Weather disruption, quality gaps, and tactical buying shape the start of 2026
The global olive oil market has entered 2026 under a familiar cloud of uncertainty. Erratic weather across key producing regions, widening quality gaps, and cautious buying behaviour from major bottlers are combining to create a volatile—but highly strategic—market environment.
As the new year begins, producers, traders, and buyers alike are navigating a balance between supply concerns and price opportunities, with many watching closely for signals that the market may be approaching a short-term price floor.
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Spain: Weather delays the harvest
Spain’s olive oil sector is setting the tone for global sentiment. Heavy rainfall, followed by a cold wave, has disrupted harvesting in major producing regions, such as Jaén and Córdoba. While producers are voicing concern, the issue appears to be one of timing and quality, rather than significant volume loss.
Field activity has slowed, pushing some of the harvest into January. Olives that fall to the ground or are exposed to freezing temperatures can still be processed, but typically yield lower-quality oil. Overall availability is expected to remain sufficient.
Current production estimates for Spain range between 1.25 and 1.35 million tonnes, a figure many on the production side view with caution. Until harvesting is completed—now delayed well beyond the usual December peak—actual volumes remain uncertain.
Waiting on the numbers: Data as the market catalyst
The market is now focused on official production data expected in mid-January, with definitive clarity unlikely before March. This prolonged uncertainty has fueled speculation.
Some market participants believe pessimistic messaging around the crop is being amplified to introduce hesitation and slow price declines. Others argue it reflects genuine concerns around quality degradation and delayed harvesting. Either way, the lack of confirmed data is keeping buyers cautious and sellers defensive.
A two-tiered price market
One of the defining features of early 2026 is a clear price split based on quality:
- Standard EVOO: €4.05–€4.15/kg ex-works, trending lower into February–March
- High-quality EVOO: ~€4.85–€4.90/kg, scarce and commanding a significant premium
After rising at the end of 2025, bulk prices have softened in early January. However, the decline is meeting resistance. Large bottlers—largely absent from the market last year—are beginning to re-enter at the €4.00 level, suggesting many view this range as close to the bottom.
Premium-quality oil remains in short supply, with deals in Italy reaching €4.90/kg. This widening spread highlights a structural imbalance this season: plenty of oil, but not enough good oil.
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Greece: Weak crop, high prices, minimal activity
Greece is experiencing a challenging season. A weak crop and elevated prices have severely reduced buying activity, making the market unusually quiet.
The shortage is so pronounced that even Italian bottlers traditionally focused on 100% Greek olive oil are shifting toward Spanish origin or blends to remain competitive. High-quality Greek oil is especially scarce and commands a premium.
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Portugal: A smaller role than expected
Portugal, expected to have been a more substantial contributor this season, has underperformed. Production volumes are lower than forecast, and prices are now aligned with mid-quality Spanish oil, reducing Portugal’s competitiveness in the market.
Tunisia: The price disruptor
Tunisia remains the season’s major price outlier. Bulk EVOO has reportedly traded as low as €3.10–€3.20/kg ex-works, with better-quality and organic oils still well below EU price levels.
- Current range: €3.10–€3.55/kg
This sharp price gap has triggered strong demand and heavy buying, especially from Italy, but the window may be closing. Reports suggest the Tunisian government is considering export controls or minimum pricing mechanisms to reduce the disparity with Spanish oil and retain more domestic value, which could quickly reshape Mediterranean trade flows.
Strategic pivots: The rise of the EU blend
To offset high costs, distributors are increasingly turning to EU blends. In Greece, companies are preparing blended oils combining high-acidity Greek olive oil with standard Spanish oil. This way, suppliers can offer more competitive pricing—particularly for industrial and foodservice buyers focused on cost rather than single-origin labelling, as price pressure intensifies.
Outlook: A volatile first quarter, clarity by March
Market consensus points to continued volatility through February. Prices are expected to oscillate—softening, rebounding as buyers step in, then easing again—until the Spanish harvest is fully recorded.
By early March, once definitive production figures are available, the market is expected to enter a more stable—or at least more predictable—phase.
Demand has not disappeared. Consumers are purchasing olive oil, and bottlers are restocking to meet near-term demand. As holiday-related logistics delays ease, trading activity is gradually picking up.
The olive oil market begins 2026 walking a narrow line—caught between weather-driven uncertainty, uneven quality, and price levels that are finally tempting buyers back in. The next two months will determine whether this uneasy balance holds or breaks decisively in one direction.
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