Delayed harvests, tight supply, and price uncertainty shape the global olive oil market
The global olive oil market is navigating a complex mix of challenges this week. Harvest delays, weather-related production issues, and limited bulk stock availability are creating price uncertainty across the Mediterranean.
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Weather-driven delays and rising olive oil prices
This season's olive harvest is facing significant delays, pushing prices upward across major producing regions. Marcos Lesmes, manager of the San Sebastián Cooperative in Córdoba, Spain, explains that persistent drought and low rainfall are setting the tone for the entire olive oil market.
"The climate sets the tone for everything," Lesmes explains. "With such low rainfall, the number of olives per hectare is lower, and the oil content within each fruit is also reduced. The sugars that generate the oil haven't had enough time to develop due to the drought, so we'll have less oil overall—and that will push prices upward."
Prices are already trending higher, with little sign of stabilization. The combination of last season's supply shortages and delays in the new crop has prompted bulk buyers and contract negotiators to compete for limited volumes.
"It's simply the law of supply and demand," Lesmes says. "There's limited supply and ongoing demand, so prices can only go up."
Quality concerns are also mounting. Many olives are drying and wrinkling on the trees, a process that can negatively affect both flavor and chemical composition.
"This won't be a high-quality year," Lesmes admits, noting that extra virgin olive oil from the upcoming harvest is likely to fall short compared to previous seasons in both sensory profile and chemical characteristics.
Country-by-country market update
Spain: The global leader runs on empty
- New crop status: The 2025/2026 harvest is significantly delayed. Large-scale commercial harvesting is expected to begin in about two weeks, leaving virtually no oil available for large transactions.
- Price dynamics & yield: Market activity remains paused as buyers hold back purchases, anticipating a price correction. However, ongoing drought conditions suggest the final yield may be lower than anticipated, potentially limiting downward price pressure.
- Origin prices: EVOO €4.74/kg
Italy: Premium market leader
- Market positioning: Italy continues to command higher prices due to smaller domestic production and strong branding around quality and premium EVOO.
- Origin prices: EVOO €9.20/kg
Greece: Dual-market reality
Peloponnese
- New crop & availability: Beneficial rainfall last week has improved crop prospects, boosting grower confidence.
- Challenges: Old stock has nearly sold out, creating tight supply for mid-range grades such as VOO.
- Origin prices: EVOO €4.40/kg
Crete
- Old stock & quality: Most mills are eager to sell remaining stock, although some EVOO samples fail to meet category standards.
- New crop: Harvesting has been delayed by adverse weather, but recent rainfall should allow picking to start in about two weeks.
- Premium market: Early-harvest EVOO remains highly coveted, commanding €8–€14/kg for small orders.
- Origin prices: EVOO €4.20-4.60/kg, VOO €3.40-3.95/kg, lampante €2.85-3.25/kg.
Portugal: Supply crunch mirrors Spain
- New crop status: Virtually no oil is currently available. Large-scale harvesting is delayed, expected to begin in about two weeks, aligning with Spain’s timeline.
Global trends & market behavior
- Cautious buyers: Forward contracts remain limited as buyers await market stabilization, keeping bulk transactions low.
- Long-term stability: Spain's 2025/2026 production is projected at 1.44 million tonnes, similar to last year, suggesting eventual market balance.
- Premiumization trend: Demand continues to shift toward premium, EVOO, and organic olive oils. Key differentiators include traceability, sustainability, and packaging.
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