may be some rebound in northern and central regions, but overall output is likely to stay below historical averages.
- Tunisia and Turkey: Both countries anticipate robust harvests, with Tunisia projecting continued strong exports and Turkey maintaining record production. Weather remains a concern for small, non-irrigated producers.
- Morocco: Faces an ongoing drought and expects another below-average harvest, prompting continued imports to meet domestic demand.
How Current Heatwaves in Europe Are Shaping the Market
In the Fields: A Threat to Quantity and Quality
Across Andalusia, Greece, and Italy, temperatures are soaring past 38–40°C, and the dry spell is relentless. For olive producers, this means the crucial pit-hardening stage—when olives develop their stones and oil accumulates—is under threat. High heat and drought can stunt oil formation, cause sunburn, and even lead to fruit drop. A potential double hit: lower yields and oil with altered flavor profiles and less antioxidant power. On the buyers' side, the upcoming harvest could be both scarcer and potentially less consistent in quality.
In the Warehouse: Securing Storage and Transportation Conditions
Heatwaves don’t stop at the orchard gate since stored olive oil is just as vulnerable. When temperatures spike in storage areas or during transport, the risk of oxidation, rancidity, and flavor loss increases. For producers and B2B buyers, this is a critical moment to double down on best practices, because every batch counts in a market where quality premiums are at a premium position in terms of pricing and demand.
Seasonal Outlook and Commercial Activity
Market activity is expected to slow during August due to summer holidays and preparations for the new harvest. Most commercial activity will pause and resume in early September, when the first signs of the new season’s price and supply trends will emerge. The market’s future direction will depend on producer behavior, stock levels held by packers, and global demand, all of which will shape the outlook for the months ahead.
The information provided on this website, including market prices, insights, and projections, is for general informational purposes only. While we strive to ensure accuracy and timeliness, we make no guarantees regarding the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the information presented. Users are solely responsible for independently verifying the data and assessing its relevance to their specific circumstances before making any decisions.Wikifarmer and its operators shall not be held liable for any losses, damages, or consequences arising from the use of the information provided herein.
Sources:
https://www.internationaloliveoil.org/
https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu
https://www.internationaloliveoil.org/
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