Α Comprehensive Analysis of Production, Consumption, and Price Trends in Key Mediterranean and Third Countries
Overview
The European olive oil market demonstrated marked recovery in spring 2025, driven by improved climatic conditions and strategic policy interventions. Spain and Greece led production rebounds, while Italy faced persistent challenges due to drought and disease. Third countries like Turkey and Tunisia further reshaped global supply dynamics with record outputs. This report, grounded in data from government and EU sources, provides a detailed assessment of production, pricing, and consumption trends across major producing regions.
Spain: Stabilized Production and Strategic Stock Management
Weather and Irrigation Conditions
Andalucía, Spain’s primary olive-growing region, received consistent rainfall in March and early April 2025, elevating reservoir capacities to 60%—a 40% monthly increase. The steady rain provides excellent irrigation during the crucial flowering phase and may continue to benefit crops throughout the summer. The European Commission confirmed soil moisture indices in Andalucía were 15% above the five-year average, mitigating drought risks for the 2025/26 season.
The current state of water reservoirs in Spain is showcased in detail in the following graph:
Production, Stock Dynamics and Outputs
Spain’s 2024/25 olive oil production reached 1,406,913 tons by March’s end, aligning with initial Spanish Ministry of Agriculture forecasts. March recorded a milling production of 13,146 tons, driven by sustained milling activity. Total stocks stood at 996,467 tons in March, with packers holding 21% (210,900 tons) and farmers retaining 78% (773,597 tons). By April, cooperative stocks declined to 865,176 tons, reflecting heightened domestic and export demand.
March maintained strong output levels, reaching 119,019 tons, pushing the 2025 monthly average to 115,055 tons. This elevated activity in both exports and domestic consumption has driven output levels close to those seen in 2022.
Price Trends and Market Sentiment
Producer prices in Jaén fell to €3.82/kg in March (-55% YoY) due to improved supply. April saw stabilization at €3.75–€3.90/kg, though premium EVOO remained scarce. Retail prices lagged, with supermarkets gradually phasing out high-cost 2024 stocks. The European Commission noted Spain’s export competitiveness, with bulk EVOO priced €0.50/kg below Turkish counterparts.
Greece: Recovery Amid Regional Disparities
Production and Stock Challenges
Greece’s 2024/25 production rebounded to 250,000 tons, a 43% recovery from 2023/24 lows. However, drought in Western Greece reduced yields by 33–36% in Achaia and Aetolia-Acarnania, with total losses exceeding 23,000 tons. By April, 60–70% of stocks remained unsold in Crete and Peloponnese mills, as producers resisted price cuts ahead of Easter.
Export and Domestic Price Pressures
Greek EVOO exports rose 8% in Q1 2025, driven by demand from Italy and Germany. Domestic consumption remained robust at 9.3 kg per capita, though retail prices stayed elevated at €10–€14/L due to delayed cost adjustments. Producer prices averaged €4.22/kg for standard EVOO, with premium batches at €5.50/kg. The Hellenic Statistical Authority highlighted a narrowing price gap with Spain, reflecting competitive pressures.
Italy: Structural Decline and Premium Pricing
Output Contraction
Italy’s 2024/25 production is forecast at 224,000–240,000 tons, a 27–32% decline from 2023/24, per ISMEA. Drought in Puglia (-41% output) and Xylella fastidiosa outbreaks offset gains in northern regions (+75%). The European Commission confirmed Italy’s reliance on imports, with 15,000–20,000 tons sourced from Spain and Tunisia in Q1.
Market Dynamics
Limited supply sustained Italy’s premium pricing, with EVOO averaging €9.25/kg in April, more than double Spanish and Greek levels. Retail prices exceeded €12/L, driven by tight stocks and institutional demand. The EU’s Short-Term Agricultural Outlook highlighted Italy’s vulnerability to climate shocks, with 2025/26 yields contingent on summer rainfall.
Third-Country Producers: Export Strategies Reshape Global Markets
Turkey’s Export Surge
Turkey’s 2024/25 olive oil production surged to 450,000 tons (+104% YoY), with exports targeting 200,000 tons valued at $1 billion. The lifting of bulk export restrictions in June 2024 enabled shipments of 50,000 tons to the EU and North America, undercutting Spanish prices by €0.50–€1.00/kg. The Turkish Ministry of Trade emphasized investments in premium and organic EVOO for North American markets.
Tunisia’s Production Recovery
Tunisia produced 340,000 tons of olive oil (+55% YoY), leveraging favorable weather and expanded groves. Exports to the EU under the duty-free quota reached 56,700 tons by April, priced at €3.85–€4.10/kg for conventional and organic EVOO. The Tunisian Ministry of Agriculture projects exports to generate $1.65 billion in 2025, bolstering fiscal stability.
EU and Global Market Dynamics
Production and Consumption Trends
The EU’s 2024/25 olive oil production is projected at 2.07 million tons (+29% YoY), with Spain and Greece offsetting Italy’s shortfall. Consumption rebounded by 7% to 1.22 million tons, though per capita intake remains below pre-2023 levels. Non-EU consumption grew 3.7% annually, driven by health trends in the U.S. and Asia.
Price Projections and Trade Policies
Spain and Greece: Prices stabilized at €3.75–€4.25/kg in April, with further declines limited by stock drawdowns.
Italy: Premiums persist due to structural supply constraints, with prices unlikely to drop below €8.50/kg in 2025.
Our View
The crop has surpassed 1.4 million tons, alleviating concerns about availability and stock levels, and showcasing the agricultural sector's resilience. Output has rebounded to over 115,000 tons, driven by increased consumption in domestic and international markets, reflecting a growing awareness of the crop's benefits.
Looking ahead, early signs indicate a positive outlook for the next crop cycle, with expectations for strong flowering and growth. However, ongoing U.S. tariffs introduce uncertainty that could affect pricing and market access. Producers may face challenges as these tariffs could influence future performance.
Despite typical agricultural trends suggesting a gradual price decline, producers are likely to hold back supply to maintain higher price levels and avoid significant market corrections. This strategy aims to provide stability, allowing producers to manage operations effectively.
Quality concerns persist, particularly with limited availability of premium Extra Virgin Olive Oil, while Greek olive oil prices are adjusting closer to Spanish levels, reflecting changing consumer preferences and market dynamics in the olive oil industry.
Conclusion
The Mediterranean olive oil market transitioned from scarcity-driven volatility to cautious stability in spring 2025. Spain and Greece’s production recoveries, coupled with Turkey and Tunisia’s export expansions, eased global supply tensions. Italy’s structural challenges underscore regional disparities, while EU-wide consumption growth signals market resilience. Climate risks during the flowering season and evolving trade policies remain critical watchpoints for 2025/26.
References
Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, 2024/25 Olive Oil Production Forecast
European Commission, Monthly EU Olive Oil Production Report (March–April 2025)
Hellenic Statistical Authority, Olive Oil Price and Production Data (April 2025)
Greek Ministry of Rural Development, 2024/25 Harvest Report
Turkish National Olive and Olive Oil Council, Export Policy Update (2025)
Tunisian Ministry of Agriculture, Olive Oil Production and Trade Data
Wikifarmer, Olive Oil Market Digest (April 2025)
European Commission, Short-Term Agricultural Outlook (April 2025)
Spanish Agency for Food Information and Control (AICA), Stock and Sales Report (April 2025)
ISMEA (Italy), 2024/25 Olive Oil Market Report
International Olive Council, Trade Policy Brief (April 2025)
