Olive oil prices as Spain forecasts 1.6 Mt

Olive oil market digest for week 41 of 2026

Spain's Ministry of Agriculture (MAPA) put the country's 2026/27 olive oil output at 1,602,596 tonnes on 1 October, 23% more than in the previous campaign. It is the first national estimate of the new season. Spanish origin prices eased during the week, with extra virgin at €3.34/kg on Poolred for 29 September to 5 October, down from €3.38/kg a week earlier. In Greece, a Laconian cooperative sold the first early-harvest extra virgin of the season at €5.95/kg.

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Spain's olive oil market

Agriculture minister Luis Planas presented the first national aforo in Jaén on 1 October. MAPA compiled the figure from the harvest estimates sent in by the regions, and its regional table adds up exactly to the national total. After Andalusia, the largest crops are expected in Castilla-La Mancha with 152,555 tonnes (+10%) and Extremadura with 97,300 tonnes (+24%), while Catalonia expects 30,344 tonnes (−22%), Aragón 12,490 tonnes (−27%) and Murcia 10,318 tonnes (−28%).

Andalusia accounts for 78.7% of the national total with 1,261,200 tonnes (+29%), the figure in the Junta's own aforo presented on 29 September. MAPA measures the 23% rise against the previous campaign's output, and AICA had put 2025/26 production at 1,301,761 tonnes by the end of August. Planas said the final carryover stock for 2025/26 will be known in mid-October, when AICA publishes its September data.

The farm unions COAG, UPA and Asaja have asked the government to apply Article 167a of the EU's common market organisation, which allows the sector to withdraw oil from the market for a period and has never been used. Planas said the decision will be taken in the first half of November. He described imports as not significant in setting prices, and Europa Press reported that in the ministry's highest scenario imports, including those from Tunisia, would make up 5.82% of all the oil handled in Spain.

Poolred data compiled by ASAJA-Jaén for 29 September to 5 October show a slight fall in prices and more sales, with 43 trades totalling 3,214 tonnes. Other Spanish references for the same days ranged from €3.183 to €3.43/kg. Infaoliva quoted extra virgin at €3.183/kg on 2 October and the Almazaras Federadas de Córdoba at €3.325/kg, while the Junta de Andalucía's price observatory gave €3.43/kg for 28 September to 4 October.

The Objective reported on 5 October that the sale of Deoleo has stalled. According to the newspaper, the funds CVC and Alchemy have three bidders for the bottler, Italy's Coricelli at about €500 million, Dcoop at about €460 million and Acesur, and Dcoop's offer has formally expired without Dcoop withdrawing. The figures come from the newspaper's own sources.

Current origin quotations (Poolred, 29 September to 5 October):

● Extra Virgin Olive Oil (EVOO): €3.34/kg

● Virgin Olive Oil (VOO): €3.19/kg

● Lampante Olive Oil: €2.99/kg

Spain olive oil forecast by region 2026-27

Spain's olive oil forecast for 2026/27 in the seven largest producing regions, with the change against 2025/26. Source: Ministry of Agriculture (MAPA), 1 October 2026.

Greece's olive oil market

The Agioi Apostoloi agricultural olive cooperative in Laconia sold the first early-harvest extra virgin of 2026/27 at €5.95/kg. According to ot.gr, the lot was 55 tonnes, sold in a closed auction with one Greek and one Italian bidder. Olivenews described two tankers of almost 54 tonnes bound for Italy. The cooperative's first sale was €7.85/kg last season and €10.20/kg in 2024/25. Its president, Panagiotis Batsakis, said the price covers the production costs of early harvest, that the quantity is still uncertain and that picking should be finished by the end of November.

On 5 October ot.gr put producer prices for old-crop oil at €3.40 to €3.75/kg without naming a region, while on 29 September Powergame reported €3.20/kg in Messinia, with some sales at €3.40, so the level depends on the region and on the source.

The agricultural directorate of Magnesia and the Sporades expects about 1,500 tonnes of olive oil in the Almyros area this season, against 3,500 tonnes before, a fall of 57.14%. Table olives are expected at about 1,000 tonnes against a 2023 to 2025 reference of 5,200 tonnes. The directorate blames a mild winter, heat during flowering and September rains that favoured fungal disease and olive fruit fly attacks, which also raise acidity and cut phenolic content. These are local estimates made before the harvest.

Current quotations (Greece):

● New-crop EVOO, first auction in Laconia: €5.95/kg

● Old-crop oil, reported deals: €3.20-3.75/kg

● EVOO, Oleista, week 41: €3.66/kg

Italy's olive oil market

The latest stock report from the inspectorate ICQRF on the agriculture ministry's site still has data at 31 July, when stocks were 233,377 tonnes. The report with stocks at 30 September, the last day of the 2025/26 campaign, has not appeared yet, and last year's equivalent came out on 9 October.

Current quotations (Oleista, week 40):

● EVOO: €4.64/kg

Tunisia's olive oil market

Officials in Sidi Bouzid expect about 350,000 tonnes of olives in 2026/27, with picking from mid-October and 119 mills ready to process the crop. In Sousse, the regional agriculture office (CRDA) expects about 90,000 tonnes of olives, equal to 18,000 tonnes of oil, and has proposed opening the harvest on 6 November.

The CRDA in Monastir said on 5 October that last season brought a record of about 90,000 tonnes of olives there, or more than 18,000 tonnes of oil. No official national forecast has been published, and in early September, the president of the national olive producers' chamber told Mosaïque FM that she expects about 300,000 tonnes of olive oil, against 500,000 tonnes in 2025/26. ONAGRI has not yet published its export figures for September.

Turkey's olive oil market

Muğla MP Metin Ergun has put a written question to Trade Minister Ömer Bolat on falling olive oil exports. Citing the Aegean olive and olive oil exporters' association (EZZİB), he says exports for 1 November 2025 to 31 August 2026 fell to 17,721 tonnes worth $96 million, against 46,526 tonnes worth $231.6 million in 2024/25, while the average export price rose from $4.98 to $5.42 per kilo. The question does not say whether the 2024/25 figures cover the same months. The national olive council UZZK has not yet published its 2026/27 estimate.

Portugal's olive oil market

The ministry's market office (GPP) reports that the average price of packaged extra virgin fell in 21 to 27 September, with weaker demand ahead of the new campaign and competition from low-priced Tunisian oil. Portuguese ministry data run about two weeks behind, and the latest SIMA bulk price bulletin still covers week 37.

EVOO cross-market snapshot

EVOO price comparison by country, week 41 2026

Extra virgin olive oil at origin, €/kg. Each bar comes from a different source and period, shown under the country name, so the chart is indicative. The outlined bar is a single sale of new-crop, early-harvest oil by one Greek cooperative.

Market outlook

The 2026/27 campaign has opened with a first national estimate of 1,602,596 tonnes for Spain, 23% above the previous campaign, which confirms the larger Mediterranean crop expected since mid-September, and Spanish origin prices slightly lower than a week earlier, at €3.34/kg for extra virgin on Poolred. In Greece the first new-crop sale was at €5.95/kg for early-harvest oil from one cooperative, while old-crop oil changed hands at €3.20 to €3.75/kg. Tunisian regions are preparing mills and harvest dates, and the only national figure so far comes from the producers' chamber.

The next figures to watch are the ICQRF report on Italian stocks at 30 September, AICA's September data in mid-October with Spain's final 2025/26 carryover, the start of picking in Sidi Bouzid in mid-October, the UZZK estimate for Turkey, which usually comes in October or November, and the Spanish government's decision on Article 167a in the first half of November.

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