US winter wheat falls to its smallest crop since 1965 as corn and soybean supplies weigh on prices

The USDA put the 2026/27 US winter wheat crop at 1.029 billion bushels in its June 11 Crop Production report, the smallest winter wheat harvest since 1965. The number is down from 1.048 billion estimated in May and falls well below last year's winter crop of 1.402 billion bushels, a drop of about 27%. A drought across the southern Plains thinned stands through the spring and is forcing growers to walk away from a large share of their acres.

Drought guts the hard red winter crop

Hard red winter wheat, the dominant US class and the variety grown across western Kansas, eastern Colorado, Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, came in at 497 million bushels for 2026. That is down from 515 million in May, far below the 804 million harvested in 2025, and the lowest level for the class since 1957.

Close to 36% of planted winter wheat will go unharvested this season, by the USDA's estimate. The latest Crop Progress report rated 46% of the crop poor or very poor, the worst reading since 2006. Planted area of 32.41 million acres was the lowest outside 2019 and 2020 in more than a century, and harvested area is set to be among the smallest on record. The winter crop's average yields are projected at 47.6 bushels per acre, down from 54.9 a year earlier.

US all-wheat production for 2026/27 is forecast at 1.543 billion bushels in the June WASDE, the lowest since 1972/73 once the smaller durum and spring crops are counted. Ending stocks dropped to 744 million bushels, 20% below the previous year, and the USDA cut the season-average farm price by 50 cents to 6.00 dollars per bushel.

Wheat prices firmed but global supplies stay comfortable

Most-active hard red winter futures touched 7.50 dollars per bushel in mid-May, the highest intraday level since September 2023, and firmed again after each of the spring crop reports.

World wheat ending stocks for 2026/27 hold at 275 million tonnes in the June WASDE, down only 20 million from a year earlier, because large Black Sea crops are covering the gap the United States left. Russian production is forecast at 88 million tonnes, close to its record, with Ukraine at 23.5 million and Turkey at a record 22.5 million. Smaller Southern Hemisphere harvests add some risk later in the year, with Australia down about 22% to 28 million tonnes and Argentina down about 25% to 21 million. Supplies are heavy enough that the US shortfall has produced no broad price spike, and DTN analyst Rhett Montgomery said after the report that the numbers still show little sign of a genuine supply pinch.

Corn stocks build as soybean exports hit a 13-year low

US corn ending stocks for 2025/26 climbed to 2.145 billion bushels in the June WASDE, the largest carryout in seven years, after a small export upgrade was offset by weaker ethanol demand. New-crop production for 2026/27 stands at 15.995 billion bushels, down about 6% from last year on smaller area and a trend yield of 183 bushels per acre. Corn futures slid to fresh contract lows in the days around the report.

US soybean exports for 2025/26 fell for a second straight month, dropping 20 million bushels to 1.51 billion, the lowest in 13 years. The USDA tied the decline to tariff measures that curtailed shipments to China, the largest market for US soybeans, which now hold a record-low 23% share of global soybean trade. New-crop 2026/27 ending stocks held steady at 310 million bushels.

On June 30 the USDA publishes its Acreage report with updated planted-area figures for corn and soybeans, the next major catalyst for prices. The winter wheat harvest is already moving north through Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, and the yields coming out of the hardest-hit western counties will decide how much of the projected crop reaches the bin.