On April 9, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day suspension of most new tariffs under his "reciprocal" trade policy, following appeals from over 75 countries. However, he dramatically increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, citing Beijing's lack of respect and retaliation at equivalent rates. President Trump has made clear through his latest announcements that the tariffs will be implemented in the near future. What will be the limits or exceptions is left to be seen, as things are still very volatile.
In a roller-coaster of decision announcements of go-no-go with the tariffs and countermeasures planning, President Trump has highlighted in the clearest way that a complete trade reshape is just an announcement away, exposing all pathologies and weaknesses of the global food trade.
The recent escalation of trade tensions between the United States and the European Union has created significant uncertainty for Europe's agrifood sector, raising concerns about its food security and resilience. European farmers and food producers are questioning the implications for their businesses and the continent's food security.
Current State of EU-US Trade Tensions – Recent History
The latest round of trade hostilities began when the Trump administration announced new tariffs on imported products, claiming they would greatly benefit American farmers. In his address to Congress, Trump stated that "no agricultural product from outside the US will be able to compete with locally produced goods" and announced that tariffs on agricultural imports would take effect on April 2, 2025, as reported by Euronews. The U.S. subsequently imposed tariffs of up to 25% on imports of steel, aluminum, and certain products containing these materials from the EU on March 12, 2025, according to an announcement of the European Commission, followed by a sweeping 10% across-the-board tariff on all imports and specific reciprocal duties for trade partners including the EU, the AgTechNavigator mentions.
In response, the EU proposed a "zero-for-zero" tariff deal on industrial goods on April 7, 2025, in a last-minute bid to prevent further escalation, von der Leyen mentioned in her announcement. However, this diplomatic effort appears to have fallen short, as the EU officially imposed retaliatory tariffs on April 9, 2025, targeting American products, including almonds, orange juice, poultry, and luxury yachts, according to the article of NPR. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen indicated that the offer for zero tariffs on industrial goods remains "on the table," but the EU is prepared to defend its interests.
The recent pause seems to leave some room for discussion and negotiations between the EU and the USA. However, it is important that the EU starts fortifying its position in the global food trade, exploring new alternatives and partners, and at the same time taking measures to secure its internal food security.
Europe's Food Security and Self-Sufficiency
Current Production Capacity
While the EU boasts a positive agricultural trade balance overall, the bloc's food security situation is more complex than it might initially appear. The European Union is a key global producer of agricultural commodities,
The EU maintains a substantial degree of self-sufficiency in food production, particularly in staples such as cereals, dairy, and meat. According to the European Commission's agricultural outlook for 2024-2035, the EU is projected to remain a net exporter of agrifood products, contributing positively to global food security. Notable trends include a stabilization of cereal production and an increase in poultry and pulses production, reflecting adaptability to changing climatic and market conditions. However, its food system remains dependent on certain critical inputs, some of which come from a limited number of third-country suppliers, based on a research report of the EU Parliament.
The EU's new Vision for Agriculture and Food, published on February 19, 2025, acknowledges these vulnerabilities and emphasizes "the strategic importance of food security and sovereignty" while aiming for "an agrifood system that is attractive, competitive, future-oriented, and fair" for current and future generations.
Critical dependencies of the EU on USA products—the effects and problems that will arise if the EU imposes countermeasures on the U.S.
In case the EU applies countermeasures, it is important to know which products and services could also see a rise in prices for the European farmers currently importing them from the States.
One of the most significant vulnerabilities in Europe's food system is its dependency on imported high-quality protein. In an official response dated April 2, 2025, EU Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen acknowledged that the Commission is developing "a comprehensive plan to address the EU's heavy reliance on imported high-quality protein from a limited number of origins." This initiative aims to foster domestic production to improve self-sufficiency while also diversifying import sources to enhance food security.
The plan focuses on two main approaches: reducing dependency on imported plant-based protein and diversifying import sources. This dependency is particularly critical for animal feed, with the EU currently importing up to six million tonnes of soybeans from the U.S. alone, accounting for 44% of all soybean imports to the EU, valued at approximately 3 billion euros, based on data shared by the European Feed Manufacturers' Federation. At the same time, Rabobank highlights the dependency of the Union on imported machinery and inputs from the U.S. Tariffs on these goods could increase production costs and hinder efficiency.
The EU Parliament's report mentions that other key dependencies include fertilizers. The EU's reliance on imports has been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine and disruptions in logistics, particularly maritime transportation. These disruptions have led to higher price volatility, amplifying the negative implications of import dependency for critical agricultural inputs.
While the EU is a major producer of agricultural machinery, European farmers still rely on American equipment for certain applications. U.S. tariffs could disrupt supply chains and increase costs for European farmers dependent on American machinery or parts.
While necessary to protect European interests, EU countermeasures could further complicate the situation by making U.S. equipment even more expensive for European farmers. This creates a challenging environment for agricultural modernization and efficiency improvements.
Most vulnerable products, sectors, and EU countries that will be affected if U.S. tariffs on the EU are applied
If the U.S. tariffs are implemented, certain European agricultural sectors will face disproportionate impacts. According to industry analyses, the EU exports more than €30 billion worth of food and agricultural products to the U.S. each year, primarily wine, cheese, chocolate, olive oil, and spirits. These high-value products form the backbone of many regional economies across Europe.
EU Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen has specifically highlighted European wines, spirits, and dairy products as "particularly strategic" sectors that must be protected. The European Federation of Food, Agriculture, and Tourism Trade Unions (EFFAT) has warned that the proposed 20% tariffs on European food products will have "devastating consequences for workers, businesses, and food security on both sides of the Atlantic."
Most Affected EU Countries
Spain, France, Italy, and Greece, known for their wine, cheese, and olive oil production, are likely to bear the brunt of U.S. tariffs on EU agricultural exports. These countries have strong traditional export relationships with the U.S. market and rely heavily on American consumers for premium food products.
Italy, for instance, has a significant agrifood export relationship with the U.S., with exports valued at €53.3 billion as of October 2024. The imposition of U.S. tariffs could severely impact Italian businesses, particularly in the food and beverage sector, potentially resulting in losses of up to €100 billion, according to Italianfoodnet. You can find a more detailed analysis of the olive oil trade in our other articles.
Similarly, based on the data of the Greek Association of Exporters - SEVE, the top exports of Greece to the USA are olives and olive oil, with 269 million euros in total (olives account for 201.6 million euros and olive oil 67.97 million euros), followed by feta cheese with 61.8 million euros, peaches with almost 47 million euros and kiwifruit at 31 million euros. All these products are currently affected by the new tariffs. However, the Greek government is determined to make an agreement with President Trump in order to exclude feta cheese and olive oil (at least) from the new tariffs.
Finally, Spain seems to receive the biggest hit, with exports from the country to USA animal products, vegetable fats, and oils reaching 1.3 billion, while exports of vegetables, fruits, nut preparations, beverages, spirits and vinegar were valued at 872.22 million in 2024, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. The olive oil is expected to be the product that will receive the biggest hit since more than 166.859 tons of virgin and extra virgin olive oil is currently exported from Spain to the U.S., exceeding €6 billion in 2023/24, based on the Spanish ministry.
Beyond agricultural products, major EU agricultural machinery producers will also face challenges. Based on EU Commission's report, Germany, Italy, and France together represent 59% of European turnover in the farm machinery sector, 40% of manufacturing companies, and 50% of the sector's workforce. With US farmers potentially switching to domestic alternatives, these countries' machinery exports could see significant declines.
According to Rabobank's research, agricultural machinery manufacturers are among the industry's most vulnerable to these tariffs, as U.S. farmers, already facing tight profit margins, may opt for domestic alternatives instead of purchasing EU equipment. This could have cascading effects on European manufacturing centers and rural employment.
Alternatives, new markets and trade opportunities - How the EU can protect its income and food security
Exploring Alternative Export Destinations
As US-EU trade tensions continue, European producers should consider diversifying their export markets to reduce dependency on American consumers. The EU-Mercosur trade deal, while controversial, could provide alternative markets for European agricultural products, as suggested by EU Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen: "If the United States were to target such products [wines, spirits, and dairy], [thanks to an EU-Mercosur deal] we would have alternative ways to sell our products, ensuring stability [for our farmers]", Euronews report.
Asian markets, particularly China and Southeast Asia represent significant growth opportunities for European premium food products. A Joint Research Centre study from February 2024 projects that upcoming free trade agreements with partners such as Mercosur, New Zealand, and India could increase EU agrifood exports by up to 38% and imports by up to 14.5% by 2032. Additionally, emerging markets in Africa and the Middle East could become important destinations for European agricultural exports, especially as incomes rise and preferences shift toward high-quality food products.
Strengthening Intra-EU Trade and Strategies for Enhancing European Food Security
Enhancing trade within the EU itself could help buffer against external trade disruptions. The European Commission's emphasis on "fair trade and reciprocity" in its Vision for Agriculture and Food includes commitments to "deepen reciprocity in trade agreements, ensure that imported products meet the same high EU production standards and also strengthen controls on imports," which could reinforce fair competition for European producers within the common market.
Extending country-of-origin labeling for agricultural products and intensifying promotion policies will empower European consumers to make informed choices while supporting EU farmers. This could increase demand for locally produced goods and reduce dependency on imports from outside the EU.
Diversifying Protein Sources
The EU's longstanding dependency on imported protein, particularly for animal feed, represents one of its most significant food security vulnerabilities. To address this, the Commission is developing a comprehensive protein plan with two main objectives: fostering domestic production and diversifying import sources.
Based on the New Land Dividend report, written by the Green Alliance, alternative proteins (crops such as soybeans, other oilseeds, and pulses) offer particularly promising opportunities. A recent report found that shifting towards plant-based, cultivated, and fermentation-made food could significantly boost Europe's food self-sufficiency and provide opportunities for farmers to benefit from a transition to more extensive practices like organic agriculture. This shift could enable 21% of farmland across ten European countries to be used for regenerative agriculture, nature restoration, and increased domestic food production.
The analysis reveals that agricultural land use could change based on modest or ambitious increases in the consumption of these foods by 2050, potentially reducing the land these countries collectively require for imports by up to 75%, equivalent to nearly 60 million hectares – an area bigger than Spain.
Developing European Alternatives
To reduce dependency on U.S. equipment, the EU could invest in developing its own agricultural machinery sector. Germany, Italy, and France already have significant capacity in this area, with these three countries representing 59% of the European turnover in agricultural machinery, according to EuroDev’s analysis.
Supporting research and development in agricultural technology, as well as fostering collaboration between European manufacturers, could help create competitive alternatives to American equipment. This would not only reduce dependency but also create jobs and economic opportunities within the EU.
Alternatives for Non-Growable Products
Diversifying import sources is crucial for products unsuitable for European cultivation. Engaging with other major producers, such as Brazil and Ukraine for corn, can help offset potential shortfalls from U.S. imports. However, it's important to note that alternative sources may come with higher costs; for instance, Brazilian and Ukrainian corn is currently priced at $6–$7 per ton higher than U.S. corn, based on a recent article by Reuters. Additionally, exploring substitutes and promoting dietary shifts towards locally available products can reduce reliance on imported goods.
Recommendations for Farmers and Stakeholders - Short-Term Adaptation Strategies - Summarize
- Diversify Product Offerings: Farmers and food producers should consider diversifying their product range to reduce dependency on items targeted by U.S. tariffs.
- Explore New Markets: Look beyond traditional export destinations to find new opportunities in emerging markets or within the EU itself.
- Optimize Input Use: Implement precision farming techniques to reduce dependency on imported inputs like fertilizers and improve overall efficiency.
- Form Cooperatives: Join or form cooperatives to enhance bargaining power, share resources, and reduce costs in a challenging trade environment.
Long-Term Resilience Building
- Invest in Sustainable Practices: Adopt regenerative agriculture and organic farming methods that reduce dependency on external inputs and enhance long-term soil health.
- Embrace Technology: Incorporate digital agriculture tools, automation, and data analytics to improve productivity and reduce costs.
- Develop Alternative Protein Production: Consider transitioning to or incorporating plant-based protein production, which requires less land and fewer inputs than animal agriculture.
- Engage in Policy Advocacy: Work with industry associations to advocate for supportive policies that protect European farmers' interests in trade negotiations and domestic regulations.
Conclusion
The current trade tensions between the U.S. and EU present significant challenges for Europe's agrifood sector, but they also create opportunities for innovation and transformation. By diversifying protein sources, expanding organic agriculture, leveraging new technologies, exploring alternative markets, and developing European alternatives to U.S. equipment, the EU can enhance its food security and reduce external dependencies.
While certain countries and sectors will face greater challenges than others, collective action at the EU level can help mitigate these impacts and create a more resilient food system. The EU's Vision for Agriculture and Food provides a framework for this transformation, emphasizing competitiveness, sustainability, and fairness across the agrifood value chain.
For individual farmers and stakeholders, a combination of short-term adaptation strategies and long-term resilience building will be essential for navigating the uncertain trade environment. By taking proactive steps now, Europe's agrifood sector can emerge stronger and more self-sufficient from the current challenges, ensuring food security for generations to come.
Refences
Memo on EU countermeasures on U.S. tariffs
Europe imposes retaliatory tariffs on the U.S.: NPR
Research for the AGRI Committee: The dependency of the EU’s food system on inputs and their sources
Vision for Agriculture and Food - European Commission
A new land dividend: the opportunity of alternative proteins in Europe »
EU tariffs to curb U.S. corn imports, soy at lower risk for now | Reuters
Made in America: Agricultural Machinery During The Crisis in Europe
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52025DC0075
Further reading
Trump’s Tariffs on Food Trade: How Farmers, Traders & Consumers Will Be Affected
Tariffs Explained: A Consumer Breakdown of Rising Food Prices in 2025
