Olive oil market navigates volatility amid new harvest transition
The European olive oil market is in flux as it transitions from last season’s stock to the 2025 harvest. This shift is creating price volatility and strategic adjustments among producers, packers, and exporters across Spain, Greece, and beyond.
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Spain: Market transition to the new harvest
- Old stock exhausted: Spain’s reserves of last year’s olive oil are nearly sold out, leaving the market dependent on new EVOO. This transition has contributed to short-term price fluctuations.
Price trends:
- Quality and production outlook: Despite an initially delayed harvest due to rain, production quality and yields are strong. Spain’s total production is projected at 1.4–1.5 million tonnes, slightly above earlier estimates. This is fueling discussions about establishing a price floor for the new crop.
- Price forecast: With harvesting now underway and the rains concluded, experts anticipate that the era of steep price increases is coming to an end. Some moderate price corrections may occur in the short term.
- Packer activity: Large packers who pre-purchased oil at lower future prices in September and October are beginning to withdraw their stock. This is expected to increase market activity and influence fresh crop quotations ahead of the holiday season.
Greece: Rising prices amid scarcity
Unlike Spain, Greece is experiencing upward pressure on olive oil prices, especially for premium and organic EVOO.
Price trends:
Old crop (2024/2025):
- EVOO: €3.80-4.20/kg
- VOO: €3.40-3.70/kg
- Lampante: €2.80-3.30/kg
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New EVOO (2025/2026):
- €4.80-5.40, but high-quality lots can exceed €5.50/kg
 - New vs. Old Crop (1).jpg)
Organic EVOO is scarce, with prices rising from €5.50 to €5.70 per kilogram, and some sellers asking even more.
- Scarcity effects: Limited availability of new organic oils has prompted some producers to retain last year’s stock. This strategy aims to blend it with the new harvest to enhance quality, rather than selling it immediately.
- Quality update: Harvesting continues, with oil quality improving in some areas of Crete, although not consistently across the island.
Lampante oil: An emerging opportunity
- Market potential: Lower-grade refined oils are gaining attention. Traders are advised to monitor upcoming lots, particularly those of good quality with acidity levels of up to two degrees.
- Blending: In regions like Greece, where EVOO is scarce, Lampante is being mixed with EVOO to create cost-effective products for buyers who prioritise basic quality over premium extra virgin standards.
Market outlook
The olive oil market remains dynamic. Spain’s healthy production forecast signals long-term stability and potential price moderation, while Greece’s organic scarcity supports short-term price increases.
With packers withdrawing pre-purchased stock and the new crop entering the market, industry participants are closely watching for the establishment of a price floor in the coming weeks.
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