Overview
In August 2025, the Mediterranean olive oil market navigates depleted end-of-season inventories, summer heat challenges, and shifting trade dynamics under new U.S. tariffs. While signs of stabilization appear, the 2025/26 harvest will determine the sector's next trajectory.
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New EU-US Tariff Agreement
The EU agreed to a 15% U.S.-imposed tariff on table olives and olive oil, averting a threatened 30% hike, under a trade deal between President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The deal still requires ratification by all 27 EU member states.
The olive oil sector has criticized the measure: Spain warns of a competitive disadvantage, Italy projects high export losses, and Greece has formed a working group to explore exemptions.
Market Updates by Country
Spain
Spain recorded a total trading volume of 1,465 tons in the last week, with Extra Virgin Olive Oil (EVOO) dominating both volume and value. EVOO traded at €4.00/kg (774 tons, 53% of total volume), up 1.14% weekly, reflecting steady upward momentum and strong demand for premium grades despite inventory depletion and quality concerns from summer heatwaves. Virgin olive oil (VOO) traded at €3.55/kg (126 tons, 9% of total volume), an 11% discount to EVOO, while lampante oil was priced at €3.23/kg (565 tons, 39% of total volume), maintaining competitiveness for industrial and export use.
The price increases reflect tightening end-of-season inventories and a tightening supply-demand balance as the October harvest approaches. Export demand remains steady, and further upward pressure is likely as summer heat threatens quality and accelerates stock depletion. Producers are strategically prioritizing premium EVOO sales to maximize value.
Italy
Italy's olive oil market experienced a minor price correction this week, with EVOO trading around €9.00/kg, slightly down week-over-week and month-over-month. Despite these slight declines, Italian EVOO continues to command nearly triple Spanish prices.
Long-term challenges persist, particularly in southern regions like Puglia, Calabria, and Sicily, where drought, extreme heatwaves, and Xylella fastidiosa continue to limit output. In recent years, production has fallen steadily, leaving Italy heavily reliant on imports to meet domestic and export demand. Italian buyers are currently securing imported EVOO from Spain and Greece to offset domestic shortages, contributing to short-term price stabilization.
Greece
The Greek olive oil market saw a price surge, breaking recent stability as end-of-season supply constraints intensified. In Crete, EVOO ranged from €4.10 to €4.47/kg, VOO averaged at €3.50–3.90/kg, and lampante oil traded around €2.50–2.90/kg. No updated quotes were reported in the Peloponnese.
The price increase is driven by dwindling high-quality stocks, with Greek producers rushing to sell remaining supplies before summer heat threatens quality. Italian buyers compete for top-tier Greek EVOO to cover domestic shortfalls, adding further upward pressure. Export demand remains steady, although new U.S. tariff agreements will likely force producers to seek alternative markets to mitigate losses.
Portugal
Portugal's 2024/25 harvest was one of the country's largest to date. EVOO prices reflect stable market conditions, supported by steady domestic and export demand. Portuguese producers have achieved quality improvements, helped by favourable winter rains in 2024. The country continues to maintain a strong export presence, reinforcing its position in key international markets.
Tunisia
Tunisia's olive oil market continues to grow steadily, with EVOO prices showing consistent monthly gains. Domestic stocks are nearly depleted, and summer heat threatens quality, prompting buyers to compete for remaining volumes.
The country has emerged as a major export powerhouse and exports are rising in volume but declining in value due to lower global prices. Tunisia now faces potential U.S. tariffs of 25%, prompting authorities to explore alternative markets.
Turkey
Turkey continues to position itself as one of the most cost-competitive suppliers to European and global markets, with EVOO offering attractive prices among major producers. The 2024/25 season saw record production, nearly double the previous year. Domestic EVOO prices have declined slightly, reflecting the strong production surge.
Comparative Price Analysis
Extra Virgin Olive Oil
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Italy maintains its position as the premium-priced origin, with EVOO commanding €9.00-9.30 per kilogram, representing a 125-132% premium over Spanish oils and more than double Greek pricing levels. This premium reflects the country's severe production constraints, with domestic output remaining critically low due to drought, disease pressures, and structural challenges in southern growing regions. Italy remains focused on its premium market segments where consumers are willing to pay substantial premiums for domestic origin and perceived quality advantages.
Spain's 7.2% price increase from €3.73 to €4.00 per kilogram between July 31 and August 20 signals growing supply tightness as end-of-season inventory levels decline and quality preservation concerns intensify during the summer heat. Pricing shows Spain's competitive positioning for bulk buyers.
The absence of current Greek pricing data for August 20 suggests limited trading activity and supply exhaustion in Greek markets, where prices were previously competitive at €4.15 per kilogram in late July.
Virgin Olive Oil
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Spain's VOO prices rose 6.9% from €3.32 to €3.55 per kilogram between July 31 and August 20, reflecting the same supply tightening dynamics affecting the broader olive oil market. End-of-season inventory constraints and summer heat preservation concerns drive upward pressure across all quality grades.
The absence of Greek and Italian VOO pricing data signals that these origins have largely abandoned the middle-tier virgin category in favour of focusing their limited production on higher-value EVOO segments.
Lampante
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Spain shows a 8.4% price increase from €2.98 to €3.23 per kilogram between July 31 and August 20, demonstrating strong industrial demand for this refining-grade oil.
The absence of Greek and Italian pricing data suggests inventory depletion in this category, as well as the countries' strategic focus on premium segments. Spain's Lampante pricing maintains logical quality differentials, trading 19% below VOO (€3.55/kg) and 24% below EVOO (€4.00/kg).
Market Sentiment & Buyer Behaviour
Consumer Trends:
- Italian domestic olive oil consumption has decreased, as buyers increasingly choose cheaper imported alternatives.
- Global search data shows rising interest in organic olive oil.
- Demand for premium products remains strong, particularly for oils with clear origin or organic certification.
Market Sentiment:
- Industry leaders describe the market as moving from a challenging period toward a more stable and promising environment, increasing advertising investment to support recovery.
- Buyers remain cautious due to summer storage pressures; temperatures above 15–25°C can accelerate oil degradation and alter flavor profiles.
Supply Dynamics:
- End-of-season inventory depletion is creating upward price pressure, especially in Greece and Tunisia, where Italian packers are actively sourcing to cover domestic shortfalls.
- Quality concerns from summer heat are pushing producers to sell remaining stocks quickly, further tightening supply.
Trading Activity:
- Despite price movements, overall trading volumes are subdued, which is typical for summer.
- Italian consumption of domestic EVOO remains low, with continued preference for imported alternatives.
Market Forecast: Looking Ahead
- Harvest & Weather Outlook: Early indicators suggest potentially strong crops in Spain and Greece, though summer heat in Spain and Portugal and persistent water stress across the Mediterranean create yield uncertainties. Spain's accumulated inventory provides some buffer until the October harvest.
- Price & Supply Outlook: Stock depletion in Greece and Tunisia will continue to support higher prices for remaining volumes, particularly for premium EVOO. Italian production remains constrained, keeping domestic prices elevated. Portuguese and Turkish oils are expected to maintain stable, competitive pricing in export markets.
- Trade & Policy: New U.S. tariffs pose challenges for EU producers while strengthening the position of non-EU exporters such as Turkey. Producers are increasingly targeting premium segments and emerging markets to offset tariff-related losses.
- Industry Adaptation: Major producers are increasing investment in promotion and diversification strategies to mitigate volatility and build long-term resilience.
Conclusion
The late August 2025 olive oil market shows clear supply tightening across all quality grades, with Spain leading price gains and Italy reinforcing its premium EVOO segment. Greece remains active despite limited stocks, reflecting strategic segmentation under production constraints.
These dynamics mark a shift from the 2022–2024 crisis toward a more balanced market, yet end-of-season stock depletion, heat-driven quality risks, and U.S. tariffs keep volatility elevated. The upcoming September harvest will determine whether this recovery stabilizes or faces renewed disruption.
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