Olive Oil Market Digest w23/2025

Global Olive Oil Market Dynamics: Week 23/2025

European Market developments

Last week, the Spanish olive oil market exhibited promising signs of recovery, particularly in terms of pricing dynamics. A number of transactions were reported involving high-quality extra virgin olive oil, with prices surpassing the market average. This uptick in pricing is noteworthy, especially considering the current economic climate. However, it is important to highlight that buyers are increasingly steering clear of low-quality extra virgin olive oil, which is being offered at lower price points. This trend is contributing to an overall but not significant increase in market prices, as the purchases for higher-quality products remain strong.

As we transition into June, the looming threat of potential heatwaves could significantly impact the olive oil market, particularly concerning storage conditions. High temperatures have the potential to further compromise the quality of this year's olive oil, which has already been assessed as standard based on panel tests. Producers and suppliers alike are keeping a close eye on weather forecasts, as the quality of the product is paramount for maintaining consumer trust and market stability.

Bottlers in the Spanish market are currently feeling a sense of relief, as they report having sufficient stocks of extra virgin olive oil on hand. However, they are exhibiting caution when it comes to making new purchases, as they anticipate a slight decrease in prices in the near future. This cautious approach reflects a broader trend in the market, where buyers are weighing their options carefully before committing to new inventory.

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In Spain, the average price for extra virgin olive oil at origin recently hovered around €3.78/kg, with some regional variations. In Andalusia, for example, EVOO prices saw a 7.28% uptick over the last 10 days, reaching €3.88/kg.

Virgin and lampante olive oils have also experienced minor fluctuations, with lampante averaging €2.83/kg and virgin olive oil at €3.15/kg.This decline may indicate a shift in consumer preferences or market dynamics, prompting suppliers to reassess their pricing strategies.

Turning our attention to Greece, we observe that after a gradual decline in prices, the olive oil market has finally stabilized. Interestingly, there is currently a 10-cent price difference between the two primary olive oil-producing regions: Peloponnese and Crete. Despite this stabilization, suppliers in both regions are showing reluctance to sell at the current market prices. They are holding out for better offers, with expectations to sell for 10 to 20 cents above the current prices. However, it is worth noting that it may be too late in the season for these anticipated price increases to materialize. For producers, it is crucial to liquidate their stocks in order to meet their financial obligations and maintain operational viability.

Meanwhile, in Italy, prices for olive oil continue to remain above the market average. Over the past few months, Italian buyers, who typically source their olive oil from Greece, have shown a preference for Spanish offers due to the lower delivered prices. However, with the recent price drop in the Greek market, there is a renewed interest from Italian buyers in sourcing from Greece again. This renewed interest will largely depend on the quality of the available extra virgin olive oil, as quality remains a key factor in purchasing decisions.

In summary, the olive oil market across Spain, Greece, and Italy is currently experiencing a complex interplay of pricing dynamics, quality considerations, and regional influences that will shape the landscape in the coming months. Producers and suppliers must navigate these challenges carefully to ensure their continued success in this competitive market.

Export Activity & International Demand

Spanish olive oil exports have picked up slightly in May, especially to non-EU destinations. The US and Japan have increased orders, taking advantage of the recent stabilization in prices. Exporters report a shift toward smaller, more frequent shipments as buyers remain cautious about future price movements.

In addition, after last year’s export ban, Turkish olive oil continues to enter the EU at competitive prices, especially in bulk. This is putting pressure on Spanish and Italian exporters, who are lobbying for stricter import controls or quality checks to maintain market share. Tunisia is also actively negotiating new contracts with EU bottlers for the summer.

Weather and Crop Development for 2025/26

Olive groves in southern Spain and Sicily are showing early flowering, attributed to a warm and wet spring. Agronomists caution that a hot, dry June could stress trees and impact fruit set, which would influence the 2025/26 crop size.

Regarding water management, reservoir levels in Andalusia and Peloponnese are currently above the five-year average, providing some optimism for irrigation if summer drought conditions develop.

Stocks and Consumption

Stock Recovery: The European Commission expects olive oil stocks to increase by the end of the 2024/25 season (September 2025) to 460,000 tons.
Consumption Trends: The European Commission projects a 7% increase in EU olive oil consumption in the 2024/25 season, following a 22% decline over the past two years as consumers switched to cheaper alternatives. Global consumption is also projected to rise by 10% to 3.064 million tons in 2025.

Market Challenges and Outlook

While 2025’s improved weather has boosted yields, the industry remains vulnerable to climate risks. Producers are investing in modern irrigation and drought-resistant varieties to mitigate future volatility.

The market is cautiously optimistic, with strong production and expected consumption growth. However, high retail prices and the risk of sudden weather changes remain concerns. The sector is also watching for possible price corrections as stocks normalize and imports from non-EU countries increase.

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