Olive oil 2026/27 outlook for crops and prices

The first official forecasts of the 2026/27 olive oil season are out, and they confirm what the field and the trade had been signalling. Spain's agriculture ministry put the national crop at 1,602,596 tonnes on 1 October, 23% above last season, two days after the regional government of Andalusia, which produces almost four fifths of Spain's olive oil, put its own harvest at 1,261,200 tonnes, 23.9% above the final output of its previous campaign and 44% above the average of the last five. Greece's sector expects around 300,000 tonnes against roughly 232,000 last season, and the president of Greece's national olive oil interprofessional organisation describes farm-gate prices of about EUR 4 a kilo as low for producers and good for consumers. The Mediterranean is entering a recovery year with prices already down by half from where they started the last one.

The summer did not reverse that picture. Repeated heatwaves from June to August hit the main growing regions of Spain, Greece and Türkiye during the months when the fruit sets its final size, and the Andalusian estimate reflects both sides of the season, a very wet winter that favoured the groves and temperatures well above normal in recent months that limited part of their potential. The ministry described the forecast as a medium-high crop that reflects the weather of the campaign, and said it guarantees supply and stability for the domestic market and for exports.

Spain's first aforo puts the crop at 1.6 million tonnes

Andalusia accounts for 79% of the national total. Castilla-La Mancha, the second producing region, is forecast at 152,000 tonnes, 10% more than last season, and Extremadura at 97,300 tonnes, up 24%, while output is expected to fall in six regions, among them Aragón at 12,490 tonnes, down 27%. The national figure is built from the forecasts the regions submit under Royal Decree 84/2021, with the ministry estimating the figures for Castilla y León, Galicia and the Basque Country, which did not submit an aforo.

The Andalusian estimate was presented in Mengíbar, in Jaén, by the Andalusian agriculture minister Ramón Fernández-Pacheco, who described it as a thermometer for the markets. It points to a medium-high campaign. Jaén alone is forecast at 575,000 tonnes of oil, 45.6% of the Andalusian total and 36% of Spain's, with an oil yield close to 20%, followed by Córdoba at 339,700 tonnes and Seville at 142,000. The volume of olives for milling is put at 6,849,200 tonnes, of which 2,890,000 come from Jaén and 1,985,200 from Córdoba. A year ago the first provincial estimate for Jaén was 2.3 million tonnes of olives.

The forecast extends beyond oil. Table olive production is estimated at 466,037 tonnes, 9% above last season and 7.2% above the five-year average, led by Seville at 320,000 tonnes, Córdoba at 70,066 and Málaga at 63,373, with the Hojiblanca variety in Córdoba up 97%. Organic olive oil is expected to reach 60,400 tonnes, 80.5% more than in 2024/25, on an organic olive area that has grown 77% in ten years to 132,124 hectares, 8.3% of the Andalusian olive grove for oil. The harvest is expected to generate 21.6 million working days, 63.7% of them in picking.

Two cautions come with the number. This year the Junta revised its method and removed the teams of field assessors it had used in previous seasons, citing the distortion caused in recent years by data deviations linked to climate change. And the farm organisation ASAJA in Córdoba had asked for the presentation to be postponed, arguing that the field data were collected weeks earlier, before a late-September heatwave with temperatures forecast up to 39°C struck during lipogenesis, the phase in which the olive accumulates its oil. Spain's agriculture minister Luis Planas refused on the grounds that publication is a legal obligation, and said the estimate can be adjusted through the season if autumn rain arrives. The previous campaign showed how far the gap can run, when Jaén's aforo of 475,000 tonnes ended close to 400,000 according to the farm union UPA.

Spain may withdraw oil from the market for the first time

The size of the forecast brings forward a mechanism Spain has never used. Article 167a of Regulation (EU) No 1308/2013 allows member states to lay down marketing rules for olive oil in order to improve and stabilise the functioning of its market. Spain transposed it through Royal Decree 84/2021, which provides that, when conditions justify it and after consulting the regions and the sector's representative organisations, rules can be set requiring product to be withdrawn until the following campaign, with the option of sending it to non-food uses. The draft order setting such a marketing rule for the 2026/27 campaign has already been through public consultation, which closed on 13 August.

Farm organisations see the aforo as bringing activation closer. For Jesús Cózar, secretary general of UPA Andalusia, the 1,261,200 tonnes forecast for Andalusia, added to a little over 300,000 tonnes from the rest of Spain, would allow the article to be activated, while COAG's Francisco Elvira stressed that it would be the first time and that it would oblige every mill to withdraw a percentage of its oil. A few days earlier, ASAJA, COAG, UPA and Spain's agri-food cooperatives had backed the ministry's proposed measures for applying the article and asked for a public loan line so that mills can cover the financial cost of holding oil back. Once Andalusia is subtracted, the national figure leaves the rest of Spain at around 341,000 tonnes, a quantity that matches the condition Cózar had described. Presenting the national aforo in Jaén, agriculture minister Luis Planas said the ministry expects to decide in the first half of November whether to activate the marketing rule for a temporary withdrawal of olive oil. He also put total imports, including reduced-tariff imports under EU agreements, normal-tariff imports and oil processed for re-export, at no more than 5.82% of all the olive oil handled in Spain, counting both domestic consumption and exports. The percentage to be withdrawn has not been announced.

Where Spain starts from

Spain's Agencia de Información y Control Alimentarios closed the 2025/26 campaign at 1,298,503 tonnes, 8.6% below the previous season's 1,421,097 tonnes and short of the 1.4 million tonnes the initial autumn estimate had projected. Winter storms in December, January and February accounted for the gap, delaying harvest and knocking fruit from trees in Jaén. The full picture of stocks and monthly outputs is in our analysis of the June AICA data, which shows total stocks at 683,345 tonnes at the end of June after four consecutive months of drawdown, and an estimated inter-campaign carryover of around 260,000 tonnes.

That carryover matters for what comes next. It is about 10% below last year's but still ample, which means the new crop arrives into a market that is not short of oil. Producer prices in Jaén stood at EUR 378.5 per 100 kg in mid-June according to the International Olive Council, 7.5% above the same week a year earlier but far below the levels of 2023 and 2024.

What the field assessments said before the aforo

Before the official figure, the most detailed reading of the Spanish crop came from trade inspections. A procurement team visiting 13 groves across Jaén and Córdoba in June reported tree loads of 70% to 75% in Jaén and a wider range of 20% to 80% in Córdoba, with production projected to rise about 50% in Jaén and 30% in Córdoba year on year, and a preliminary Spanish estimate of 1.7 to 1.8 million tonnes that depended on how the fruit came through the summer heat.

The aforo broadly supports the direction of those assessments for Andalusia, but the national figure of 1.6 million tonnes came in below the trade's preliminary range of 1.7 to 1.8 million. Prolonged heat during pit hardening and early oil accumulation reduces fruit size and oil content even where the trees carry a heavy set, which is the effect the Junta acknowledged when it said recent temperatures had limited part of the crop's potential.

Greece expects a recovery year at lower prices

Manolis Giannoulis, president of the National Interprofessional Organisation of Olive Oil, told Eleftheros Typos that Greek production for 2026/27 should reach around 300,000 tonnes, with increases expected across all the Mediterranean producing countries. The European Commission put Greek output for 2025/26 at 231,000 to 235,000 tonnes, so the expected rise is on the order of 30%.

The price side has already moved. Greek farm-gate prices opened the 2025/26 season at EUR 7.85 a kilo, fell to between EUR 4 and 5.50 by January and now sit at around EUR 4. Retail has followed with a lag. Branded extra virgin that sold for EUR 13.50 to 14 a litre in 2023/24 and EUR 11.50 in October 2025 was at EUR 9.40 to 9.50 by January 2026, with some labels at EUR 7.20 and supermarket promotions reaching EUR 6.50. Giannoulis's framing, that the price is low for producers but good for consumers, describes a market that has completed its correction from the shortage years before the new crop has even been harvested. The margin question that follows from those prices is set out in what a kilo of olive oil costs to produce by grove type.

Table olives carry stocks from bad bets on high prices

The table olive sector is entering its season with a different problem. In its announcement of 9 September, the National Interprofessional Organisation for Table Olives put the green crop of the Chalkidiki and Amfissa varieties slightly below last year, particularly Amfissa, with very good quality characteristics, and said production could still reach last year's level if weather in the coming weeks is favourable. New plantings of table varieties, especially Chalkidiki, are gradually coming into production and will strengthen capacity in the years ahead.

What concerned the sector more was inventory. The organisation described elevated stocks acquired through mistaken estimates made at high price levels, and called for fuller recording of both production and inventories held by processors and by growers. For the first time after a long run of growth, Greek table olive exports fell in the first half of 2026, by 0.99% in value and 2.25% in volume according to ELSTAT. The Andalusian forecast of a 9% larger table olive crop adds competition on the export markets where Greek producers are already losing ground.

What the aforo changes for Greek producers

For Greek producers the question this autumn is the reverse of the one they faced in 2023. Then it was how high prices would climb on a shortage. Now it is where they settle when a recovery crop across the Mediterranean meets ample carryover and a price that has already fallen by half. Before the aforo, a summer that trimmed the Spanish crop sharply was the scenario that could have supported prices. A national crop of 1.6 million tonnes, with Andalusia 44% above its five-year average despite the heat, makes that scenario less likely, although the first harvest data in November will show how much of the forecast survives the late-September heat that ASAJA warned about.

A withdrawal under Spain's self-regulation rules would work differently, taking part of the oil off the market after harvest instead of relying on the weather to reduce the crop. Whether Spain activates it, and how large a share mills would have to hold back, is what Greek producers will want to watch until the ministry decides in the first half of November.

Source olive oil with confidence on Wikifarmer's Marketplace:

Looking for gold standard EVOO?

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website, including market prices, insights, and projections, is for general informational purposes only. While we strive to ensure accuracy and timeliness, we make no guarantees regarding the completeness, reliability, or suitability of the information presented. Users are solely responsible for independently verifying the data and assessing its relevance to their specific circumstances before making any decisions. Wikifarmer and its operators shall not be held liable for any losses, damages, or consequences arising from the use of the information provided herein.