A strong harvest in Spain, but uncertainty weighs on the olive oil market
The global olive oil market heads into the final weeks of 2025 under uncertainty. Producers in Spain, Greece, and Italy are weighing their positions carefully, while supply from Portugal and Tunisia remains abundant. A divide has emerged: some producers are holding out for higher prices, while buyers anticipate a market correction in January.
This week’s digest features an update from a Córdoba producer, providing exclusive, firsthand insights into the Spanish harvest and market trends.
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An update from the fields
Ignacio Estrada of Emporium AOVE in Córdoba, Spain, which operates two olive farms, a mill, and a bottling facility, provides insight from the ground.
The harvest in the region started later than usual, on 28th October. Estrada explains: “This year, the Picual olives were at the usual stage of ripeness. The Hojiblanca, however, started a little later, due to the weather.”
So far, production in the region is lower than last year. “We’ve observed a much smaller harvest. Last year was particularly large, and naturally, olive trees can’t maintain that every year. The weather has also had an impact.”
Many dryland groves initially appeared to have lost yield, but recent rainfall aided recovery. “We expect a lower production than last year in this area, but not a dramatic drop,” adds Estrada. Spring suggested a potentially above-average crop, but a long summer and delayed rains dampened expectations.
Estrada is optimistic about quality. “We’re satisfied with the quality we’ve achieved this year, both bottled and in bulk,” says Estrada. Yet, he cautions that the broader market may face challenges.
“It does appear this year may not be a high-quality year for the market in general,” Estrada says. “There might be a larger gap than usual between standard olive oil and extra virgin olive oil.”
He explains that the long summer prevented olives from fully developing oil during their formation phase. The late October and November rains helped quantity but not quality, as olives that absorb water just before harvest are not ideal for top-quality oil.
Looking ahead, Estrada expects stability in bulk prices: “High-quality oil is around €5 per kilo, standard extra virgin olive oil €4–4.50. I don’t expect much fluctuation during this campaign; the range is likely to stay between €4.50 and €5.00. February will be a turning point, showing total production and demand trends, which we expect will continue to grow.”
Key takeaway: While quantity may recover, quality remains the challenge, potentially widening the gap between standard and premium grades.
Spain: Stagnant market amidst uncertainty
Spain’s market remains largely stagnant as traders await definitive production figures.
- Buyers are increasingly sourcing from Tunisia, lowering domestic pressure.
- Mills are acquiring olives at reduced rates, supporting slightly higher selling prices, but bottlers feel squeezed by retail contracts at lower price points.
- Some market observers anticipate EVOO prices could fall below €4/kg in January.
Current prices:
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The price gap between good-quality EVOO and lower-quality EVOO remains wide. VOO is scarce, as there is none left from last season.
Greece: High-quality oil in short supply
Greek mills face a challenging environment as high heat and humidity have affected fruit quality, reducing high-quality EVOO availability.
- Harvests are declining and expected to finish by February, earlier than usual.
- Mills are retaining the high-quality oils ( low acidity ~0.3) in hopes of fetching higher prices.
- Lampante production has just begun from ground-harvested olives, with broader availability expected soon.
Some Greek traders are importing Spanish oil for blending, aiming to create acceptable taste profiles for international buyers.
Current prices on Crete:
Italy: Buyers hold off amid price uncertainty
Italian market activity remains subdued. Buyers are hesitant to purchase, waiting for the European Commission’s crop data in January to clarify harvest volumes.
- Current EVOO pricing: €6.70/kg
- Many packers are sourcing from Tunisia to fulfil orders, avoiding more expensive Spanish or Greek oils.
- Price expectations hinge on crop size: a strong harvest could push prices down, while lower yields may drive them up.
This cautious approach is keeping Italian market movement minimal heading into the New Year.
EVOO price comparison by country
Portugal: Little oil on the market
Most fresh Portuguese oil is being withheld from the market, creating supply uncertainty. Stakeholders anticipate a surge soon, potentially driving down prices in Spain and Greece.
Tunisia: Emerging major EU supplier
Abundant Tunisian stocks are likely to exert downward pressure on Spanish and Greek prices in December and January.
Market outlook: Awaiting January crop data
Looking ahead, the market is poised for more movement once critical harvest figures are released.
- Many buyers are holding off purchases, anticipating a possible €0.30/kg drop in Spanish oil.
- Price divergence between Greek and Spanish EVOO could widen. If Spanish oil drops below €4/kg while Greek oil remains around €4.80/kg, intermediaries could see profitable opportunities.
- The market is quiet ahead of Christmas, with minimal movement until crop data provides clarity.
For now, traders remain cautious, monitoring both Spanish and Greek oils, as the Mediterranean olive oil market closes out 2025 in a holding pattern.
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