The global olive oil market is again navigating turbulent waters, this time due to the recent announcement of new U.S. tariffs on European olive oil. On April 9th, a 20% tariff was set to be imposed on olive oil imports from the European Union along with other products, a move that sent ripples through the supply chain. However, in a last-minute decision, President Trump paused the implementation for 90 days, leaving the sector in limbo.
This development is not without precedent. In recent years, the global olive oil market has proven resilient, enduring historic price hikes caused by short European harvests. But while the sector has weathered many storms, the looming uncertainty around tariff structures could have significant implications for trade volumes and strategic decisions at the producer, exporter, and importer levels. Even with tariffs not imposed yet, the market is concerned about the matter, making stakeholders create cautious strategies for moving in the short term and the long term.
Antonio Rubiales, the International Director of Acesur, a prominent Spanish company in the olive oil industry with a strong presence in U.S. imports, has shared valuable insights into the sector's challenges and opportunities. Furthermore, Miguel Colmenero, the Commercial Director at Wikifarmer, and Francesco Di Monaco, the Head of Bulks at Wikifarmer, share their insights on the olive oil industry, focusing on the impact of US tariffs.
Context and Sector Impact
Spain, which accounts for about half of the global olive oil production, is significantly vulnerable to changes in U.S. trade regulations. Rubiales discusses the recent developments and their immediate repercussions:
"Spain is responsible for nearly 50% of the world's olive oil supply, while the United States stands as the largest importer of olive oil from the European Union. Initially, olive oil exports from the EU were subjected to a 20% tariff, inadvertently favoring competitors like Turkey, Argentina, Chile, Peru, Australia, and Morocco, who only had to deal with a 10% tariff. This situation hinted at a possible shift in U.S. consumer preferences away from Spanish and Italian olive oils towards those from other nations. Nevertheless, with the recent adjustment to a uniform 10% tariff across all origins, the competitive landscape remains unchanged.”
He further notes that the scenario could become increasingly unpredictable once the current pause period concludes:
“Once the 90-day ‘grace’ period is over and tariffs return to their original rates, the expected shift in consumption could be exacerbated by Tunisia's disadvantageous position as its tariff increases to 28%. Tunisia, as the third-largest supplier to the U.S., might respond by aggressively targeting other markets to compensate for lost volume. This could intensify competition and pressure profit margins globally.”
Market Uncertainty and Irrational Behavior
The unpredictability of U.S. policy has introduced a new layer of uncertainty to the sector. According to Francesco Di Monaco, this brings multiple risks:
“The moves of the American President appear unpredictable and create a climate in which those with privileged information may benefit.
After a long wait for the tariffs to take effect, an immediate 90-day suspension was announced, placing all major exporting/producing countries, such as Turkey and Tunisia, on the same level. What will happen after this extended suspension remains unclear, but these actions have undoubtedly thrown the sector into a state of uncertainty.
In the meantime, consumption is expected to remain stable in the short term. However, the current climate of uncertainty may trigger irrational purchasing behavior, such as stockpiling, early orders, or rushed imports, which could lead to distortions in the olive oil market across the Mediterranean basin.”
Such unpredictability not only affects trade flows but also risks creating volatility in prices and supply chains, as buyers and importers act preemptively to hedge against future changes.
Adapting to the New Tariff Landscape
Rubiales stresses the importance of tariff parity for maintaining fair competition:
“From a sectoral perspective, maintaining equal tariffs for all olive oil origins will be crucial. Equal tariffs would ensure competitive conditions and allow companies to adjust their pricing strategies accordingly. With current market prices ranging between €3.80-4.00/kg, significantly lower than last year's €7.50-8.00/kg, the 10% tariff is unlikely to harm demand or consumption. Even with this additional cost, Spanish olive oil remains in a more advantageous position compared to last year.”
The Commercial Perspective: Wikifarmer's View
Miguel Colmenero offers additional insight into the commercial realities behind the numbers:
"Although tariffs are never positive for international trade, the olive oil market has overcome 2 years of prices over 9 EUR/kg due to the limited crops in Europe. Thus, the 20% tariffs over a cost of 3.8 EUR/Kg should not create a huge barrier for US consumers. This is more relevant for the ‘atmosphere’ on the farming side at origin, where the packers will use it to create additional pressure on the production side, arguing for a potential market reduction. This year's real price driver will come from the high-quality EVOO, which seems to be shorter than expected. This could create a tense situation by the end of the season.”
Colmenero’s comments highlight that, while tariffs are a concern, the market’s recent experience with much higher prices suggests that consumers may be less sensitive to the current increases. He also points out that producers may feel real pressure, especially as competition for high-quality extra virgin olive oil intensifies.
Company Strategies and Outlook
For companies like Acesur, adapting to the new scenario involves logistical flexibility and strategic sourcing. Rubiales explains:
“The U.S. is ACESUR's primary export market for olive oil, and in the short term, it is challenging to pass on the tariff costs directly to U.S. consumers. Additionally, there is uncertainty about what will happen after the 90-day grace period. ACESUR and other companies with bottling facilities in the U.S. have an advantage: they can source olive oils from different origins based on tariff structures. Moreover, importing bulk olive oil and generating added value through bottling within the U.S. reduces import costs since ‘ad valorem’ tariffs are applied to a lower value compared to exporting bottled products directly from Spain.”
Conclusion
The agreement among key industry figures is unmistakable: although U.S. tariffs bring about additional challenges, the olive oil industry’s strength and resilience, influenced by recent periods of elevated prices and supply issues, equip it to navigate the current shifts. According to Colmenero, the true challenge may arise from the changing availability of high-quality extra virgin olive oil, potentially creating market pressures as the season advances.
Further Reading
Tariff Tensions & Liquid Gold: The Olive Oil Trade Under Fire
Europe's Food Security in the Face of US-EU Trade Tensions: Challenges and Opportunities
Tariffs Explained: A Consumer Breakdown of Rising Food Prices in 2025
