Spanish olive oil market: AICA December 2025 data shows firm supply and continued commercial activity
Spain’s olive oil sector continues to demonstrate solid supply fundamentals as the 2025/26 campaign advances. Official data from the Agencia de Información y Control Alimentarios (AICA) for December 2025 confirms robust production, steady market exits, and substantial inventories — a combination that underscores the current state of the olive oil market.
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Production surges as harvest hits full speed
Olive oil production remained strong in December, reflecting a busy late-season harvest. Key figures so far:
- December production: 416,471 tonnes
- Cumulative production: 716,372 tonnes
This volume is sufficient to meet both domestic consumption and export demand. Despite some late-season weather variability, overall yields point to a solid campaign, boosting confidence across producing regions.
Market outputs hold firm
The olive oil sector maintained steady sales volumes in December, with 92,464 tonnes leaving the market, including imports.
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The UPA (Unión de Pequeños Agricultores y Ganaderos de Andalucía) reported that December 2025 production was about 30% lower than in the same month of 2024, while first-quarter sales were about 10% higher year-on-year — highlighting that commercial activity remains robust despite reduced production. Secretary General Jesús Cózar Pérez emphasised the need for stable origin prices to ensure that traditional olive growers can cover production costs and maintain profitability.
Inventory overview: Where are the olive oil stocks?
Total olive oil stocks at the end of December reached 715,735 tonnes, a level considered to be solid when viewed alongside current production and output figures.
Stock distribution is as follows:
- Producer stocks (mills): 550,895 tonnes
- Bottlers and refineries: 160,610 tonnes
- Spanish Olive Oil Growers’ Foundation stocks: 4,230 tonnes
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The concentration of inventory at the producer level is notable, suggesting that a large portion of December’s output continues to be managed at origin before moving through bottling and marketing channels.
Supply chain resilience improves
Rebuilt inventories provide a strategic buffer that was largely absent during the 2023–2024 campaigns. While commercialisation continues steadily, the current stock structure suggests many operators are prioritising price stability over rapid sales.
For the supply chain, the data points to improved resilience: production remains strong, market outputs are consistent, oil supply meets demand, logistical bottlenecks are fewer, and exposure to short-term shocks is reduced.
International market highlights
- Greece: Production is low and of lower quality, with many oils exhibiting high acidity levels. Trade activity is limited, especially towards Italy. Most movement is in lampante and pomace oils, while EVOO is being sold slowly and selectively.
- Portugal: About half of the harvest has been sold. Producers are currently in no rush to sell, maintaining a relaxed pace.
- Tunisia: Prices are low, and producers are eager to sell. Both Italy and Spain are actively purchasing. Total production is estimated at around 450,000 tonnes. Contingent oils are priced significantly higher than temporary import (TPA) volumes. Sales are expected to remain active through April.
- Italy: Olive oil is expensive but of very high quality. Consumer demand remains strong. Prices range from €6.30 to €7.20 per kg, reflecting the high premium quality.
Looking ahead: Key factors shaping early 2026
As the market moves into early 2026, attention shifts from production to commercial performance. Domestic consumption and export demand will need to absorb the growing stock base and prevent downward pressure on prices.
Key factors to watch:
- Price behaviour at origin as producers release larger volumes;
- Bottlers’ and refiners’ capacity to process large volumes efficiently without stock congestion;
- Export sales performance, particularly in the EU and key third countries.
Overall, Spain enters 2026 with a more balanced and resilient olive oil market. Ample supply mitigates the risk of shortages, but sustained demand and disciplined inventory management will be key to maintaining market stability.
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