Overview
The olive oil market reaches an inflection point as early harvest activities commence across the Mediterranean. Following a remarkable output rebound from the drought-affected previous season, many mills have begun processing the first premium oils of the 2025/26 crop year. This period marks the continuation of price stabilization after months of corrections and the first tangible evidence of supply prospects for the upcoming season. As the industry moves from depleted inventories toward fresh output, market participants seek signals of a more balanced supply-demand equilibrium ahead.
Stay up to date with our Weekly Olive Oil Market Insights
Market Updates by Country
Spain
This week, Spain's olive oil market demonstrates price stability as the new harvest season commences. Extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) averages €4.08 per kilogram based on 1,052 tons traded, representing the largest volume segment at 54.8% of total transactions. Virgin olive oil (VOO) trades at €3.65 per kilogram with 175 tons in volume, while lampante grade commands €3.34 per kilogram with 692 tons traded. The total market activity reached 1,919 tons.
This pricing structure emerges during the critical early harvest period, when mills are processing the first olives of the 2025/26 season. The €0.43 premium between EVOO and VOO reflects the focus on quality differentiation as new oils enter output. The €0.31 difference between virgin and lampante indicates sustained industrial demand alongside premium market activity.
Italy
Italy faces mixed early harvest conditions, with northern and central regions showing better prospects than southern areas. This reflects the impact of unusual weather patterns, including abundant autumn rainfall after hot, dry summers, affecting oil. However, oil quality remains exceptional, with clean profiles. Prices maintain their global premium position at €9.20 per kilogram for EVOO, reflecting supply constraints and the country's established position in luxury segments.
Italian imports from Spain and Greece continue at elevated levels to supplement domestic output shortfalls. The country's early harvest prospects remain constrained by ongoing disease effects in southern regions and natural alternating bearing cycles.
Greece
Greek olive oil markets maintain strong regional differentiation as early harvest begins, with Crete commanding premium prices of €4.30-5.00 for EVOO, €3.60-4.10 for VOO, and €2.75-3.20 for lampante. This positions Cretan oils significantly above Spanish new crop benchmarks, reflecting quality reputation and strategic inventory management as millers balance existing stock clearance with new harvest preparation.
The Peloponnese shows EVOO at €4.90 per kilogram. Greek growers demonstrate cautious optimism about the 2025/26 season, with more flowering nodes than the previous season. However, the summer heatwave across Europe has created uncertainty about final fruit development and oil accumulation.
Tunisia
Tunisia demonstrates the challenges of transitioning between crop seasons, with remaining 2024/25 stocks showing quality risks due to summer heat exposure. This has pushed some buyers toward European suppliers for immediate needs while anticipating the new Tunisian harvest. The country's 2025/26 output is expected to be slightly lower than the last, reflecting the natural alternating bearing cycle after the strong 2024/25 harvest. Export infrastructure remains focused on bulk shipments, limiting premium market participation despite output capabilities.
Turkey
Turkey transitions from its record 2024/25 output toward a more moderate 2025/26 forecast. This represents substantial export availability. Structural economic challenges persist with high inflation and interest rates, while the weakness of the Turkish currency continues to impact harvesting and processing costs. Despite these challenges, Turkish exports to new markets show strong growth.
Portugal
The Portuguese olive oil market shows stability as the country approaches its harvest season. Estimates for the upcoming campaign are optimistic, potentially anticipating its second-highest output on record. Winter rainfall replenishment of aquifers provides a strong foundation for traditional steep-slope groves and modern super-high-density plantations. However, millers remain cautious about potential quality impacts if excessive rain occurs during the critical harvest period.
Comparative Price Analysis
Extra Virgin Olive Oil
.jpg)
Mill-gate prices show modest upward trends in Greece and Italy alongside Spanish stability. Greek early-harvest EVOO opened the season at €4.90 per kilogram, reflecting demand for fresh crop volumes. Italian prices rose from €9.00 to €9.20, underscoring continued strength in premium domestic oils despite the seasonal transition. Meanwhile, Spain's price moved up from €4.00 to €4.08 per kilogram, signaling confidence in the early new-crop output and reinforcing Spain's role as the market price anchor. These figures illustrate a cautious market ramp-up: premium origins leverage quality-driven gains, while benchmark Spanish oils maintain stable pricing as Mediterranean harvests commence.
Virgin Olive Oil
.jpg)
Spanish VOO mill-gate prices increased slightly as early harvest activities ramped up, from €3.55 to €3.65 per kilogram, reflecting renewed demand for fresh new-crop volumes before Mediterranean harvests fully commence. This slight uptick shows growers' confidence in the early-harvest quality and buyers' willingness to pay a small premium for freshly pressed virgin oils as the market shifts from old-season stocks to new output. Greek and Italian VOO remain unquoted, as Spain continues to set the pace for VOO pricing during this transition period.
Lampante
.jpg)
Spain's lampante mill-gate prices slightly increased as the market transitioned to new-season output. Prices rose from €3.23 to €3.34 per kilogram, indicating steady demand for bulk industrial oils ahead of the main harvest. This gradual increase reflects millers' willingness to clear lower-grade stocks at firm levels and buyers' need to secure industrial volumes as they await the fuller supply of the 2025/26 crop. Greek and Italian lampante remain unquoted, as Spain sets the baseline pricing during this pre-harvest window.
Market Sentiment & Buyer Behaviour
- Early harvest dynamics are intensifying buyer selectivity. Purchasers prioritize premium extra virgin grades from the new crop while showing reduced interest in aging inventories.
- Italian buyers maintain active sourcing strategies from Spain and Greece to cover domestic output shortfalls, creating additional demand pressure for quality oils. Despite increased volumes, this has contributed to sustained premium pricing for top-grade Spanish oils.
- Market participants are cautiously optimistic as early harvest activities proceed across the Mediterranean. Buyers and sellers closely monitor early output indicators for guidance on the upcoming season's supply.
- End-of-season inventory clearance creates opportunities for strategic buyers willing to commit to volume purchases.
- New crop early harvest oils command attention from quality-focused buyers seeking fresh output with optimal characteristics.
Forecast: Looking Ahead
Early harvest indicators suggest cautious optimism for the 2025/26 season, though regional variations create mixed signals across the Mediterranean. Climate risks remain elevated with recent European heatwaves and drought concerns in key Greek regions.
Spanish flowering and fruit development conditions through summer appeared favourable, supporting expectations for continued strong output. Italy's output constraints are expected to persist due to ongoing structural challenges in southern regions. Tunisia and Turkey face natural output moderation cycles after record 2024/25 harvests.
Price trajectories favour continued stabilization. Premium oil pricing shows greater resilience, with quality differentials likely to persist as buyers focus on grade specifications. Consumer demand recovery accelerates as prices normalize.
Conclusion
The early harvest of the 2025/26 season has begun under largely favourable conditions, marking a transition from volatility to stabilized supply dynamics. Regional weather risks and structural constraints may temper yields. Premium oils remain in high demand, supporting sustained price resilience, even as bulk markets adjust. Overall, the market enters September with cautious optimism, balanced by watchfulness of harvest outcomes and evolving buyer preferences.
Disclaimer: The information provided on this website, including market prices, insights, and projections, is for general informational purposes only. While we strive to ensure accuracy and timeliness, we make no guarantees regarding the information's completeness, reliability, or suitability. Users are solely responsible for independently verifying the data and assessing its relevance to their specific circumstances before making any decisions. Wikifarmer and its operators shall not be held liable for any losses, damages, or consequences arising from using the information provided herein.
Buy Olive Oil in Bulk - Olive Oil Bulk Purchase
