Olive Oil Monthly Report: August 2025

Monthly Bulk Olive Oil Market Report

The Spanish olive oil market entered July 2025 with record-breaking output and tight stock management, amid a typically dry summer with declining reservoir levels and minimal rainfall. Increased demand and renewed global interest, especially from Italian buyers, have sparked a dramatic price rise across all olive oil qualities.

As the height of summer turns to late-season harvest activity, Spain's olive oil sector is finishing the 2024/2025 campaign on a strong note with another round of record-level outputs, ongoing supply constraints, and persistent upward price pressure fueled by weather-related uncertainty. Stakeholders are now carefully weighing production figures, commercial trends, and climate risks to shape their strategies for the coming months.

This report analyzes the latest July AICA figures to show how the market balances demand, stocks, and quality concerns as high temperatures affect current conditions and the prospects for the next crop. It explores key developments in Spain, the center of the global olive oil industry, providing insights on irrigation, output totals, changing buying patterns, and price forecasts, with expert analysis from Wikifarmer.

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Spanish Market Developments

Weather Conditions

August was an exceptionally dry month, with no meaningful rainfall to replenish reservoirs already depleted by irrigation quotas, particularly in southern Spain. Reservoirs (embalses) have fallen below their seasonal norms, reinforcing producer arguments about rising production costs. Although growers entered August with reservoir levels above 50 percent capacity, prolonged heat has stressed water reserves and heightened concerns about quality ahead of the new harvest.

This combination of drought conditions and peak annual outputs continues to drive the usual summer price surge, as farmers emphasize higher costs due to scarce water resources.

Bulk Olive Oil Outputs

The 2024/25 campaign has concluded its main harvesting phase, though commercial shipments continue. July's harvest figure stood at 290, with total domestic and export output at 131,843 tons—setting a record for 2025 and surpassing even the most optimistic forecasts. Annual averages show recovery: monthly output in 2025 hit 118,810 tons, compared to 79,187 tons in 2024, and even lower, 68,627 tons in 2023. Only 2022 saw a higher figure, at 121,790 tons.

As of July 31st, production for the new crop totaled 1,415,383 tons, with stocks at 513,413 tons—comprised of 187,525 tons held by packers and 325,983 tons by farmers. Packers continue to operate on a "just-in-time" basis, purchasing to meet immediate needs rather than entering long-term contracts. This removes downward pressure on prices and keeps inventory profiles static.

Monthly bulk olive oil outputs, Spain (in tons).jpg

Our view

July's output surge, combined with limited competition due to high stock concentration among few suppliers, has accelerated price increases. Producers have defended these price moves by citing large volumes and ongoing dry conditions.

Extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) prices have recovered to above €4.00/kg, with top-quality lots reaching €4.50/kg. Lampants and refined oils now trade above €3.50/kg for the first time in months. The shortage of premium EVOO continues to create market tension, limiting price declines as the next harvest approaches, particularly with most stocks controlled by a handful of suppliers.

Rising demand from Italian buyers is influencing pricing in both Greece and Spain. In the Peloponnese region, Greek EVOO has reached €4.50/kg, with top-quality oils commanding over €5.00/kg, while Cretan producers are following suit with assertive offers to liquidate inventories at peak prices. With no fresh rainfall, these elevated prices are expected to hold until supplies from the new crop become available.

Price Movement Forecast

Looking ahead to September, several dynamics suggest continued price resistance, especially for higher-quality oils. The new crop should introduce more supply into the market, but until significant rainfall arrives or the harvest reaches volume, prices—particularly for EVOO—are likely to remain high.

EVOO is expected to continue trading in the €4.20–€4.40/kg range in Spain and select Greek lots will likely climb toward €4.70/kg. Standard EVOO may see mild downward adjustments near €3.70–€3.85/kg as new crop prospects emerge, although drought-driven quality concerns should keep declines limited. Lampante is likely to remain stable around €2.90–€3.10/kg and €3.50/kg respectively. Concentration of remaining stocks among few suppliers will continue to hinder competition.

Persistent demand for low-pesticide, MOSH/MOAH-compliant “Gold Standard” oils will likely maintain their premium status, and prices will remain high. The scarcity of these compliant oils will continue to draw buyer attention and support their willingness to pay more.

Export momentum is expected to pick up after summer, with ongoing strong demand from Italy and other European countries helping to keep prices steady.

Conclusion

July 2025 saw record Spanish bulk olive oil output and high summer prices, fueled by dry weather conditions and strong export demand led by Italy. With stocks held tightly, few long-term contracts, and premium EVOO maintaining strong prices, the market continues to face upward pressure.

As the campaign ends on a high note, ongoing drought and low reservoir levels create uncertainty for the 2025/26 harvest. Without significant rainfall or a large new crop, September will likely bring tense conditions, high prices, and keen interest in top-quality oils. Quality and smart purchasing will shape market trends in this environment as attention turns to the new harvest.

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