AICA data | March 2026
The latest figures from the Agencia de Información y Control Alimentarios (AICA) for March 2026 offer a clear view of the Spanish olive oil market as the 2025–2026 campaign enters its final phase. Production has come in below initial expectations, while demand remains firm. As a result, stock levels are tightening, increasing pressure on supply ahead of the next harvest.
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Production underperforms initial expectations
Spain produced 81,852 tonnes of olive oil in March, below February’s 141,135 tonnes, as the harvest season comes to an end.
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This brings the total cumulative production for the 2025–2026 season to:
● 1,277,889 tonnes
This figure falls almost 100,000 tonnes (7%) below the initial official estimate of 1,371,938 tonnes, confirming a weaker-than-expected harvest. According to Spain’s Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentación (MAPA), final production is now expected to reach around 1.29 million tonnes, down 9% compared to the previous season.
The shortfall is largely attributed to adverse weather conditions during the main harvest period. Persistent rainfall and strong winds between December and February disrupted harvesting, causing delays and, in some areas, damage to the fruit. These conditions ultimately weighed on yields.
Mill stocks decline as market absorbs supply
Total olive oil stocks at the end of March stood at 940,303 tonnes, a decrease of 36,845 tonnes compared to February levels. The distribution by sector is as follows:
● Olive mills: 692,616 tonnes (–46,339 tonnes from February)
● Bottlers: 238,094 tonnes (+10,671 tonnes from February)
● Olive-growing foundation: 9,593 tonnes (+1,502 tonnes from February)
The decline in stocks at the mill level indicates strong outflows into the market, while the increase at the bottler level suggests continued packaging activity and steady demand.
High output levels signal steady demand
Total market outputs in March reached:
● 118,982 tonnes
This is an increase of 3,942 tonnes compared to February and confirms a high pace of commercialization.
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While demand remains strong, this level of output is accelerating the reduction in available stocks. Concerns are growing over whether stocks will be sufficient to bridge the gap until the next harvest.
Market outlook
The March 2026 AICA data points to a market moving towards low end-of-season stock levels. With production below expectations and demand holding firm, the balance of the campaign will depend heavily on the pace of commercialization in the coming months. Current estimates suggest that final stocks could fall below those of the previous season.
For market participants, this sets up a more constrained supply environment heading into the second half of the year. Market implications include potential price pressure as availability tightens and increased sensitivity to demand changes. Attention is already shifting to early forecasts for the 2026–2027 harvest, which will be critical in shaping price direction and supply expectations.
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