Focus on Oils | February 2026
The February 2026 edible oils market shows early signs of stabilization in Spain’s olive oil sector, while global trends in sunflower and rapeseed oils remain unsettled. This report highlights key production, stock, and market developments across Spain, Greece, Italy, Tunisia, and major seed oils, offering essential insights for traders, producers, and buyers.
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Spain’s olive oil market: February AICA data analysis
The latest figures from Spain’s Agencia de Información y Control Alimentarios (AICA) offer a clearer picture of the 2025/26 olive oil campaign as it enters its final phase.
February olive oil production
- February production: 141,135 tonnes
- Cumulative seasonal production: 1,193,767 tonnes
Spain produced 141,135 tonnes of olive oil in February, lower than expected, bringing total production for the 2025/26 season close to 1.2 million tonnes. This reflects the expected seasonal slowdown after January’s higher milling activity of 321,040 tonnes.
February’s volumes show that mills recovered some of the production lost during the heavy rains and strong winds in December and January. Despite this, production remains below early-season forecasts of 1.37 million tonnes. With only modest output expected in the remaining months, Spain’s 2025/26 harvest is now projected to finish near 1.3 million tonnes.
February olive oil outputs
- February outputs: 115,040 tonnes
Market activity strengthened in February, with total outputs reaching 115,040 tonnes, higher than January’s 97,130 tonnes. The increase signals solid demand, with both domestic consumption and exports remaining active. High output levels are expected to continue through spring and early summer, supporting a steady flow of oil into the market.
February olive oil stocks
- Total stocks: 974,469 tonnes
Stock distribution:
- Producers: 738,955 tonnes
- Bottlers: 227,423
- Olive-Growing Foundation: 8,091
At the end of February, total olive oil stocks reached 974,469 tonnes, up 30,781 tonnes from January. Around three-quarters of inventories remain with producers, indicating that a large share of the campaign’s oil has yet to fully enter commercial distribution channels, leaving room for further market transactions in the coming months.
Current olive oil prices
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Market implications for the coming months
Key takeaways for the olive oil market:
- Smaller-than-expected crop: The 2025/26 harvest is likely to finish close to 1.3 million tonnes, below early forecasts.
- Demand remains resilient: February outputs above 115,000 tonnes indicate continued high domestic consumption and export activity.
- Stocks remain tight: Inventories are sufficient but not excessive heading into the rest of the season.
- Producer-held stocks dominate: With most oil still held by mills and cooperatives, producer selling decisions will influence price direction in the coming months.
- Market balance emerging: Supply is sufficient to avoid shortages, but not large enough to create significant surpluses.
Heavy rains increase water reserves
Recent rainfall across Spain has significantly improved national water reserves, which now stand at 82.6% capacity, compared with 60.9% at the same time last year. In Andalucía, reservoirs have reached 84.49% capacity, nearly double the long-term average.
While the rains caused harvest delays and lower yields in the current campaign, they significantly improve the outlook for the 2026/27 olive oil crop if favourable conditions continue during the spring flowering period.
Greece's olive oil market
Market activity in Greece remains minimal, as producers hold back supply. The 2025/26 harvest was small, and available stocks must last until the next crop, so only limited volumes are being sold. Prices are high, reflecting tight domestic supply and reports of Spanish crop losses. Buyers, including Italy, are purchasing only what is needed, keeping market transactions low.
In the short term, prices may rise slightly, but from July onwards, buyers are expected to manage stocks carefully, purchasing the minimum until the new harvest.
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Italy's olive oil market
Market activity in Italy remains low, with producers reluctant to sell. Prices are firm, and modest increases are possible in the coming weeks, with current EVOO prices around €6.40–7.00/kg.
Tunisia's olive oil market
Tunisian olive oil has become more expensive, prompting some Italian and Spanish buyers to scale back orders. Despite the price increases, Tunisia continues to sell significant volumes, particularly to the United States, with current EVOO prices around €3.60–4.00/kg.
EVOO price comparison by country
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Vegetable & seed oils
Avocado oil
Avocado oil supply remains constrained, with production concentrated in Mexico, Peru, and Chile. Rising demand in the US and Europe for health and premium food uses continues to support prices. Market volumes are small compared with those of major oils, but growth in the premium segment is steady.
Sunflower oil
The sunflower oil market remains tight as the ongoing Ukraine–Russia conflict continues to disrupt exports from the Black Sea region. Availability is limited, and prices have risen in recent weeks, with significant variation across markets. Shipments from South America have provided some relief, but volumes remain insufficient to fully offset supply disruptions. At the same time, there is strong demand from the food service sector and the biofuel industry.
Ex-works bulk prices:
- Netherlands: €1,395/MT
- Portugal: €1,405/MT
- Bulgaria: €1,350/MT
- North Macedonia: €1,407/MT
- Bulgaria: €1,360/MT
Market sentiment is expected to remain bullish in the near term, with limited near-term downside risk over the coming months.
Rapeseed oil
Rapeseed oil has appreciated recently, mainly due to uncertainty and rising energy costs. The market remains cautious. Suppliers often start with opportunistic offers and then negotiate down with firm bids, creating a volatile market where prices can change multiple times during the day. Availability is expected to remain sufficient until the new crop, but the psychological impact of the war continues to significantly affect market sentiment, offers, and prices.
Ex-works bulk prices:
- Germany: €1,254–1,277/MT
- Austria & Czech Republic: €1,300/MT
- Portugal: €1,301/MT
Prices are expected to trend lower into Q3 2026, with no immediate factors likely to drive a significant rebound.
Industry outlook
In the global edible oils market, key factors include:
- Supply constraints in sunflower oil due to Black Sea disruptions
- Tight Spanish olive oil supply and high producer-held stocks
- Rapseed oil appreciation and market volatility
- Rising transport and value chain costs
- Geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict, impacting global trade
For traders, producers, and buyers, strategic stock management and careful monitoring of new crop developments are critical.
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