European Olive Oil Market Updates - w27/2025
Pricing movements
The latest week-over-week price movements reveal some clear trends across the main olive oil-producing countries. Spain is experiencing the most notable increases, particularly in lampante oil, which jumped by over 5%, and in virgin olive oil, which rose by 2.66%. These changes suggest heightened market activity and growing supply concerns as the new harvest season approaches.
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In Greece, prices for extra virgin and lampante olive oils have edged up modestly, while the price for virgin olive oil has remained stable, indicating a balanced market with steady demand and inventories. Italy, meanwhile, continues to command a significant premium for extra virgin olive oil, with prices holding steady at exceptionally high levels. This stability, despite ongoing scarcity, underscores Italy’s status as a premium market. Overall, the data points to a firming olive oil market in southern Europe, with Spain showing the most volatility in lower-grade oils and Italy maintaining its position as the high-price leader.
Market Updates
Summer is usually seen as a challenging period for the olive oil industry, with August being a "dead month" in Spain, Italy, and Greece due to the holiday season.
By the end of last week, the Spanish market saw an increase in all categories, and our experts believe that prices for lampante oil might reach €3.00–€3.05 per kg. Currently, the market remains active, as many olive oil owners are trying to empty their tanks before the new harvest arrives.
In Italy, the market remains under pressure due to limited availability of olive oil — a situation expected to continue next year. Italian buyers are currently seeking the lowest-priced options that still meet their quality standards.
Spanish producers are also dealing with extreme heat, which is affecting the blooming of the olive trees. However, this growing rumor about serious blooming issues in Spain is not yet confirmed by official sources. Everyone in the market is waiting for the official harvest forecast, expected between late August and early September.
In recent weeks, Spanish buyers have already purchased large volumes of extra virgin olive oil, allowing them to slow down new purchases. In contrast, Italian buyers are still actively searching for supply, remaining worried about fulfilling their needs in the upcoming months.
Overall, Spanish market offers are just at the edge of acceptable quality, with concerns around ethyl ester levels, pricing, and taste.
In Crete, Greece, the market isn’t performing well. Offered prices are going up, and mill owners are waiting for producers to agree to sell based on current demand. Market prices remain lower than what they are asking for.
Unconfirmed reports of a poor upcoming Spanish harvest are fueling expectations of further price increases. As a result, many producers are still holding back, hoping to sell at higher prices, though there’s no official data confirming this yet.
On the customer side, Greek buyers — especially bottlers — are using up their remaining stocks. They expect prices to drop and are waiting for AICA data to be published next week. A price drop is also anticipated after July 15. Meanwhile, Greek FPUs (Food Production Units) are still purchasing olive oil due to ongoing production.
How is extreme weather causing changes in olive oil flavor profiles?
Extreme weather, particularly heatwaves, drought, and irregular rainfall, can cause noticeable changes in olive oil flavor profiles. Hot, dry summers accelerate olive ripening, resulting in oils that are generally sweeter, fruitier, and higher in oleic acid. However, these conditions can also lower levels of antioxidants and polyphenols, making the oil less bitter and pungent, and reducing its shelf life and stability. On the other hand, cooler, wetter conditions (less common this season) tend to produce oils with more bitterness, grassy notes, and enhanced aroma due to higher polyphenol content.
Heat stress and water scarcity can shift the oil’s fatty acid composition. High temperatures are linked to lower oleic acid and higher palmitic and linoleic acid levels, which can make the oil taste less smooth and more prone to oxidation.
Rainfall timing is also crucial for the development of the olive oil profile. Autumn rains can enrich the oil’s composition, but excessive rain during harvest can dilute flavors and lower aromatic intensity. Enzymatic activity increases with temperature, intensifying reactions like lipolysis and oxidation, which can lead to flatter, less vibrant flavors and a decrease in aromatic complexity9.
Another aspect that affects the olive oil profile is varietal sensitivity. Some olive varieties, such as Leccino, are more responsive to seasonal changes and show greater year-to-year flavor variation, while others, like Casaliva (Italian olive tree), remain more stable.
In southern Spain and much of Italy, this year’s heat and drought are expected to yield oils with milder, sweeter, and less complex profiles compared to cooler, wetter years, when oils are typically more robust and peppery.
In summary, extreme weather, specifically heat waves, has become a reality for olive oil-producing countries. This phenomenon is pushing flavor profiles toward sweeter, less bitter, and less aromatic oils, with potential reductions in healthful compounds and shelf life—a marked difference from the bold, grassy, and pungent oils typical of cooler, wetter years.
Conclusion
The European olive oil market remains highly dynamic as the summer progresses, with price volatility most pronounced in Spain and persistent premium levels in Italy. Extreme weather not only shapes supply and pricing but also leaves a clear imprint on the sensory qualities of the produced oils. As producers, buyers, and bottlers navigate these uncertainties, all eyes are now on the imminent publication of AICA data next week. This report is expected to provide critical insights into stock levels and market direction, and could play a pivotal role in shaping pricing and procurement strategies for the weeks ahead.
Sources:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/B978012374420300005X
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9647867/
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