Olive Oil Prices & Market Digest | Week 19, 2026
Olive oil markets across the Mediterranean remain quiet in early May, with Spain, Greece, and Italy locked in low-volume trading. Tunisia still holds substantial carryover stocks from a strong 2025/26 season, while maintaining export competitiveness. With the current production cycle concluded, focus has shifted to the 2026/27 crop, where a favourable flowering phase has supported optimism. The key market driver now is fruit set, which will determine next season's yield.
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Spain’s olive oil market
Spain’s olive oil market remains largely inactive, trading in a holding pattern amid tight supply and ongoing inventory management across the value chain. Buying interest is subdued, with operators gradually reducing inventories but limiting new purchases, weighing on liquidity.
Price movements have been minimal over the past month. Origin prices have stabilized at firm levels. Extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) is trading at €4.15–€4.80/kg, virgin olive oil (VOO) at €3.80–€4.00/kg, and lampante at around €3.40/kg, slightly lower than end-April levels.
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With the 2025/26 campaign concluded, attention is now on the 2026/27 season. A wet spring has supported strong vegetative growth and healthy flowering, with low pest pressure reinforcing a constructive agronomic outlook. The key variable is fruit set from May into June, which will determine yield potential for the coming crop.
A strong fruit set would ease upward price pressure later in the summer, while a heat event in the coming weeks would quickly tighten yield expectations and reintroduce weather risk premium into origin prices.
Greece’s olive oil market
Greece’s olive oil market remains quiet, with limited trading activity and a lack of active buyers. Domestic consumption is low, while external demand remains weak, keeping transaction volumes low.
Prices have shown little movement over the past month. Extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) is trading at €4.20–€5.20/kg, virgin olive oil (VOO) at €3.60–€4.05/kg, and lampante at €2.75–€2.95/kg.
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Flowering conditions are broadly favourable, supporting early expectations for a stable 2026/27 season.
Italy's olive oil market
Italy’s olive oil market remains largely inactive, with limited trading and a cautious wait-and-see stance among operators.
Inventory levels have improved compared with previous years but remain tight relative to demand. Imports from Spain and Tunisia continue to support export commitments and domestic consumption, though volumes remain constrained.
Italian EVOO continues to trade at a clear premium over Spanish and Greek origins, priced at €6.25–€7.00/kg. Prices have shown slight softening at the lower end in recent weeks. Domestic consumption remains subdued.
Flowering conditions are currently positive, supporting early optimism for the 2026/27 crop, although margin pressure is expected to persist.
Tunisia's olive oil market
Tunisia’s olive oil market is coming off a strong production season, with solid supply and significant carryover volumes still unsold.
Extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) is currently priced at €3.80–€4.10/kg. Despite persistent upward pressure, prices remain below Spanish and Italian levels, keeping Tunisia competitive in export markets.
Demand is mixed. Interest from Spain and Italy has weakened, while the United States remains an active buyer and a key outlet for Tunisian volumes. Domestic consumption has also declined amid elevated local prices.
Looking ahead, conditions for the next production cycle are broadly positive, with strong flowering and reservoir levels supporting expectations for a stable season.
EVOO origin price snapshot
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Market outlook
Market direction in the coming weeks will be determined primarily by agronomic developments, particularly how flowering progresses into fruit set across key producing regions. Spain remains the most influential origin for price formation, given its production weight.
Weather conditions during the fruit-set window are the primary risk factor. Sustained heat would likely reduce yield expectations and introduce a weather risk premium into origin prices ahead of harvest. Stable conditions, however, could reignite trading across the Mediterranean.
In the absence of weather disruption, prices are expected to remain broadly stable through May, with limited directional signals until clearer agronomic outcomes emerge.
Key takeaways:
- Supply: Tunisia holds solid carryover; Spain, Greece, and Italy remain relatively tight.
- Demand: Buyer activity is low and cautious, with destocking prevailing over forward purchasing.
- Prices: Stable in Spain and Greece, with slightly lower Spanish lampante, softer at the lower end of Italian EVOO, and firmer at the upper end of Tunisian EVOO.
- 2026/27 crop: Flowering conditions are broadly positive; fruit set is underway in some regions.
- Key risk: Weather volatility during fruit set, particularly heat stress.
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