Overview
This week, the olive oil market enters a pivotal phase marked by rising temperatures, tightening inventories, and firming prices across most origins. Spain and Italy led the gains, with extra virgin prices rising 3.0% and 3.3% respectively, and Italy maintaining the premium. Despite a softening trading volume with the summer slowdown, demand for high-quality oils remains strong. The market reflects growing storage pressure and persistent quality-driven premiums heading into August.
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Market Updates By Country
Greece
In Crete, the olive oil market remains stable with firm pricing across all grades. Extra virgin olive oil is trading between €4.05 and €4.35/kg, reflecting ongoing demand for high-quality products. Virgin olive oil prices range from €3.50 to €3.70/kg, while lampante oil is being offered between €2.40 and €2.60/kg, maintaining previous levels amid limited movement in lower-grade oils.
In the Peloponnese, extra virgin olive oil is holding steady at €4.15/kg, marking the lower end of last week's €4.15–€4.20/kg trading range. This reflects continued caution among Greek producers. Lampante oil is now priced at €2.50/kg, with supply nearly exhausted. The slight price recovery suggests improving demand for processing-grade oils. With high summer temperatures threatening to accelerate quality degradation, some pressure is building to move stock before the onset of August heat.
Spain
Spain's olive oil market showed solid upward momentum in Week 31, supported by tight supply and ongoing weather-related production pressure. Extra virgin olive oil rose 3.0% to €3.73/kg, with 1,447.30 tonnes traded. Virgin olive oil saw the most substantial gain, up 4.4% to €3.32/kg on 127.00 tonnes, while lampante remained about the same at €2.98/kg with 710.00 tonnes exchanged. Producers are cautious, with limited willingness to engage in large-volume deals. Total volume across all grades reached 2,284.30 tonnes, as sellers adopt a more defensive stance ahead of the August slowdown.
Italy
Italian extra virgin olive oil surged 3.3% this week to €9.30/kg, reinforcing its premium leadership and widening the gap over Spanish equivalents to a notable €5.57/kg. The increase reflects persistent domestic supply constraints and renewed packer demand as buyers begin restocking ahead of the new harvest. Virgin and lampante grades saw no reported trading activity, underscoring Italy's continued focus on high-quality segments. Despite broader market stabilization elsewhere, Italy's extra virgin olive oil pricing remains remarkably resilient, driven by limited availability and strong brand-driven demand.
Portugal
The Portuguese olive oil market remained stable in Week 31. Trading activity was limited, reflecting a typical summer slowdown and ample carry-over stocks from the strong 2024/25 harvest. Producers appear satisfied with current price levels, supported by steady domestic demand and no immediate pressure to move volumes. No significant price movement was reported across grades.
Tunisia
Tunisian olive oil markets remained quiet in Week 31, with minimal trading activity. Export volumes have declined sharply as remaining stocks near exhaustion and high temperatures affect oil quality. Lampante availability is also low. With domestic inventory nearly depleted, market participation is increasingly constrained, prompting buyers to shift sourcing toward Spain and Greece.
Turkey
Turkish extra virgin olive oil prices rose slightly in Week 31, maintaining competitiveness while responding to growing global demand. Virgin and lampante grades remained stable, benefiting from cost advantages in the bulk export market. Turkish extra virgin olive oil is supported by improving quality perceptions and strategic export efforts amid intensifying international competition.
Comparative Price Summary by Country & Grade
Extra Virgin Olive Oil
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Italy and Spain saw strong weekly price increases in extra virgin olive oil, with Italy up 3.3% to €9.30/kg and Spain up 3.0% to €3.73/kg, widening Italy's premium to €5.57/kg over Spain. Greece, by contrast, dipped 0.6% to €4.15/kg, reflecting cautious seller behavior amid summer heat concerns. These moves reflect tightening stocks in Italy and Spain and selective selling in Greece before the new harvest.
Virgin Olive Oil
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In week 31, Spanish virgin olive oil prices rose by 4.4%, moving from €3.18/kg to €3.32/kg. Although data for Greece and Italy remain unavailable in this summary, the week-on-week increase in Spain points to increased demand and tightening local stocks as summer storage pressure mounts. This rise after several weeks of stable or declining prices suggests a shift in miller and buyer sentiment, potentially signaling increased confidence in price support as carryover volumes diminish ahead of the new harvest.
Lampante
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In week 31, lampante oil prices in Greece rose from €2.40 to €2.50/kg, a modest 4.2% gain that suggests restocking interest or early signs of tighter supply as the season advances. Spain, meanwhile, saw its lampante price lower slightly from €2.99 to €2.98/kg, indicating price stability and steady supply-demand dynamics despite ongoing summer storage pressures. Italy's lampante prices were unavailable. Overall, the increase in Greek and Spanish high but steady levels points to a market in balance where buyers remain watchful for quality or harvest signals.
Market Sentiment & Buyer Behaviour
- Tight supply persists across the Mediterranean, and stock depletion accelerates as July comes to a close. Spain has sold most of its 2024/25 crop.
- Summer slowdown limits trade volume, especially as August nears.
- US tariffs (30% EU) prompt importers to front-load shipments, causing export concerns in some countries.
- Quality premiums widen, with Italian extra virgin olive oil leading at €9.30/kg vs. Spanish at €3.73/kg, highlighting growing buyer selectivity for certified, premium oils.
- Tunisia and Greece face supply gaps, benefiting Spanish and Italian producers who leverage pricing strategically.
Looking Ahead
As the August holidays approach, trading is expected to slow significantly. Low volumes may cause sharper price swings. Most Mediterranean producers hold minimal inventory, and forward contract activity may increase as buyers look to lock in supply during this relatively stable pricing window before new crop oils enter the market.
Olive oil supplies remain tight and will continue to deplete. Spain is approaching ideal mill profitability pricing and will likely remain stable. Italy may face sustainability pressure amid ongoing import reliance. In Greece, rising heat is pushing producers to accelerate sales, particularly for remaining lampante and virgin volumes.
Globally, attention is shifting toward weather risks, early yield signals, and how markets will respond once new crop forecasts emerge. The first major forecasts are due in mid-September and will likely set the tone for market sentiment going into the new campaign.
Conclusion
Week 31 marked a strong price recovery, led by Spain and Italy, as tightening supply and renewed buyer interest lifted markets. Italy holds its premium at €9.30/kg, while Spain and Greece remain competitive on volume. Limited supply, selective demand, and ongoing storage pressure support firm pricing.
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