Olive Oil Prices and Market Monthly Report: September 2025
Spanish olive oil sector closes 2024/2025 campaign with record commercial activity
The 2024/2025 Spanish olive oil campaign (October 2024 – September 2025) concluded on a strong note, according to the latest data from the Agency for Food Information and Control (AICA). The total commercialized volume reached 1.53 million tonnes, setting a new record for volume moved in a single season.
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Key figures as of September 30, 2025
- Total accumulated production: 1,419,128 t
- September production: 3,725 t
- September outputs: 117,558 t
- Mill stocks: 138,078 t
- Bottler/packer stocks: 149,197 t
- Patrimonial stock: 2,943 t
- Total stocks: 290,218 t
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Record sales drive market momentum
The 2024/2025 campaign was distinguished by strong commercial activity, reflecting high demand both domestically and internationally.
- Total sales: Throughout the campaign, nearly 1,530,000 t of olive oil were sold, including domestic and export shipments.
- Monthly performance: September outputs reached 117,558 t, showing continued strong demand.
- Exports and pricing: Spain's strategy to expand exports and leverage favorable market conditions contributed to record sales.
Low carry-over stock increases market pressure
Despite high production, the rapid pace of sales has resulted in relatively low final stocks:
- Total stocks at campaign close: 290,218 t
- Stock distribution: Bottler/packer stocks (149,197 t) slightly exceeded mill stocks (138,078 t), indicating preemptive stockholding ahead of the new campaign.
- Market impact: Low carry-over stock may lead to price increases at the start of the 2025/2026 campaign as supply tightens while the market awaits new harvest forecasts.
Water reserves in Spain
Currently, Spain's reservoirs store approximately 29,745 hm³, representing 53.08% of total capacity (56,041 hm³). This is higher than the same week in 2024 (47%) and above the 10-year average (~44%).
Regional reservoir levels in key olive-producing areas:
- Andalusia: 43.3% of capacity
- Castilla-La Mancha: 50.6%
- Extremadura: 59.4%
- Murcia: 23.7%
Although levels have improved compared to last year, they remain below optimal for irrigation, particularly in Andalusia, where most olive groves are located. These conditions will be decisive for flowering and fruit set, directly affecting yields and oil quality for the 2025/2026 harvest.
Outlook for the 2025/2026 campaign
With minimal carry-over stock, attention shifts entirely to the next harvest.
- Production forecast: Spain's crop this year depends heavily on weather conditions. Favorable rainfall and early flowering raise optimism, though hot, dry spells could reduce yields and oil quality.
- Global context: Spain remains pivotal to the global olive oil supply. Italy expects its production to exceed 300,000 t, which may slightly reduce export pressure, but tight stock levels keep short-term prices elevated.
Conclusion
The 2024/2025 campaign's record sales set a high benchmark for the Spanish olive oil sector. However, market stability in the coming months will hinge on the size, quality, and timely availability of the 2025/2026 harvest, as well as water availability in key growing regions.
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