Spain's rain delays price drop as Greece faces quality challenges
The global olive oil market remains quiet this week, with prices largely frozen as rainfall in Spain delays the much-anticipated harvest and potential price correction. Early reports from Greece confirm fears of lower yields and worsening quality, while Italy continues to hold its premium market position with limited stock.
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Spain: Rainfall delays harvest, quality issues persist
Weather and harvest conditions
Recent rainfall across Andalusia, particularly in Seville and Córdoba, has temporarily relieved drought-stressed olive groves. However, wet conditions have halted fieldwork and delayed milling, freezing the market in anticipation of a major supply release later in November.
Market sentiment
Buyers, including bottlers, packers, and supermarkets, are holding back on bulk purchases. They expect that mass production will increase availability and trigger a price correction between mid-November and December.
Prices and quality (old crop 2024/2025)
The remaining stocks from the previous campaign exhibit borderline quality, with elevated chemical parameters, making purchases risky without proper analysis.
- Borderline quality oil: €4.15/kg
- Average quality oil: €4.35–€4.40/kg
- Premium oil: €4.80–€4.90/kg
New crop outlook (2025/2026)
Early samples from the new season are underwhelming in taste and fruitiness, primarily due to pre-rain heat stress.
- Low-quality oil: ~€4.80/kg
- Good-quality oil: €5.00–€5.50/kg
Greece: High acidity and limited supply drive up old crop prices
Harvest update
The Greek olive harvest has begun in some regions and is gradually expanding across the country. Producers face multiple challenges:
- Higher acidity: Worse than last year overall.
- Olive fruit fly damage remains a persistent challenge this season.
- Lower oil yield ratio: Poor olive-to-oil conversion suggests reduced volumes.
Market dynamics
Many Greek producers are holding back old stock to blend and correct defects in the new crop oil. This creates short-term scarcity and supports higher prices.
Prices (old crop 2024/2025)
- EVOO: €4.20–€4.50/kg
- VOO: €3.60–€3.95/kg
- Lampante: €2.85–€3.30/kg
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Some lower-priced oil is available from the Peloponnese region (€4.20–€4.30/kg), though quality parameters remain uncertain.
Italy: Premium position and limited stock
Harvest & production outlook
Italy enters the 2025/26 season with modest optimism, with forecasts suggesting a production recovery in favourable regions, such as the south. However, many groves remain vulnerable to Xylella fastidiosa, especially in Puglia, limiting aggressive replanting or expansion.
Market sentiment & demand
Italian olive oil prices have remained relatively firm through recent months, supported by low inventories and strong domestic demand. Rising costs and market tightness, however, are beginning to affect even local consumers.
Prices (old crop 2024/2025)
- EVOO: €9.30/kg
Italian mills prioritise quality preservation, likely holding top lots for bottling rather than bulk sales, which reinforces price stability.
Risks & market dynamics
- Weather and pest stress could reduce the volume of top-tier grades.
- Supply concentration in southern regions increases vulnerability to Xylella and adverse weather.
- Premium pricing fatigue: Some buyers may seek cheaper alternatives from Spain, Greece, or North Africa for blending or bulk use.
- Fraud risk: High prices increase scrutiny on mislabeling; authorities are intensifying inspections.
 - 20242025 crop.jpg)
Outlook: All eyes on Andalusia
The global olive oil market remains in a holding pattern. If rainfall in southern Spain improves, yields could increase, leading to lower prices later in Q4 2025. Until then, high old-crop prices, limited new oil supply, and ongoing quality concerns continue to suppress trading volumes.
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