How did the Global Olive Oil Market do during the 2024/2025 campaign?
As the final reserves of the 2024/2025 olive oil season have now practically been exhausted, this report looks back at how the global market performed over the whole production cycle. After several years of constrained supply, the 2024/2025 season marked a rebound with higher production volumes across key producing regions, which helped ease availability pressures and prices. Despite this, producers continued to face structural challenges, including adverse weather, rising input costs, and market volatility.
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Year’s-end Wikifarmer update
In 2025, Wikifarmer strengthened its presence in the edible oils market. During the year, more than 5,000 tons of olive oil and vegetable oils were traded through the platform, with sales reaching over 20 countries worldwide. This comes at a time when volatility in global commodity markets has prompted producers and buyers alike to seek more transparent and flexible trading channels.
Strong production recovery in the Mediterranean
After years of drought and constrained output, 2024/25 delivered a solid rebound in production:
- Spain: The world’s largest producer achieved record‑level production, with estimates ranging from 1.38-1.42 million tonnes, a dramatic increase from the previous year.
- Greece: Production stabilised, with estimates around 250,000 tonnes, though heat-related quality issues persisted.
- Italy: Below-average production, with estimates around 248,000-250,000 tonnes, due to drought, heat stress, and the olive fruit fly.
- Portugal: One of its best campaigns ever recorded, with production around 177,000-180,000 tonnes.
- Turkey: Recorded one of its highest production figures ever, around 475,000 tonnes, and lifted export restrictions.
- Tunisia: Continued its post-crisis growth and had a strong campaign, with production reaching about 340,000 tonnes, reinforcing its position in global trade.
This expanded supply helped ease the pressure that had built over consecutive years of tight stocks and sharply rising prices. Stocks began to recover toward their longer-term averages by late season.
Prices correct after historic highs
The dramatic surge in olive oil prices seen in 2023/24 gave way this season to a price correction:
- In Spain and Greece, producer prices for EVOO fell sharply compared to historic highs, reflecting the new crop volumes and easing market tension.
- In contrast, Italy maintained premium price levels, supported by limited domestic production and a greater focus on quality and protected designation products.
By mid‑season and into summer, price behaviour reflected tighter carry‑over stocks and cautious selling — especially for high‑quality EVOO, which remained scarcer.
Price normalisation, however, widened the gap between bulk Spanish EVOO and premium Italian EVOO, reflecting a more segmented market.
Monthly average EVOO mill prices — Spain, Greece & Italy:
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Changing market rhythms & regional patterns
The season’s progress revealed distinct regional dynamics:
- Spain emerged as the dominant source of bulk supply, though quality segmentation became more pronounced as summer heat pressured remaining stocks.
- Greece saw stable but selective pricing, with many producers reluctant to reduce offers as inventories tightened late in the season.
- Italy’s premium segment continued to trade at a significant premium to other origins as domestic output struggled against climatic and disease pressures.
- Portugal, Tunisia and Turkey played increasingly strategic roles in balancing global supply and demand, especially in export markets facing competitive pricing.
Consumption & trade
After two years of price-induced slowdown, global consumption began to recover. Global trade strengthened, supported by better supply availability and stabilising prices.
EU exports rebounded toward historical averages as prices eased, with Spain, Italy, Greece, and Portugal leading the way in shipments to international markets. Key destinations included the United States, Brazil, the UK, Canada, and East Asia.
The United States emerged as a leading consumer, with imports and e-commerce sales experiencing significant growth. The Asian market is slowly expanding, with olive oil still considered a premium product.
However, quality concerns persisted in parts of the market, with many lots barely meeting EVOO criteria—a factor that influenced buyer behaviour throughout the year.
Consumer trends:
- Health consciousness remains strong; EVOO continues to be highly prized.
- Premiumization: Single-origin, organic, and higher-priced oils gained attention.
- Private-label growth pressures branded products.
- Smaller purchases and blended oils are more common due to cost concerns.
Structural pressures
In the olive oil sector, several major challenges persist:
- Climate & weather: Extreme heat, drought, and lack of rainfall affected yields.
- Pests & disease: Due to warmer weather this year, pests like the olive fruit fly affected yields, especially in Italy and Greece.
- Rising costs: Labour, energy, and packaging costs pressured farms.
Investment in precision irrigation, drones, and drought-resistant varieties is increasing to adapt to challenges and enhance resilience.
Spain consolidates global leadership
Spain reinforced its role as the world’s top olive oil producer and exporter. Export revenues exceeded €6 billion, underpinned by scale, quality, and a growing organic sector. Government targets aim for 4 million tons by 2040, emphasising productivity, diversification, and farmer profitability.
Olive oil outputs experienced some fluctuations throughout the season, but overall performance remained strong:
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Looking ahead: Outlook for the 2025/2026 season
Looking ahead to the current 2025/2026 season, this is what early indications show:
- So far, the harvest is strong. Production may experience a modest decline in volume from the 2024/25 record, due to earlier heat stress and the cyclical "off-year" effect in key regions such as Turkey and North Africa.
- Producers emphasise the constant influence of weather and climate risks on final yields.
- Prices are likely to remain stable and even ease slightly if the 2025/26 harvest is favourable and weather cooperates, but this depends on the country.
- Producers in Spain report sufficient stocks but are taking a cautious approach to new buying, anticipating downward price shifts as major volumes enter the market.
- Italian oil is likely to maintain its premium, albeit slightly decreasing, as domestic supply remains tight.
- Global consumption growth is expected, particularly outside EU markets, driven by health trends and Mediterranean diet appeal.
As the industry shifts its focus toward 2025/26, the lessons of this season — from weather volatility to value-chain adaptation — will shape strategies from the grove to the global marketplace.
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