Spain secures volume despite decline in key Andalusian areas
The new outlook confirms a national harvest of 1.44 million tonnes, a figure of stability that contrasts with the 5.5% drop in Andalusia, due to sharp declines in Jaén and Córdoba.
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The stability factor: Certainty for the global market
Technical experts from the Andalusian Regional Government have presented the olive oil production forecast for the 2025/2026 campaign, with a key message of reassurance for the market. Despite the challenging weather conditions, Spain is set to deliver a total of 1,441,200 tonnes, a figure that signals a solid harvest for the sector and will help revive trade, providing security to both buyers and consumers.
This national volume will allow prices to remain sustained over time and reduce the uncertainty that has paralysed bulk quotations in recent weeks.
Regional contrast: Two realities in Andalusia's olive groves
The Andalusian regional figure, at 1,080,000 tonnes, represents a 5.5% fall compared to the previous campaign. This decline is attributed to the concentration of adverse weather conditions in traditional olive-growing provinces, resulting in two distinct realities on the ground.
The provinces forecasted to produce the least
The major producing strongholds are those suffering the sharpest setbacks this year:
- Jaén: The worst hit province. Its estimate of 475,000 t marks a 15% decline compared to last year (560,595 t).
- Córdoba: Down 7.5%, with a forecast of 269,100 t (versus 291,046 t in 2024/2025).
- Granada: The forecast stands at 117,200 t.
The provinces set to uphold the national volume
Spain's overall stability is achieved thanks to other provinces offsetting these declines with highly significant increases, far exceeding their performance last year.
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What does this mean for the olive oil we buy?
The figure of 1,441,200 tonnes is the key to peace of mind in the sector:
- For producers: It ensures there is a sufficient volume to maintain sales and keep olive mills operating.
- For buyers/packers: There is an adequate supply of raw material, allowing for more stable contract planning.
- For consumers: While lower output in premium areas (Jaén and Córdoba) may keep some firmness in the prices of the highest-quality oils, the stability of Spain's overall national volume is a positive sign, which, in the medium term, should ease the pressure on retail olive oil prices.
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