Olive Oil Prices & Market Digest | Week 28, 2026
Olive oil prices eased gently during Week 28 in thin summer trade. Spain's official sector round table confirmed a smaller 2025/26 crop that has nevertheless kept the market comfortably supplied. Origin prices remain above year-ago levels despite recent declines, while expectations of a larger 2026/27 harvest continue to weigh on sentiment. Summer heat is now the market's main uncertainty.
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Spain’s olive oil market
Spain’s market stayed slow, with limited buying and selling interest and all grades easing gently. Consumption remains subdued and, with a large next crop expected, buyers show little urgency to commit. Market participants were also awaiting the June AICA figures to see stock levels and the supply-demand balance.
The week’s headline was the close of the 2025/26 campaign. According to the Ministry of Agriculture (MAPA), production has finished at around 1.298 million tonnes, 9% below the previous season, but 17% above the four-year average, a smaller crop that has still kept the market comfortably supplied.
Prices have followed a mild downward trend over the campaign yet remain 5.1% to 8.7% above the same dates last year, depending on the category.
At the sector round table on 7 July, operators drew an optimistic balance. Against opening stocks of 289,628 tonnes (October 2025), the domestic market has consolidated at about 505,000 tonnes and exports at about 1,040,000 tonnes, leaving an estimated inter-campaign carryover of around 260,000 tonnes, about 10% below last season, a comfortable but not excessive cushion into the new crop. End-of-May stocks stood at about 778,500 tonnes, slightly above the same point last year, confirming that supply is ample rather than tight.
MAPA reported that good spring conditions led to strong flowering and fruit set, and Spanish operators expect 2026/27 production of around 1.6 million tonnes; the first official estimates are due in early October.
The European Commission’s summer short-term outlook (6 July) likewise expects EU production above the current campaign’s average, with 2025/26 EU production around 2.1 million tonnes, though its figures predate the current heatwaves.
Weather has now become the market's biggest uncertainty. The first half of 2026 was Spain’s hottest on record, and AEMET puts the probability of a hot July–September quarter as very high. Extreme heat during fruit development can trigger fruit drop and limit oil accumulation, especially in the rain-fed groves that dominate Spanish producing regions.
If meaningful losses are confirmed, the recent price decline could reverse quickly; if the crop proves resilient, expectations of ample supply should keep values under pressure.
Current origin quotations:
● Extra Virgin Olive Oil (EVOO): €3.50-4.00/kg
● Virgin Olive Oil (VOO): €3.20-3.45/kg
● Lampante Olive Oil: €3.00-3.20/kg
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Greece’s olive oil market
Trading remained thin, with limited liquidity and scarce buying interest, resulting in wide bid-offer spreads. Prices stayed soft and little changed on the week, with the heat adding some water stress.
Current quotations:
● EVOO: €3.60-4.50/kg
Italy's olive oil market
Italy’s market continued to soften, further eroding its premium over other origins. Comfortable domestic stocks and cheaper imported oils weighed on quotations, with the lower end of the EVOO range slipping again. Low domestic output keeps Italy reliant on Spanish bulk.
Current quotations:
● EVOO: €4.40-5.50/kg
Tunisia's olive oil market
Roughly a fifth of Tunisia’s 2025/26 crop remains, leaving limited volumes for sale, and selling has slowed accordingly. Tunisian quotations are broadly stable this week; most buyers are in the EU. Growers expect a good new harvest, though not the record of last season.
Current quotations:
● EVOO: €3.60-4.00/kg
Portugal’s olive oil market
Portugal’s market remained largely inactive. With limited remaining stocks, producers are under little pressure to sell before the new harvest, and Portuguese EVOO continues to trade marginally below Spanish prices.
Current quotations:
● EVOO: €3.40-3.80/kg
EVOO cross-market snapshot
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Market outlook
The EU enters the new campaign from a favourable position. In its summer outlook, the Commission put EU exports at around 794,000 tonnes, keeping it the world’s leading exporter, with imports near 222,000 tonnes and consumption around 1.44 million tonnes, while flagging uncertainty from Middle East conflict, trade tensions and weather.
For now, expectations of another solid Spanish crop, comfortable carryover stocks and subdued demand continue to favour softer origin prices through the summer. The key variable remains the weather. With the first official production forecast not due until October, the market is likely to remain cautious. Confirmed heat damage could quickly reverse sentiment; if the crop continues to develop well, prices are expected to remain under gentle downward pressure.
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