Olive oil 2026/27 outlook as prices fall and crops grow

No official body has published a production forecast for the 2026/27 olive oil season, and none will before October. What exists instead is a set of signals from the field and from the trade, and they point in the same direction. Spain is heading for a substantially larger crop than the 1.3 million tonnes it closed 2025/26 with, Greece's sector expects around 300,000 tonnes against roughly 232,000 last season, and the president of Greece's national olive oil interprofessional organisation describes farm-gate prices of about EUR 4 a kilo as low for producers and good for consumers. The Mediterranean is entering a recovery year, with prices already down by half from where they were at the start of the last one.

The one thing that could change that picture is the summer. Repeated heatwaves from June to August hit the main growing regions of Spain, Greece and Türkiye during the months when the fruit sets its final size, and how much they cost will become clear only when Andalusia presents its harvest estimate in early October.

Where Spain starts from

Spain's Agencia de Información y Control Alimentarios closed the 2025/26 campaign at 1,298,503 tonnes, 8.6% below the previous season's 1,421,097 tonnes and short of the 1.4 million tonnes the initial autumn estimate had projected. Winter storms in December, January and February accounted for the gap, delaying harvest and knocking fruit from trees in Jaén, which finished around 100,000 tonnes below its regional forecast. The full picture of stocks and monthly outputs is in our analysis of the June AICA data, which shows total stocks at 683,345 tonnes at the end of June after four consecutive months of drawdown, and an estimated inter-campaign carryover of around 260,000 tonnes.

That carryover matters for what comes next. It is about 10% below last year's but still ample, which means the new crop arrives in a market that is not short of oil. Producer prices in Jaén stood at EUR 378.5 per 100 kg in mid-June according to the International Olive Council, 7.5% above the same week a year earlier but far below the levels of 2023 and 2024.

What the field assessments say about the new crop

The most detailed early reading of the Spanish crop comes from trade inspections rather than official sources. A procurement team visiting 13 groves across Jaén and Córdoba in June reported tree loads of 70% to 75% in Jaén and a wider range of 20% to 80% in Córdoba, with production projected to rise about 50% in Jaén and 30% in Córdoba year on year. That supports a preliminary Spanish estimate of 1.7 to 1.8 million tonnes, with the explicit caveat that the final figure would depend on how the fruit came through the peak summer heat.

The caveat has since become the central question. Spain, southern Italy and Greece all recorded extended periods above 35°C in July and August, and prolonged heat during pit hardening and early oil accumulation reduces fruit size and oil content even where the trees carry a heavy set. Last year's experience is instructive here. The Andalusian aforo in October 2025 described exactly this pattern: a wet spring that favoured the crop, followed by summer heat that made fruit development difficult, and the final figure still came in about 100,000 tonnes below the estimate, though for reasons of winter weather rather than summer.

Greece expects a recovery year at lower prices

Manolis Giannoulis, president of the National Interprofessional Organisation of Olive Oil, told Eleftheros Typos that Greek production for 2026/27 should reach around 300,000 tonnes, with increases expected across all Mediterranean-producing countries. The European Commission put Greek output for 2025/26 at 231,000 to 235,000 tonnes, so the expected rise is on the order of 30%.

The price side has already moved. Greek farm-gate prices opened the 2025/26 season at EUR 7.85 a kilo, fell to between EUR 4 and 5.50 by January, and now sit at around EUR 4. Retail has followed with a lag. Branded extra virgin that sold for EUR 13.50 to 14 a litre in 2023/24 and EUR 11.50 in October 2025 was at EUR 9.40 to 9.50 by January 2026, with some labels at EUR 7.20 and supermarket promotions reaching EUR 6.50. Giannoulis's framing, that the price is low for producers but good for consumers, describes a market that has completed its correction from the shortage years before the new crop has even been harvested.

Table olives carry stocks from bad bets on high prices

The table olive sector is entering its season with a different problem. In its announcement of 9 September, the National Interprofessional Organisation for Table Olives put the green crop of the Chalkidiki and Amfissa varieties slightly below last year's, particularly Amfissa, with very good quality characteristics, and said production could still reach last year's level if the weather in the coming weeks is favourable. New plantings of table varieties, especially Chalkidiki, are gradually coming into production and will strengthen capacity in the years ahead.

What concerned the sector more was inventory. The organisation described elevated stocks acquired through mistaken estimates made at high price levels, and called for fuller recording of both production and inventories held by processors and by growers. For the first time after a long run of growth, Greek table olive exports fell in the first half of 2026, by 0.99% in value and 2.25% in volume according to ELSTAT. Labour shortages at harvest and high energy costs feeding into fertiliser, crop protection, transport and packaging were listed as the sector's persistent constraints.

What the October aforo will settle

The Andalusian regional government presents its production estimate for the new season in the first days of October, with the national ministry following about a week later. The International Olive Council and the European Commission's market observatory will publish their first hard readings on the new campaign from November. Until then, the 1.7 to 1.8 million-tonne figure for Spain and the 300,000-tonne figure for Greece are the sector's own expectations rather than official numbers.

For Greek producers, the question this autumn is the reverse of the one they faced in 2023. Then it was how high prices would climb on a shortage. Now it is where they settle when a recovery crop across the Mediterranean meets ample carryover and a price that has already fallen by half. A summer that trimmed the Spanish crop meaningfully would support prices. A summer that did less damage than feared would extend the correction. The aforo is the first number that will say which.

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