Spain's olive oil storage rule threshold

On data published by the Spanish agriculture ministry itself, opening stocks and estimated olive oil production for the 2026/27 campaign reach 1,959,500 tonnes, 6.3% above the threshold set by the draft order for mandatory storage, according to a Wikifarmer calculation. Under the same draft's formula, mills would have to keep about 189,000 tonnes off the market, close to 12% of Spanish production. The ministry has announced neither the threshold nor whether it is met, and a decision on activation and the percentage is due by 15 November.

Chart of opening stocks plus olive oil production in Spain from 2020/21 to 2026/27, with the six-campaign average and the 120% threshold

Opening stocks plus production by campaign, the average of the six previous campaigns and the 120% threshold set by the draft order. Wikifarmer calculation from Spanish agriculture ministry data.

The rule counts stocks together with the new crop

Article 4 of the draft ministerial order setting the marketing rule for 2026/27 states that withdrawing olive oil from the market requires opening stocks plus estimated production equal to or above 120% of the average of that same sum over the six previous campaigns. The rule applies Article 167a of Regulation (EU) No 1308/2013 through Spain's Royal Decree 84/2021.

For 2026/27 both figures are now public, since the ministry's first national estimate on 1 October puts production at 1,602,596 tonnes, and stocks at 30 September, which are the opening stocks of the new campaign, stand at 356,914 tonnes according to the ministry's provisional market data. Together they come to 1,959,510 tonnes.

The threshold works out at about 1,844,000 tonnes

For the six previous campaigns, 2020/21 to 2025/26, we used ministry data from its October 2025 market bulletin, its campaign balances and, for 2025/26, opening stocks of 290,500 tonnes and production of 1,301,800 tonnes to the end of August. The average of opening stocks plus production is 1,536,800 tonnes, so the 120% threshold works out at 1,844,100 tonnes.

Campaign	Opening stocks plus production, thousand tonnes
2020/21	1,881.2
2021/22	1,916.6
2022/23	1,120.6
2023/24	1,103.8
2024/25	1,606.2
2025/26	1,592.3
Six-campaign average	1,536.8
Threshold, 120% of the average	1,844.1
2026/27	1,959.5

Source: Wikifarmer calculation from Spanish agriculture ministry data. For 2020/21 and 2021/22, stocks by campaign are derived from the bulletin's four-campaign average and the 2022/23 and 2023/24 balances. Figures for 2025/26 and 2026/27 are provisional.

The 2026/27 campaign clears the threshold by about 115,000 tonnes, or 6.3%. The margin is wide enough that small revisions to stocks or production do not change the conclusion, since a fall of more than 115,000 tonnes would be needed to bring Spain below the threshold.

Storage could reach about 12% of production

The draft order also sets out how the quantity is calculated. From the campaign's estimated resources, meaning opening stocks, production and the average imports of the last six campaigns, it subtracts 120% of the average of the two campaigns with the highest marketed volume, where marketed volume is the domestic market plus exports. The difference is expressed as a share of production and cannot exceed 20%.

Average imports over the six campaigns are about 213,200 tonnes, which puts estimated resources for 2026/27 at 2,172,700 tonnes. The two campaigns with the highest marketed volume were 2020/21 and 2021/22, with an average of about 1,653,300 tonnes, and 120% of that average is 1,984,000 tonnes. The difference, about 189,000 tonnes, equals 12% of production of 1,602,596 tonnes, below the 20% ceiling of about 320,500 tonnes.

Under the draft, the percentage is set by the Directorate-General for Agricultural Production and Markets in a resolution published in Spain's official gazette, the BOE, by 15 November. Each mill applies it to its own declared production, chooses which grade of oil to hold back and keeps it until the following campaign.

The figures will change with final data

The calculation is ours and may differ from the ministry's, because the 356,914 tonnes of stocks are provisional, as is 2025/26 production, and for 2025/26 imports we used the ministry's May estimate of 220,000 tonnes. Each change of 10,000 tonnes in stocks or production moves the percentage by about 0.6 points. The ministry may also use marketed volumes from a different source than the one we used.

The text we read is the draft order put out for consultation in July, and the final order may differ. The same draft lets the ministry reduce the quantity by a new resolution after 31 December 2026, while bottlers and exporters, through the associations ANIERAC and ASOLIVA, oppose activation, which the farm organisations requested on 8 October.

The volume is close to two thirds of the Greek crop

If storage is activated at close to 12%, the roughly 189,000 tonnes kept off the market are about two thirds of Greece's 2026/27 crop, estimated at 280,000 to 300,000 tonnes, and close to two thirds of the increase Spain expects over 2025/26, about 300,000 tonnes. The comparison concerns volumes only and is not a price forecast, as prices will also depend on demand, other countries' crops and how the market reacts to the decision. We follow the wider picture in our olive oil outlook for 2026/27.