October data wrap and mid-November update
The olive oil market is experiencing high prices and quality challenges. The new harvest has started, but shortages of premium oil, combined with delayed harvesting and inconsistent quality, are shaping the market dynamics. While old-season stocks are virtually depleted, the gradual availability of new crop oil is stabilising trade—but price movements remain unpredictable.
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Quality crisis in the new crop
The 2025 harvest is facing notable quality issues, particularly affecting lower-grade oils:
Low-quality EVOO:
- Oils from Portugal and parts of Spain are trading at €4.10–€4.20/kg, reaching up to €4.50/kg.
- Hot weather during production has resulted in a higher incidence of substandard oils.
High-quality EVOO:
- Premium, fresh extra virgin olive oil is rare. Asking prices in Spain hover around €5.00/kg, but few buyers are willing to pay this rate.
Current fresh EVOO prices (€/kg):
Spain's €4.9/kg is up 5.1% from last week, Greece's €5.25/kg remains stable, and Italy's €7.91/kg is down 7.46% from the previous week.
Country-by-country market update
Spain: Market & insights
Rains, reservoirs, & market sentiment
Harvesting has begun, particularly in Córdoba, following the October rainfall that reduced drought risk but delayed harvesting in some regions. Additional rain forecast this weekend may pause harvesting for 5–6 days.
Current reservoir levels show varying conditions across the country:
- Guadalquivir basin: 41.19%, up from 34.67% same week 2024 and up 35.75% from 10-year average
- Segura basin: 19.74%
Stocks (as of October 31)
As of October 31, total stocks stood at 223,517 tons, including both new crop and carryover. It is split between:
- Packers: 92,906 tons
- Farmers/producers: 129,114 tons (including 41,000 tons from new crop).
October production & output:
- Production: October production (new crop) reached 41,611 tons, exceeding the initial forecast, although quality remains inconsistent.
- Total output (domestic + exports): 106,309 tons. This is slightly below the 2025 monthly average output of 116,075 tons, but higher than figures for the last two years.
Price trends & outlook
Despite the industry initially waiting for lower prices, bulk prices are now stabilising at €4.15–€4.20/kg, down from €4.50/kg for old stocks. However, early EVOO lots have traded at near €5/kg in some cases.
Greece: Regional insights
- Crete: Early oils show low quality with 0.6° acidity. Old lots are being reserved for blending.
- Peloponnese: Better quality is reported, with ex-work prices ranging from €4.40 to €4.60/kg.
Portugal: Milling & market activity
Large-scale operations have begun milling, but overall volumes remain limited due to delayed harvesting.
Lower-grade oils
- Lampante oil: Much of the fresh oil from the new crop is being classified as lampante. New Spanish lampante is priced at €3.25/kg.
- Refined oil: Trading around €3.45/kg in bulk. Prices may ease slightly to €3.35/kg by late December, though a significant drop is not expected before early 2026.
- Pomace oil: A short-term price increase is expected in November due to tight supply, with a gradual normalisation in December. Buyers are advised to secure their volumes early, as availability is expected to remain limited in the short term.
Market outlook
- No significant price drops are currently anticipated.
- Market stability is expected as new-season oil becomes more available.
- Prices may become more accessible for the 2025/26 oils as supply increases, provided quality improves.
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