After the Easter holidays, the European olive oil market has experienced renewed activity, though significant price changes are still limited and uncertainty lingers. Both buyers and sellers are approaching the market with caution, leading to regional variations in price trends and supply dynamics.
In Spain, the market remains steady as producers in need of cash continue to sell. Prices for extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) have recently fallen below €4.00/kg, averaging between €3.80 and €4.20/kg for conventional EVOO, and €5.00 to €5.50/kg for organic. Lower-quality olive oils are more readily available, while high-quality EVOO is becoming increasingly scarce and commands a premium. Over the past 10 days, EVOO prices in Spain have decreased by 0.81%, with virgin olive oil down 0.86% and lampante up slightly by 0.35%.
The past few days, the weather in the Iberian Peninsula has been sunny, which is favorable for the upcoming blooming season of the olive trees. While a good bloom is expected, there are concerns that a potential two-week delay could cause issues with later blooming due to rising temperatures. However, forecasts of some rainfall and mild spring temperatures are helping to alleviate market concerns. Portugal's market remains stable, with no significant price changes reported compared to last month.
In Italy, the market is stable, with prices remaining high due to tight supply and steady demand for premium products. Conventional Italian EVOO trades around €9.25 to €9.55/kg, while organic EVOO is priced at €10.40/kg. Buyers are primarily restocking and waiting for potential price drops, but significant decreases are not anticipated soon.
Across the Mediterranean, Greece is seeing some activity following Easter, with prices experiencing a slight increase but no major changes. Prices vary based on the quality of the extra virgin olive oil available. Many stocks remain unsold in Crete and throughout Greece as producers are reluctant to sell at low prices. Experts report that nearly 70% of the olive oil produced in Crete is still unsold.
In addition, the EU has removed import tariffs on Chilean olive oil, which is expected to increase Chile’s market share in Europe and intensify competition for Mediterranean producers.
Olive Oil Market Forecast: Trends and Insights in Europe
- Spain: EVOO prices are likely to stabilize or decrease at a slower rate (0.5–1%) as the market digests improved production forecasts and seasonal demand factors. High-quality EVOO will remain scarce and expensive.
- Italy: Prices are expected to remain stable at high levels due to ongoing supply constraints and steady demand for premium oils.
- Greece: Further price stabilization is anticipated, with some producers becoming more willing to sell as financial needs increase, though large volumes remain unsold.
- Portugal, Turkey, Tunisia: Stable to slightly declining prices are likely, with Tunisia and Turkey offering competitive alternatives for buyers seeking to diversify supply sources.
Overall, the market is searching for a new equilibrium. Production increases across the Mediterranean are expected to normalize prices, potentially returning to historical levels of €3.50–€4.00/kg for extra virgin olive oil after two years of price skyrocketing due to limited production. However, volatility remains due to ongoing climate risks, stock levels, and global economic pressures.
Opportunities for Olive Oil Buyers
For olive oil buyers, the current market landscape presents both challenges and unique opportunities:
Scarcity of Premium Quality: As high-quality extra virgin olive oil becomes increasingly rare in Spain and Italy, it is now an opportune moment to secure premium lots if the business relies on top-tier products. Taking early action may assist in locking in supplies before further tightening or price increases occur.
Competitive Alternatives: The rise in production from Turkey and Tunisia, along with competitive pricing, allows buyers to diversify their sourcing strategies. Exploring these markets can help maintain supply stability and facilitate better negotiation terms, particularly as these countries are keen to expand their presence in the European market.
Timing Purchases: With prices stabilizing and some producers, especially in Greece and Crete, still holding back stocks, there may be opportunities for strategic purchasing as financial pressures prompt more sellers to enter the market in the coming weeks.
Weather Considerations: It is advisable to monitor weather developments in the Iberian Peninsula and Mediterranean closely. A favorable bloom and mild spring could enhance supply prospects, potentially leading to more favorable buying conditions as the season progresses.
Latest Trends in Olive Oil Consumption (2025)
Following a steep decline in 2023/24 caused by high prices, global olive oil consumption is experiencing a robust recovery. Recent reports from AICA highlight notable exports and domestic trade increases in Spain, the leading country in the olive oil market. This year, we are seeing a significant rebound from last year's 2.6% drop, which saw consumption fall to 2,780,000 tons due to price surges.
Regional Dynamics
- European Union: Despite being the world’s largest market, the EU’s share of global consumption has dropped from over 70% in 2004/05 to around 45% today, reflecting slower growth and even declines in some traditional markets.
- Eastern Europe: Consumption is growing fastest here, at 5–6% annually, while Western Europe sees more moderate growth (1–3% per year).
- United States: Consumption is projected to rise 8% in 2024/25 compared to the five-year average, driven by health trends and broader culinary adoption.
- Turkey: Domestic consumption is expected to surge by 21% in 2024/25, reflecting both increased production and growing local demand.
- China & Australia: Both countries are set to significantly increase their imports, indicating expanding consumer interest beyond traditional markets.
Consumer Behavior and Preferences
As prices stabilize, consumers who had switched to cheaper alternatives (like sunflower oil) during the price surge are expected to return to olive oil, though the pace depends on continued price moderation. In addition, there is a noticeable shift toward premium, extra virgin, and organic olive oils, especially in Western Europe and North America. Health-conscious consumers are prioritizing quality, sustainability, and ethical sourcing.
Supermarkets' private-label olive oils are gaining market share, offering consumers more affordable options and increasing competition among established brands. Regarding the sector's digitization, e-commerce and direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales are rising, allowing small and premium producers to reach broader audiences. Subscription models and online marketplaces for high-quality olive oils are also gaining popularity.
Health and Sustainability Drivers
The trend toward minimally processed, cold-pressed, and nutrient-rich oils is accelerating. Olive oil’s reputation for supporting cardiovascular health, weight management, and overall wellness is a major consumption driver worldwide, driving consumption upwards. In addition, the global popularity of Mediterranean cuisine and its association with healthy living continues to fuel demand, especially for extra virgin olive oil.
In markets like France, nutritional (Nutri-Score) and environmental (Eco-score, Planet-Score) labeling influence consumer choices, with organic and sustainably produced oils gaining ground.
Global olive oil consumption is projected to grow steadily, with an annual increase of about 3–5% in Europe and significant gains in emerging markets. The demand for premium, organic, and minimally processed olive oils is expected to surpass that for refined or lower-quality options, fueled by rising health and sustainability trends. This global rebound in olive oil consumption is driven by health awareness, a shift toward premium products, the rise of digital retail, and increasing interest in new markets. While traditional consumption in Europe remains stable, the strongest growth is occurring in Eastern Europe, North America, Turkey, and Asia, where consumers show a clear preference for high-quality, healthy, and sustainably produced oils.
In conclusion, the European olive oil market is cautiously regaining momentum following the Easter break, with regional differences and price hesitations reflecting broader uncertainties. While high-quality extra virgin olive oil remains scarce and commands a premium, evolving dynamics—such as rising competition from non-EU producers, favorable weather forecasts, and shifting consumer preferences—offer both challenges and opportunities for buyers. Industry stakeholders must stay agile, monitor climatic and economic developments, and seize timely sourcing opportunities to navigate the months ahead effectively.
