El Niño 2026 and crops region by region

On 12 November NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) kept its El Niño Advisory in place, with the Niño-3.4 index at +2.5 °C and sea surface temperature anomalies above 4 °C spreading farther west across the eastern equatorial Pacific. In its November discussion the CPC expects El Niño to strengthen further before it begins to weaken in early 2027, and gives a better than 79% chance that a strong to very strong event lasts through January to March 2027. When the event began in June, forecasts for crops and food prices pointed to drought risk in southern Africa, the Sahel, South and Southeast Asia and Central America. The November crop monitoring reports from FAO, GEOGLAM and national agencies confirm damage in India, Thailand and Central America, while harvests in the Sahel and southern Australia turned out better than forecast.

The big grain exporters brought in good crops, and according to the AMIS Market Monitor for November, international markets for wheat, maize, rice and soybeans remain relatively well supplied. So far the losses are concentrated where El Niño coincided with the northern hemisphere summer season: India, Southeast Asia, Central America and the north of East Africa. From November to March the risk moves to the southern hemisphere, starting with southern Africa, where maize planting has just begun.

How strong El Niño is in November 2026

On NOAA's traditional Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), August to October 2026 came in at +2.46 °C, the third highest three-month value since 1950. Only two seasons of the 2015/16 event were higher, with a peak of +2.59, and the 1982/83 (+2.14) and 1997/98 (+2.37) peaks have already been passed. On the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), which removes the general warming of the tropical oceans and which the CPC uses to define a "historic" event (+2.5 °C or more), the same season came in at +1.97 °C, below the peaks of 1982/83 (+2.40), 1997/98 (+2.28) and 2015/16 (+2.25). The values come from the CPC's ONI and RONI files.

On 12 November the CPC put the chance of a historic event at about 60% for October to December and November to January, down from 83% for October to December in its October discussion. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also under way and, according to the Crop Monitor for Early Warning for November, is forecast to last through December, although the weekly index eased to +0.69 °C on 25 October. A positive IOD usually adds to El Niño's drying effect in Australia and Indonesia and raises the chance of heavy short rains in the Horn of Africa.

India's monsoon ended at 87% of normal

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) recorded 759.4 mm of southwest monsoon rain from June to September 2026, or 87% of the long period average. That is the fourth lowest total since 2001 and the thirteenth lowest since 1901. The deficit was uneven: northwest India received 94.1% of normal and central India 97%, while the south peninsula received 76% and northeast India 74%. East and northeast India recorded 1,017.1 mm, the lowest since 1901. Seventeen of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, covering 42% of the country, had deficient rain, and the monsoon core zone, which holds most of India's rainfed farmland, received 779.9 mm, just below the lower limit of the normal range.

June brought only 65% of normal rain, July 101%, August 84% and September 92%. According to AMIS, the kharif maize harvest is progressing under mixed conditions because of the below-average monsoon, soybeans likewise because of long dry spells, and kharif rice is being harvested in the northern states and is still developing in the east and south.

Rice in Southeast Asia was hit by both drought and floods

In Thailand, according to the Crop Monitor, prolonged dry spells in July and an outbreak of rice blast affected wet-season rice, which is now between grain filling and harvest. AMIS adds that drought and recent flooding have reduced yields and that the sown area is smaller than last year. In Cambodia, Viet Nam and the Philippines, persistent rain and tropical storms in late September and early October caused flooding, and in northern Viet Nam waterlogging in the early growth stages reduced yields. AMIS reports that international rice prices rose in October while wheat, maize and soybean prices fell. Thailand and Viet Nam are two of the largest rice exporters, and the price gap between Thai and Vietnamese rice shifts from year to year.

FAO had flagged Cambodia in June. Its Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS), drawing on 41 years of satellite observations, estimated that 127,300 hectares of farmland and pasture were likely to be affected by drought. In a story published on 5 October, farmers in Siem Reap province describe scorched rice. The 2015/16 El Niño affected about 2.5 million people across 18 provinces and reduced rice production, and during the 1997/98 event the Cambodian government appealed for about 250,000 tonnes of rice.

Indonesia, south of the equator, runs on a different calendar. By late October the dry-season rice harvest had covered 3.74 million hectares with production of 19.61 million tonnes, lower than the previous season, and wet-season planting had just begun. FAO's GIEWS update of 29 June forecast below-average rain for Indonesia and Timor-Leste from June 2026 to January 2027, a window that covers the planting of the main 2027 crop, which usually starts in October. The same update listed Malaysia among the countries facing less rain from June to September; together with Indonesia, Malaysia produces most of the world's palm oil. In the Philippines, the government announced on 5 October the release of PHP 6.2 billion (about USD 100 million) under the UPLIFT programme for farmers affected by El Niño, part of a wider PHP 45 billion request, according to AMIS.

Australia has a good wheat crop in the south and a poor one in the north

In May the outlook for Australia pointed to below-average winter rain, but in its September crop report ABARES describes excellent conditions in South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales, with crops maturing 3 to 4 weeks early and well above average yield potential. Winter crop production is forecast at 61 million tonnes, 12% less than last year but 16% above the ten-year average and the fourth largest on record. Wheat is forecast at 29.9 million tonnes, down 17% mainly because the planted area fell by 11%, and barley at 16.4 million tonnes.

In northern New South Wales and most of Queensland the planted area fell sharply and yields are expected to be below average, while national summer crop production is forecast to fall by 25% to 3.4 million tonnes, 11% below the ten-year average. The wheat harvest is under way, and AMIS reports above-average yields expected in South Australia and Victoria and below-average yields in Queensland.

Southern Africa is planting maize with a 50 to 80% chance of below-normal rain

In southern Africa the main cropping season runs from October to April, and according to GIEWS El Niño is usually associated with below-average rain throughout it. The Crop Monitor for Early Warning reports that land preparation and planting for 2026/27 are under way and that models give a 50 to 80% chance of below-normal rain from November 2026 to March 2027 across most of the region. The same forecasts give a better than 70% chance of temperatures above the 90th percentile. In central and eastern areas consistent rain usually starts in November or December, and the 30-day forecasts point to an erratic onset. Drought risk rises when a negative Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) is also present; September observations and October model runs suggest one is likely, although the models disagree widely.

Maize is the region's staple and, according to GIEWS, its most vulnerable crop, because it is sensitive to water stress and needs more inputs. South Africa matters as a supplier to its neighbours. Irrigation covers a small share of cropland, and even in South Africa and Eswatini, where it is more common, past El Niño episodes brought steep falls in cereal production, in particular in 2016 and 2024. During the 2023/24 El Niño, according to FAO, the region suffered its worst drought in more than a century, leaving 61 million people in need of assistance. For 2026/27 FAO estimated a greater than 50% probability of agricultural drought across much of Namibia and Botswana, extending into Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa and parts of Mozambique and Madagascar.

Fertiliser adds to the pressure. According to GIEWS, nearly a third of South Africa's inorganic fertiliser passes through the Strait of Hormuz and local urea prices in May were about 90% higher than a year earlier, while the Crop Monitor notes concern over fuel and fertiliser prices especially in Malawi and Zimbabwe. On the other side, regional cereal supplies are ample, and in June GIEWS expected the bumper 2026 harvests, likely records in South Africa and Zambia, to partly cushion the impact in 2027. In wheat, now being harvested, dry weather from June to August cut yields in the Western Cape, while Zambia and Zimbabwe expect bumper crops thanks to irrigation.

East Africa is split between a dry north and a wet Horn

In the west and north of East Africa, in Sudan, South Sudan, western Ethiopia, Uganda's Karamoja region and Eritrea, FAO's regional office for Africa noted in July that El Niño years often bring below-average rain in the June to September main season. That is what happened this year: according to the Crop Monitor, main-season crops in the north are being harvested with below-average yields in many areas after prolonged rainfall deficits and high temperatures.

In the eastern Horn of Africa, which receives its rain from October to December, El Niño is associated with the opposite: more rain and flooding. Above-normal October to December rain is forecast for Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, central and southern South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania. In Somalia, Deyr season planting is under way, October rains were already above average in central areas, and the risk of widespread flooding is high. The 30-day forecasts, however, show warmer and drier or average conditions in northern and eastern East Africa, while longer-range models still show higher chances of above-normal rain from November to January.

The Sahel harvest turned out better than the June forecasts

In June FAO marked a belt of agricultural drought risk running from Senegal and southern Mauritania through Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria. In July its regional office for Africa added that in West and Central Africa El Niño's effects vary from area to area with no consistent regional signal. The main-season cereal harvest along the Sahel is now under way and, according to the November Crop Monitor, prospects are mostly favourable in areas not affected by conflict, despite localized dryness.

Drought in Central America coincided with maize and bean flowering

For the Dry Corridor, GIEWS forecast in June dry weather from June to November across Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua, covering the flowering and grain-filling stages of the main maize crop and the entire main bean season. According to the November Crop Monitor, extended dry spells, high temperatures and erratic rain affected the start of the second season (Segunda/Postrera), although rain in late September and October helped some areas. In Mexico, AMIS reports that hot and dry weather is affecting the spring-summer maize crop, the larger of the country's two seasons.

In the Caribbean, the dry weather GIEWS forecast from June to November put the second paddy crop at risk in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. In Haiti, where irrigation is minimal, recent rain has reduced deficits for the Été season maize and beans. During the 2015/16 El Niño, according to FAO, 3.5 million people in the Dry Corridor became food insecure, and in Haiti harvests fell by up to 70% and food insecurity doubled within months. For this year FAO gave a 70% probability of below-normal rain across the region.

South America has drought in the north and more rain in the south

In the north of the continent, GIEWS forecast dry weather for northern Colombia in the third quarter, extending to most of the country in the fourth, during planting and development of the main maize crop and the minor paddy crop. In Guyana and Venezuela the second-half dry spell covers the whole secondary paddy season and, in Venezuela, the main maize season. Paddy there is mostly irrigated, but prolonged dryness reduces the water available for irrigation.

In Brazil, GIEWS forecast dry weather from September to November across much of the country except the south, during planting of the 2027 minor-season maize crop, which accounts for about 20% of annual production. So far, according to AMIS, soybean planting is progressing under favourable conditions with a slightly larger area than last season, and in Argentina early-planted maize is also being sown under favourable conditions. In southeastern South America El Niño usually brings more rain, which GIEWS describes as generally favourable for crops but raising the risk of flooding and waterlogging. Off Peru, where El Niño's warm water affects the Peruvian anchoveta (Engraulis ringens), the raw material for fish meal, fish meal prices have risen during 2026.

More rain is forecast for wheat in Central Asia and Afghanistan

The Crop Monitor notes that many past El Niño events brought above-average rain to Afghanistan and parts of Central Asia, and above-average wheat production, mainly through a larger cropped area. For the 2026/27 winter wheat, now being planted, forecasts give higher chances of above-normal autumn and winter rain. Afghanistan, however, imports about 55% of its fertiliser through the Strait of Hormuz, and GIEWS notes that its reliance on imported food, fuel and fertiliser leaves it exposed to any supply disruption.

The big exporters had good harvests and markets remain supplied

According to the November AMIS Market Monitor, international wheat, maize and soybean prices fell in October while rice prices rose. Crop conditions in the main producing regions are good, the US maize harvest is progressing under favourable to exceptional conditions and wheat ending stocks are forecast at a record, but the strengthening El Niño is raising weather risks as the 2026/27 season progresses. The same issue summarises FAO's The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2026, which simulates a simultaneous weather shock across several producing regions that cuts global maize production by 10% and wheat and rice by 7%. Under cooperative behaviour, with trade kept open, the number of undernourished people rises by 162.5 million. If exporters limit cereal exports to 75% of pre-shock levels, the increase reaches 185.2 million, about 14% more, and food security deteriorates in 120 countries.

On 12 November FAO and AMIS held a policy seminar on whether El Niño will move markets, with presentations from the University of Maryland and FAO's rice economist and panellists from Grain Trade Australia, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) and Brazil's CONAB. The question it put was how far good harvests in some regions and existing stocks can offset losses elsewhere.

Region	Crops	What has happened by November	What comes next
India	Rice, maize, soybeans	Monsoon at 87% of normal, mixed harvest	End of the kharif harvest
Thailand, Cambodia, Viet Nam, Philippines	Wet-season rice	Drought and rice blast in Thailand, floods in the other three	Harvest with reduced yields
Indonesia, Timor-Leste	Rice, maize, palm oil	Lower dry-season rice output	Below-average rain forecast to January, during planting
Australia	Wheat, barley, summer crops	Good crop in the south, poor in Queensland	Summer crop production down 25%
Southern Africa	Maize, wheat	Planting under way after a bumper 2026 harvest	50 to 80% chance of below-normal rain to March
Northern East Africa	Main-season cereals	Below-average yields	Main season over
Horn of Africa	Second-season cereals, pasture	Heavy October rain in Somalia	Flood risk through December
Central America, Haiti	Maize, beans, rice	Dry start to the second season	Postrera harvest
Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana	Maize, rice	Dry weather forecast for the second half	Less irrigation water
Afghanistan, Central Asia	Winter wheat	Planting under way	Above-average rain likely

Sources: GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning, November 2026; AMIS Market Monitor, November 2026; FAO GIEWS, 29 June 2026; IMD, 30 September 2026; ABARES, September 2026

FAO has named 22 priority countries for early action

FAO and the World Food Programme (WFP) launched a joint anticipatory action appeal for June 2026 to March 2027, seeking USD 202 million to protect 8.8 million people in 22 countries. Ten already have operational anticipatory action frameworks for El Niño risks: El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Honduras, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Somalia, Uganda and Zimbabwe. In Cameroon, Colombia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Timor-Leste and Venezuela, FAO or WFP has a framework that can be scaled up, and in Afghanistan, Haiti, Kenya, Nigeria, South Sudan and Sudan readiness is being built now. The appeal also names countries at risk that it does not cover, among them Thailand, Viet Nam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar and Bangladesh.

Ahead of the 2023/24 El Niño, a regional effort in southern Africa directed nearly USD 31 million to more than two million people in seven countries, with seeds, livestock support and early warning, and FAO estimates that every dollar spent before a crisis avoids several dollars in humanitarian losses. FAO notes that many of this year's priority areas were also hit in 2015/16 and 2023/24, because El Niño's rainfall and drought patterns repeat and find the same weaknesses: rainfed farming, livestock that holds much of a household's wealth, and little capacity to recover.

Frequently asked questions

When will the 2026 El Niño peak? According to NOAA's CPC (12 November), the event will strengthen further before it begins to weaken in early 2027, while the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), as cited by FAO, expects a peak in late 2026 and early 2027. Effects on rainfall and crop production continue after the peak.

Is this the strongest El Niño on record? Not yet. On the ONI, August to October (+2.46 °C) is the third highest season since 1950, behind two seasons of 2015/16. On the RONI, which NOAA uses to define a historic event, it stood at +1.97 °C, below the 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16 events. The chance of passing +2.5 °C on the RONI is put at about 60%.

Which crops are most at risk until March? Maize in southern Africa, now being planted; rice and maize in Indonesia and Timor-Leste during wet-season planting; summer crops in northern Australia; and the second season of maize and beans in Central America. In the Horn of Africa the risk is flooding.

Does El Niño affect Europe? FAO's GIEWS update on El Niño's effects does not list southern Europe among the regions where El Niño consistently changes rainfall. For European farmers and consumers the link runs mainly through the prices of imported products such as rice, palm oil, coffee, cocoa and fish meal for feed. The dryness slowing wheat emergence in southern and central Europe this autumn is reported by AMIS without being attributed to El Niño.

Will grain prices rise? In October international wheat, maize and soybean prices fell and only rice prices rose. Wheat ending stocks are forecast at a record and the big exporters had good harvests. The price risk lies with crops still in the field in the southern hemisphere and with possible export restrictions, which FAO finds amplify any production shock.

What is a positive Indian Ocean Dipole? It is the phase in which the western Indian Ocean is warmer than the eastern part. When it coincides with El Niño it adds to drought in Australia and Indonesia and raises the chance of heavy rain in East Africa from October to December. This year it is forecast to last through December.

Important notes

Seasonal forecasts give probabilities, not certainties, and a strong El Niño raises the odds of its typical effects without guaranteeing them, as the CPC also notes. Sources do not always agree: the June forecast of drought in the Sahel had not materialised by November. The figures in this article reflect the dates of the reports cited and will change with the next editions, starting with the AMIS Market Monitor on 4 December. Decisions on planting, irrigation or input purchases in a specific area need the national meteorological service's forecasts and advice from a local agronomist.