Olive Oil Prices & Market Digest | Week 5, 2026
The Mediterranean olive oil market entered the final week of January cautiously, as buyers capped prices following heavy rains in Spain, which have disrupted harvesting and raised uncertainty about overall supply. Trade continues, and widening quality gaps in extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) are shaping market dynamics.
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Spain’s olive oil market
The Spanish market is active, though buyers are pushing for lower prices amid recent rains that have halted harvesting. Deals that traded last week at €4.60/kg delivered to Italy are now facing resistance, with some bids dropping to €4.40/kg.
Larger, quality-focused bottlers continue to pay premiums, but most buyers aim to secure coverage at lower levels rather than chase higher prices. The prevailing view is that the Spanish crop, while not exceptional, will be sufficient to meet demand.
EVOO is slightly more expensive than weeks prior, while VOO and lampante prices are dropping. Trading is steady, particularly in regions such as Córdoba, where private mills are moving harvest volumes ahead of the spring season.
An expert’s insights: Meet Francisco Gálvez Hidalgo
Spain’s olive oil sector is facing heavy rains and strong winds, disrupting harvesting and raising uncertainty about overall production. Francisco Gálvez Hidalgo, director of the CIMA project—an agri-food sustainability initiative launched by Alltech Crop Science covering 15,000 hectares of olive fields across Spain—warns that production may fall short of expectations. He also oversees Alltech’s olive and almond projects across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
“About 40% of the harvest remains uncollected, and much of it likely won’t be picked in time,” Gálvez says. “Two more weeks of rain with wind gusts up to 100 kph are expected. Ripe olives are falling to the ground, and waterlogged soil is causing them to rot.”
Only about 30% of Jaén’s harvest—nearly half of Spain’s production—has been completed, suggesting total production could be roughly 25% below estimates. Delays in pruning due to rain may boost the 2026–2027 crop but will compromise the 2027–2028 crop, as excessive growth will require severe pruning next year.
Gálvez projects the crop at 1,250,000 tons and expects prices to rise: “Currently, olive oil is around €4.50–€4.60 per kilo. I expect it could go above €5. The first oils of next season will be very expensive, before prices drop and rise again in 2027–2028 when production falls.”
Despite these challenges, demand remains strong. “Sales are robust, showing that global consumption continues to grow,” he notes. Harvesting continues in Jaén and the Subbética region, while farmers monitor tree nutrition to maximise yields. Reservoirs are currently at 60%, nearly 10 points above average, easing future water concerns.
Greece’s olive oil market
The Greek market is slow and less competitive internationally. High-quality EVOO is scarce, making it difficult for Greece to match Spanish and Tunisian prices and quality. Trade is driven mainly by domestic activity, though some volumes continue to move to Italy, particularly higher-acidity grades.
Italy’s olive oil market
Italian buyers, like their Spanish counterparts, are imposing price caps. Buyers are negotiating selectively, balancing domestic demand against competitively priced Spanish oil. Trading is steady, while premium EVOO segments continue to attract buyers willing to pay for top-tier quality.
- Current EVOO pricing: €6.40-7.20/kg
Portugal’s olive oil market
The Portuguese market has largely paused, with producers having sold roughly half of their production. With much of the harvest already offloaded, sellers face no immediate pressure, supporting a steady market tone.
Tunisia’s olive oil market
Tunisia is seeing strong export activity, with Italian and Spanish buyers actively purchasing available volumes.
- Current EVOO pricing: €3.30-€3.60/kg.
The widening EVOO quality gap
A key theme this week is the broad range of quality in EVOO. Even oils meeting legal standards can vary significantly in stability, sensory profile, and suitability for different markets. Market leaders warn that the “extra virgin” label is becoming increasingly subjective as stocks age.
For buyers, this means:
- Closely examining lab results and sensory tests
- Choosing oils based on end-market requirements (retail, horeca, industrial)
- Adjusting pricing within the EVOO category according to quality
As margins tighten and buyers resist headline prices, understanding and managing these quality differences is becoming essential for both pricing and market allocation.
Market outlook
Over the next two to three months, lower-grade oils are expected to soften or remain flat, with refined and Lampante likely easing gradually, assuming no unexpected weather changes. Trade remains active, but negotiations are firmer, and quality differentiation is increasingly important.
Key watchpoints for the coming weeks:
- Further rainfall and crop updates from Spain
- Crusher activity and Lampante availability
- Whether buyer resistance leads to an actual demand slowdown or just tougher negotiations
- Quality disputes as more borderline EVOO enters the market
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