In the week starting 19 October 2026 a tonne of butter in the EU cost 1.19 times as much as a tonne of skimmed milk powder, the smallest ratio since the week of 14 April 2014, according to a Wikifarmer analysis of the weekly EU average prices the European Commission has published since January 2000. No week in the comparison of weekly prices since 2015 had a ratio this low, but the Commission's series starts fifteen years earlier, and from 2000 to 2014 the ratio stayed below 1.70, with a median of 1.35, and was at or below today's level in 110 weeks.
From 2000 to 2014 the ratio never reached 2
In the 783 weeks from January 2000 to December 2014 the highest ratio, recorded in the week of 12 September 2011, was just below 1.70, and the median was 1.35 (European Commission, Agri-food Data Portal). All 110 weeks with a ratio at or below 1.19 fall in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2012 and 2014, the last of them in the week of 14 April 2014. In 2007 skimmed milk powder sold at a higher price than butter for 20 weeks, from the week of 19 March to the week of 30 July, and in the week of 28 May 2007 the ratio fell to 0.83, the lowest in the whole series, with butter at €292.60 per 100 kg and skimmed milk powder at €352.20.
Since 2015 the ratio has been 2 or higher in 4 of every 10 weeks
In the 616 weeks from January 2015 to October 2026 the median ratio rose to 1.90, and the ratio was 2 or higher in 41.9% of weeks, a level no week reached from 2000 to 2014. The yearly average reached 2.92 in 2017 and 3.37 in 2018, with the highest weekly ratio of the series, 3.91, in the week of 21 May 2018, and it was 2.65 in 2024 and 2.81 in 2025. For the 42 weeks of 2026 up to 19 October the average is 1.54, between the median of 2000 to 2014 and the median since 2015.
Source: Wikifarmer analysis of weekly EU average prices published by the European Commission. The horizontal line marks a ratio of 2.
This year's fall comes mostly from a higher milk powder price
In the week of 5 January 2026 butter cost €426.92 per 100 kg and skimmed milk powder €207.35, a ratio of 2.06. By the week of 19 October the butter price had fallen 4.9%, to €406.00 per 100 kg, while the skimmed milk powder price had risen 64.6%, to €341.23, its highest since the week of 24 October 2022, so arithmetically most of the fall in the ratio from 2.06 to 1.19 comes from the higher milk powder price. Compared with the same week of 2025, when the ratio was 2.65, the butter price is 29.1% lower and the skimmed milk powder price 57.8% higher. In current euros, without adjusting for inflation, butter is just below its highest price before 2015, €421.80 in the week of 9 September 2013, and far below the series high of €787.94 in the week of 2 December 2024. The ratio itself is not affected by inflation, because it compares two prices from the same week.
The ratio matters to those who produce and buy dairy products
Butter and skimmed milk powder are made from the same milk, since the cream becomes butter and the skimmed milk that remains is dried into powder, so the ratio of the two prices shows how much more the market pays for milk fat than for protein and lactose. In many countries the price farmers receive for milk is calculated from its fat and protein content, dairy processors decide what to make partly on the prices of the two products, and the relationship also matters to trade, since in 2025 EU dairy exports grew on broadly stable volumes and higher prices, especially for cheese and butter.
In the six completed cases since 2000 when the ratio fell below 1.5 after at least 13 weeks above that level, it was higher 26 weeks later in four and 52 weeks later in three, while across all weeks of the series the ratio was higher 26 weeks later in 52.2% of cases and 52 weeks later in 57.5%. Six cases are too few to show whether the ratio usually rises after low levels. The data describe how prices moved without testing the causes, and they are not a forecast; the Commission's next weekly prices will show whether the ratio stays near 1.19.
The analysis uses the Commission's weekly EU average prices for butter and skimmed milk powder, in euros per 100 kg, from the week of 3 January 2000 to the week of 19 October 2026, 1,399 weeks with a price for both products. The ratio is the butter price divided by the skimmed milk powder price of the same week, and all changes are simple percentage changes in current prices. Over these 26 years the EU average covers a Union whose membership changed, and the Commission's file does not show whether older prices were recalculated for today's member states. The latest prices are revised by the Commission, and for the week of 12 October the first published prices gave a ratio of 1.19, while the prices revised on 30 October 2026 give 1.22. All numbers were recomputed independently from the original file.
Sources
- European Commission. (2026). Agri-food Data Portal, API guide and weekly dairy prices. Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development.
