Do olive oil shelf prices fall with farm prices

Spain's producer price for extra virgin olive oil has fallen 61.5% from its January 2024 peak, while the consumer price index for olive oil has fallen 43.1% from its own peak, according to a Wikifarmer analysis of Eurostat and European Commission data. In September 2026 the producer price stood 36.4% above January 2021 and the shelf index 56.1% above it. The data show no sign that shelf prices respond more slowly to falls than to rises, but they follow producer prices by roughly half and with a delay of months. In Greece the shelf index is now closer to its 2021 level than the producer price is.

Spanish producer prices have given back three quarters of their rise

Spain's average producer price for extra virgin rose from €2.53 per kg in January 2021 to €8.97 per kg in January 2024, an increase of 254.1%, and was €3.46 per kg in September 2026 (European Commission). Eurostat's harmonised consumer price index for olive oil in Spain rose 174.3% over the same period, peaked in April 2024 and has fallen 43.1% since (Eurostat).

Measured from January 2021, the producer price has given back about 75% of its rise and the shelf index just over 55%. Relative to the overall food price index, olive oil on Spanish shelves is still 14.6% dearer than in January 2021, so general food inflation does not account for the whole gap.

Country	Producer price, fall from peak	Shelf index, fall from peak	Producer price, September 2026 vs January 2021	Shelf index, September 2026 vs January 2021
Spain	−61.5%	−43.1%	+36.4%	+56.1%
Greece	−58.9%	−40.4%	+40.3%	+27.0%
Italy	−50.5%	−21.4%	0.0%	+51.4%

Source: Wikifarmer analysis of the Eurostat harmonised consumer price index for olive oil (COICOP 2018, code CP01151) and European Commission weekly producer prices for extra virgin olive oil, monthly averages, to September 2026. Producer price peak: January 2024 in Spain and Greece, July 2025 in Italy. Shelf index peak: April 2024 in Spain, July 2024 in Greece, June 2024 in Italy.

Rows of filled glass bottles with orange caps moving along a conveyor on a bottling line in a factory

In Spain the shelf index moves most closely with producer prices one to two months earlier, in Greece about four months earlier

Shelf prices follow producer prices one to four months later

Spain's shelf index peaked three months after the producer price, and Greece's six months after. In the monthly data, changes in the shelf index line up most closely with producer price changes one to two months earlier in Spain and about four months earlier in Greece. The producer prices themselves move in a chain, since Greek producer prices usually follow Spain's within three weeks. The delay to the shelf fits the time oil takes to move from the bulk market through bottling into shop stocks, but the data do not show the cause.

Shelf prices respond to falls as much as to rises

For every 10% change in the producer price, Spain's shelf index moved on average about 5.4% when prices rose and 5.8% when they fell, within the following six months. In Greece the figures were 4.7% and 5.3%. The difference between rises and falls is not statistically significant in either country, so the data give no evidence that shelf prices react more slowly when producer prices fall. The test was run in 20 variants with different periods and delays, and only one showed a significant difference, which is what chance alone would produce.

A shelf price that follows the producer price by about half fits the fact that part of the final price does not depend on the oil, such as packaging, transport and distribution. Spain's overall food price index rose 36.2% between January 2021 and September 2026, and rising costs beyond the oil are consistent with the Spanish shelf index having given back a smaller share of its rise than the producer price, although the data cannot prove it.

In Greece the shelf is closer to 2021 levels than the producer price

Greece's producer price for extra virgin rose from €2.58 per kg in January 2021 to €8.81 per kg in January 2024 and was €3.62 per kg in September 2026, 58.9% below the peak but 40.3% above January 2021. The Greek shelf index is only 27.0% above January 2021. Relative to the overall food price index, olive oil on Greek shelves is now 5.5% cheaper than it was then.

In Italy the shelf index remains 51% above 2021

Italy's producer price for extra virgin stayed close to €9.60 per kg from April to August 2025 and fell to €4.76 per kg in September 2026, the same level as in January 2021. The Italian shelf index has fallen only 21.4% from its June 2024 peak and remains 51.4% above January 2021. The Italian shelf index moves only weakly with the Italian producer price, probably because Italian shops also sell a large amount of oil from Spain and other countries, so this comparison explains less than it does for Spain.

The shelf index covers every olive oil households buy

Eurostat's index covers every olive oil grade and every pack size that households buy, including imported oil, while the producer price refers only to extra virgin at first sale. The index therefore shows how much shelf prices changed, not what a litre of extra virgin costs, and the distance between the two series does not measure anyone's profit margin. January 2021 serves as the base month rather than the low point, which came in July 2020, and the shares of the rise given back are measured in log terms. Portugal is left out because its producer price series has too many gaps.

The bigger 2026/27 crop will reach the shelf with a delay

The 2026/27 season opens with a bigger crop with producer prices that have already halved. If the relationship of recent years holds, a further fall in producer prices would show up on shelves over the following months, by roughly half as much. For anyone weighing when it pays to buy olive oil, shelf prices will move later and less than the price the producer receives.