Focus on Oils | May 2026
The edible oils market showed mixed trends in May. While olive oil prices eased amid slower buying activity and improving crop expectations, rapeseed and sunflower oil remained supported by tightening old-crop supplies ahead of the next harvest. Meanwhile, avocado oil continued to benefit from comfortable fruit availability and growing production. Across the sector, market participants increasingly shifted their focus toward crop development, weather conditions and supply prospects for the upcoming season.
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Olive oil market
The olive oil market in May was marked by largely steady prices and declining inventories, albeit with slower demand and little trading.
The market is focused on the development of the 2026/27 crop, making summer weather conditions across key Mediterranean-producing regions, particularly Spain, the main factor influencing price direction over the coming months.
Following a correction to initially published figures, Spain's May AICA data confirmed another month of stock drawdowns. Olive oil production totalled just 1,917 tonnes during the month, as expected at this stage of the campaign, bringing cumulative production for the 2025/26 season to 1,297,907 tonnes, approximately 8.3% below the previous campaign's 1,415,767 tonnes.
Total Spanish olive oil stocks stood at 774,987 tonnes at the end of May, down 10.2% from 863,339 tonnes a month earlier. They were divided as follows:
- Olive mills: 506,972 tonnes (-15.5% month-on-month)
- Bottlers and refiners: 261,498 tonnes (+2.8%)
- Patrimonio Comunal Olivarero: 6,517 tonnes (-25.5%)
Total market outputs were 90,161 tonnes in May, down from 94,527 tonnes in April. While demand has softened, many buyers remain reluctant to build positions until clearer signals emerge regarding the 2026/27 harvest.
Italian EVOO prices eased to below €7/kg during May. Spain's price eased slightly to below €4.50/kg, and Greece as well, to below €4.80/kg. Meanwhile, Tunisia and Portugal continued offering more competitive pricing.
Water reserves across southern Spain remain solid, supporting expectations for a healthier 2026/27 crop. However, heatwaves during the critical summer period remain the market's primary concern. For now, increasingly favourable crop expectations are limiting upside price movement.
Rapeseed oil
Rapeseed oil was one of the few major vegetable oils to strengthen during May. The FAO attributed the increase largely to tightening supplies in Europe as the 2025/26 season reaches its end. The next harvest will commence in July and August, and old-crop availability will be constrained until then, leading to higher rapeseed oil prices. Strong biodiesel demand is encouraging processors to keep buying, which is also supporting prices.
Longer term, global rapeseed supply prospects have improved thanks to expanded planting area across the EU, strong production expected in Canada, rising exports from Australia, and continued growth in Russian output.
Harvest weather across Europe will be the dominant price factor over the coming months.
Sunflower oil
Sunflower oil maintained high prices in May, supported by tight supplies in the Black Sea region, particularly Ukraine, where inventories have been steadily declining ahead of the next harvest.
Limited old-crop availability, reduced exportable supplies and weather-related delays affecting the establishment of the 2026/27 crop have all contributed to the market's strength.
At the same time, demand from food manufacturers has remained steady, but the tighter supply has narrowed sunflower oil's traditional price discount to competing vegetable oils, making it less attractive as a lower-cost alternative for processors and food manufacturers.
Looking ahead, the market remains highly dependent on weather conditions across Ukraine, Russia and the EU.
Avocado oil
Unlike the other oils, avocado oil is not tied to a specific oilseed harvest window or commodity futures markets. Instead, pricing depends on fruit availability, processing margins, logistics costs and consumer demand.
Supply was strong during May. Mexico, the world's largest avocado producer, continues year-round Hass avocado production. The USDA projects the country's production to increase by approximately 3% in 2026, while exports are expected to rise by around 7%.
This is easing pressure for processors, and oil pricing remained stable to slightly softer during May. However, elevated freight and insurance costs are affecting its global trade. Logistics is n the primary source of upward pressure, no availability right now.
The main variables to watch are orchard conditions in Mexico and Peru, global shipping costs, and premium consumer demand trends in high-demand regions like North America and Europe.
Market outlook
The edible oils market enters the summer months with weather as the primary driver of sentiment. Across olive, rapeseed and sunflower oil markets, stocks are declining, and attention is focused on the size and quality of the next harvests.
In the olive oil sector, prices eased during May amid slower demand and limited trading activity. Improved water availability and favourable crop development are supporting expectations for a strong 2026/27 season, encouraging many buyers to delay purchases while awaiting clearer signals. Rapeseed oil continues to be supported by seasonal tightness ahead of the European harvest, while sunflower oil remains highly dependent on weather conditions and uncertainty across the Black Sea region. Meanwhile, avocado oil supply remains comfortable, with production and exports growing.
Looking ahead, market participants will be closely monitoring developments in summer weather across producing regions to know the direction of the next crop.
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