In August 2026 Spain exported extra virgin olive oil at an average unit value of 4.58 €/kg, while the average origin price that month was 3.50 €/kg, a gap of 1.07 €/kg, nearly triple the 2017-2022 average, according to a Wikifarmer analysis of Eurostat export data and the weekly prices member states report to the European Commission. Spain's export price follows the origin price with a lag of one or two months and only partly, so the gap narrows when prices rise and widens when they fall. This matters now that Spain expects 1.6 million tonnes of olive oil in 2026/27 and origin prices have been falling since the spring.
Spain's export price ran 15% above the origin price from 2017 to 2022
The export price here is the unit value of all Spanish extra virgin exports, the declared value of shipments divided by their weight at the Spanish border (Eurostat Comext). The origin price is the monthly average of the weekly national average price published by the European Commission (Agri-food Data Portal). From 2017 to 2022 the export price was on average 0.38 €/kg above the origin price, or 14.6%, and from 2024 to August 2026 it was 0.74 €/kg above, or 15.8%.
| Year | Export price, €/kg | Origin price, €/kg | Gap, €/kg | Gap, % of origin price |
| 2017 | 4.04 | 3.79 | 0.24 | 6.4% |
| 2018 | 3.57 | 2.96 | 0.61 | 21.2% |
| 2019 | 2.90 | 2.34 | 0.56 | 24.0% |
| 2020 | 2.69 | 2.15 | 0.53 | 25.1% |
| 2021 | 3.28 | 3.09 | 0.19 | 6.2% |
| 2022 | 3.98 | 3.86 | 0.12 | 4.4% |
| 2023 | 6.28 | 6.74 | -0.46 | -5.9% |
| 2024 | 8.20 | 7.47 | 0.73 | 11.0% |
| 2025 | 4.80 | 4.04 | 0.77 | 19.2% |
| 2026, January to August | 4.78 | 4.07 | 0.71 | 18.0% |
Source: Wikifarmer analysis of Eurostat Comext (Spanish exports, CN code 1509 10 20 to 2021 and 1509 20 00 from 2022) and weekly prices from the European Commission's Agri-food Data Portal. Averages of each year's monthly prices. 2026 covers January to August, with provisional data.
In 2023 the export price fell below the origin price
In 2023, when the origin price averaged 6.74 €/kg, Spain's export price averaged 6.28 €/kg and was below the same month's origin price in 9 of the 12 months. The average gap turned negative, 0.46 €/kg below the origin price, or 5.9% below, while from 2017 to 2022 a negative gap appeared in only 5 of 72 months. The data do not show the mechanism. An export recorded by customs in one month may have been agreed earlier, or supplied from oil bought more cheaply, and either would hold the export price back in a sharp rise.
Spain's export price follows with a lag of one or two months
When Spain's origin price changed by 10% in a month, the export price changed by about 2% in the same month and by another 3% the next month, and by about 7% in total within four months, so about 70% of the change passed through, with a delay. As a result the gap was smaller after three months of rising origin prices and larger after three months of falling prices, with a correlation of -0.71 over 116 months from January 2017 to August 2026.
Unit value of Spanish extra virgin exports and the national origin price, €/kg. Source: Wikifarmer analysis of Eurostat and European Commission data.
From May to August 2026 the origin price fell from 4.16 to 3.50 €/kg and the export price from 5.00 to 4.58 €/kg, so the gap widened from 0.84 to 1.07 €/kg, the sixth largest in 116 months. The largest was 1.39 €/kg in July 2024, when the origin price was falling from the very high levels of early 2024.
In Greece the gap depends on the destination
Greek extra virgin oil shipped to Italy, about 62% of export volume since 2017, sold on average only 8% above the Greek origin price in both 2017-2022 and 2024-2026, and its price followed the origin price within the same month. In August 2026, shipments to Italy averaged 3.96 €/kg against a Greek origin price of 3.60 €/kg. Shipments to other countries sold on average 54% above the origin price since 2017, or about 60% excluding 2023, and in August 2026 averaged 6.98 €/kg.
The gap for all Greek exports, 28% on average since 2017, therefore also depends on Italy's share. From March to August 2026, Italy took less than half of Greek exports every month, against 62% over 2022-2026, and at the same time shipments to other countries stayed expensive while the origin price fell, going from 64% above it in May to 94% above in August. Together, these lifted the overall gap to 2.11 €/kg in August, from 1.48 €/kg in May. Greek origin prices move close to Spanish ones, since Greek olive oil prices usually follow Spain's within three weeks.
The gap is not a profit margin
The gap between the export price and the origin price includes bottling, transport to the border and the mix of shipments, since the same code covers bulk oil and bottles, and it is affected by the time between agreeing a sale and recording the shipment. It shows how the trade price relates to the price at the mill, not how much exporters earn. The same question one step further down the chain, how olive oil shelf prices follow producer prices, is covered separately.
Frequently asked questions
How far above the origin price is Spanish olive oil exported? From 2017 to 2022 the export price of extra virgin oil was on average 0.38 €/kg or 14.6% above the origin price, and from 2024 to August 2026 it was 0.74 €/kg or 15.8% above.
Why does the gap widen when prices fall? Spain's export price follows the origin price with a lag of one or two months, so when the origin price falls the export price stays higher for a while. One possible reason is that shipments are agreed before they are recorded, but the data do not show this.
Can the export price be below the origin price? Yes. In 2023, with origin prices rising, Spain's export price was below the origin price in 9 of the 12 months.
Is the gap the exporter's profit? No. It includes bottling, transport, the mix of shipments and the time between agreeing a sale and shipping it.
Why does the Greek gap vary so much by destination? Oil shipped to Italy, about 62% of Greek exports since 2017, sold on average 8% above the Greek origin price, while oil for other countries sold 54% above.
Important notes
The analysis is Wikifarmer's. The export price is the monthly unit value of all extra virgin exports from Spain or Greece according to Eurostat, under code 1509 10 20 to 2021 and 1509 20 00 from 2022, without linking levels across the two codes. The origin price is the monthly average of the weekly national average extra virgin price on the European Commission's Agri-food Data Portal. The lag was estimated by regressing monthly changes in the export price on changes in the origin price in the same month and the three previous months. The correlation between the gap and the change in the origin price is partly mechanical, since the origin price enters both, but the Spanish result is much stronger than that alone would produce. For Greece the same test gives no clear result. 2026 data are provisional.
Sources
- Eurostat. (2026). International trade in goods database, Comext dataset DS-045409. European Commission.
- European Commission. (2026). Agri-food Data Portal, API guide. Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development.
