The 2026 El Niño and the risk to crops and food prices

On 2 June 2026, the World Meteorological Organization put the chance of an El Niño developing over June to August at 80%, rising to around 90% through November, with most models pointing to at least a moderate event and the possibility of a strong one (WMO), for farmers and food buyers, that turns a Pacific Ocean signal into a planning question for the rest of the season, because El Niño tends to change rainfall and push up temperatures across major growing regions at the same time.

This piece focuses on what the 2026 event suggests for crops, livestock, and prices. For the underlying mechanism, see our companion explainer on how El Niño affects agriculture.

How likely and how strong the 2026 El Niño is

The year opened with La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific, and those have faded as the ocean warms. By mid-May, the sea surface temperature anomaly in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific had reached about +0.8 to +0.9 °C, fed by a deep pool of subsurface water more than 6 °C above average that supplies the heat for further warming.

Forecasters expect the event to strengthen gradually and peak around the turn of the year. One caveat is built in: forecasts issued in spring carry extra uncertainty because of the boreal spring predictability barrier, so the strength and exact timing could still shift. The media labels a strong event a "super" or "Godzilla" El Niño, but the WMO does not use those terms and classifies events only as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong (WMO).

Where the forecast points for crops in 2026

The clearest signal for the season is heat. The WMO expects above-normal temperatures almost everywhere from June to August, which raises the risk of heat stress and speeds the onset of drought where rainfall also falls short. Rainfall signals vary by region, and regional climate outlook forums have started to flag them:

Greater Horn of Africa: Below-normal rainfall is likely across much of the northern Horn during the June to September rains, the critical window for the main season (WMO).
South Asia: A below-average monsoon is expected, with consequences for rice and other monsoon-dependent crops (WMO).
Central America and the Caribbean: Drier and warmer conditions threaten the sowing and early growth of maize and rice from Colombia through Central America and the Caribbean (JRC ASAP).
Western South America: Bolivia, Ecuador, and Peru are forecast to receive above-average rain, the opposite side of the same pattern (JRC ASAP).
Southern Africa: The 2025/2026 harvest is above average, but the next summer crop season carries a high risk of heat and drought stress as El Niño sets in (JRC ASAP).

Across the Sahel and parts of West Africa, the EU assessment also points to drier-than-average conditions in Senegal, Gambia, Guinea, and southern Chad, against an otherwise average outlook for the Gulf of Guinea (JRC ASAP).

Why food prices could climb this season

The weather is not the only pressure. The EU assessment links rising fuel and fertiliser prices to the war in Iran, with Cuba running out of diesel and fuel costs peaking across Bolivia, Peru, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua. Drought that cuts yields and an input squeeze that raises the cost of every hectare are arriving in the same season.

That combination matters for prices because the world depends on a short list of staple food crops for most of its calories. When a single climate pattern causes losses across several continents at once, there are fewer healthy harvests elsewhere to fill the gap, and demand for staples barely falls when prices rise. Higher-value cash crops such as coffee, sugar, and palm oil sit in some of the most exposed regions, which is why they often react first.

An analysis by Risilience chairman Andrew Coburn, published by Reuters, put possible price shocks at 10% to 50% across core commodities, with the most exposed crops, including rice, palm oil, sugar, and coffee, potentially rising 50% to 100% or more. The same analysis warns that government responses can amplify the move, as large rice exporters such as India, Vietnam, and Thailand have restricted shipments during past shortages to protect domestic supply. These are scenarios rather than forecasts, but they show how a moderate weather event can translate into a broad shopping-basket effect. Extreme weather is already one of the main drivers of acute food insecurity tracked by the FAO.

Heat compounds the risk for crops and livestock

Above-normal temperatures hit animals as directly as crops. Cattle, poultry, and pigs each have a comfort range, and once the air passes it, they spend energy on cooling instead of growth or milk. Dairy cows are especially sensitive: when the temperature-humidity index rises above about 68, feed intake and milk yield both fall, as set out in our guide to reducing heat stress in dairy cattle. The same dry spells that hurt crops also push up feed prices and shrink grazing, so the cost of keeping animals fed climbs as the heat rises.

What the 2026 El Niño could mean for 2027

El Niño's effect on global temperature is usually strongest in the second year, so the heaviest consequences of a 2026 event may land in 2027. The WMO decadal outlook gives an 86% chance that at least one year in 2026 to 2030 sets a new annual temperature record, and a 91% chance that at least one year passes 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial level, with El Niño conditions favored into the 2027-2028 window. Crop and price effects can persist into a second growing season as stocks rebuild and supply chains adjust. On the upside for some regions, El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, and forecasters are calling for a below-normal Atlantic season.

What farmers and food businesses can do now

El Niño is one of the few large climate signals that forecasters can flag months in advance, leaving room to act. A few steps reduce exposure this season:

Use the lead time: Check the latest WMO update and your national service before finalizing planting dates, and shift the calendar if a wet or dry signal is strong for your area.
Match the crop to the forecast: In drought-prone regions, drought-tolerant and short-cycle varieties lower the risk of total loss. Our overview of climate-resilient crops and breeding covers the traits to look for.
Manage water early: Efficient systems such as drip irrigation stretch a tight supply, and the water-wise techniques used across arid Africa are directly relevant where below-normal rains are forecast.
Plan for the risk: Tools such as crop insurance and forward contracts help absorb a volatile season, as discussed in our piece on agriculture and risk.
Protect livestock: Shade, ventilation, clean water, and adjusted feeding ease heat stress through the hottest months.

Larger buyers are already moving. The Reuters analysis points to Nestlé distributing a validated mix of drought-tolerant robusta coffee varieties to farming cooperatives, and to Unilever piloting regenerative practices across exposed supply chains in eleven countries, both aimed at steadier yields under stress.

The lead time is real, and a moderate event need not become a crisis. The binding risk this year is timing: drought arriving in several regions at once, on top of fuel and fertilizer costs that are already high, with the heaviest temperature effects likely to carry into 2027.