The global olive oil market is currently facing a complex period. Prices are under pressure as major producing countries grapple with extreme heat, a lack of rain, and low stock levels ahead of the new harvest. This report provides an overview of key factors influencing the market, including production forecasts, price trends, and demand, focusing on major producing regions.
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Rising weather and price concerns
Rain is the primary concern for olive growers this season. "The olives are wrinkled and smaller. Everything depends on whether it rains or not. If it rains, the olives will become plumper and ripen a little earlier," said Javier, manager of Pruna Oliva cooperative in Seville.
Prices for high-quality olive oil are also rising due to limited supply. "Those who have quality oil, by offering it, can take advantage of getting better prices. Buyers need this type of oil, and in the end, they have to pay for it. There is less and less of it," said Javier. The cooperative plans to begin harvesting in early November, but the timing and final yield will depend heavily on the weather.
Spanish olive oil market
The Spanish olive oil market is under pressure due to ongoing heatwaves and a lack of rainfall. If rain does not arrive within the next 2–3 weeks, production could suffer substantial losses.
Prices
- EVOO: €4.18/kg
- VOO: €3.77/kg
- Lampante: €3.46/kg
Production and stocks
As of the end of August:
- Total production from the new crop reached 1,415,380 tons.
- Total stocks, including carryover, stood at 404,613 tons, with 165,842 tons held by packers and 238,771 tons held by farmers.
- Monthly outputs in August, combining domestic consumption and exports, totaled 105,215 tons, slightly below the 2025 monthly average of 117,111 tons.
Market outlook
Supplies of high-quality Extra Virgin Olive Oil (EVOO) are increasingly tight, with limited availability of premium grades. This constrained inventory, currently around 400,000 MT, will likely support firm short-term pricing. Market activity may see speculative moves as buyers position ahead of the new campaign.
Other olive oil markets
- Italy: Initial harvest results show signs of a rebound following the drought-affected 2024 season, although the outcome will depend on weather conditions in the coming weeks. Pricing maintains a premium.
- Greece: EVOO prices in the Peloponnese are not anticipated below €4.80-5.00/kg. In Crete, good-quality oil is available at around €4.9/kg, but demand remains low.
- Portugal: The harvest is expected to be similar to the previous season, at approximately 160,000 tons.
- Tunisia: A strong harvest is anticipated, although cyclically lower than last year's. Prices may soften in the coming months due to financial pressures and weaker demand from US tariffs.
- Turkey: Production is expected to be lower this season, but significant carryover stocks from the previous campaign provide market support.
Weekly EVOO price comparison: Major producers
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Market trends: Slowing demand and consumption
The market is experiencing a general slowdown, with overall demand remaining low. Adverse weather conditions, including limited rainfall and smaller olive sizes in key regions, have created challenges for the new crop. Buyers are cautious, purchasing only what is immediately needed while waiting for the new oil to become available. This cautious buying has slowed market activity, reducing transport and logistical operations in major producing countries.
Conclusion
The Mediterranean olive oil market is approaching the new harvest with caution. Overall, market activity is subdued, with the coming weeks' weather likely to shape supply and prices.
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