Focus on Oils | Week 7, 2026
Global edible oils are in flux. Spanish olive oil prices are climbing as adverse weather disrupts harvesting, Morocco reports a strong rebound in production, and avocado oil continues rising as a premium health-oriented alternative.
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Olive oil: Spain faces supply squeeze
The Spanish olive oil market is entering a volatile phase amid persistent heavy rains. Harvesting has been severely disrupted, reducing short-term availability of high-quality extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) and creating uncertainty over final production figures.
“Suppliers and buyers have the same view of the market — both see prices going up,” said Francesco Di Monaco, Italian olive oil taster and trader. “That makes deals difficult, because sellers want higher prices while buyers are trying to secure volumes as cheaply as possible.”
Many bottlers and packers sold at lower prices earlier in the season, anticipating a market softening that never materialised. Instead, adverse weather and tightening supply have flipped dynamics:
- Trade activity remains strong, but offer activity is slowing.
- Top-quality EVOO is scarce, driving prices higher.
- Lower-grade lampante and refined oils are more abundant, but quality will dictate their market value.
Short-term outlook: With supply tight and demand steady or rising, price corrections are unlikely in the coming weeks.
January AICA data: Tight stocks and delayed production
New figures from the Agencia de Información y Control Alimentarios (AICA) highlight Spain’s challenging supply picture.
Stock figures for January
- Total stocks: 943,688 tonnes (+223,210 t vs. December)
- Producers: 726,966 t (+173,052 t)
- Bottlers: 209,231 t (+46,896 t)
- Olive-Growing Foundation: 7,492 t (+3,262 t)
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Production trends
- January production: 321,040 tonnes (-55.6% vs December)
- Cumulative 2025–2026 production: 1,044,116 tonnes
- Season forecast: originally 1.4–1.44 million t
December and January, the most critical harvest months, were largely lost to adverse weather. February and March remain, but these are usually low-yielding months. The harvest is delayed, making it unlikely that the season target will be met.
Market flow & outputs
- Total outputs – January: 97,130 t
- Producer outputs: 144,727 t
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Rains boost water reserves in Spain
Recent rains have brought Spain’s water reserves to healthy levels: 43,341 cubic hectometres, at 77.34% capacity, well above the 10‑year average of 53.6%. While this supports long‑term grove health, continuous heavy rainfall does little to restore current season production.
Morocco: Production rebounds in Fès
In the olive groves surrounding Fès, this year’s harvest tells a story of recovery — and new pressures.
At Noor Fès, a 300-hectare estate, General Manager Ghizlane Tazi describes the campaign as both challenging and encouraging.
“The weather has not been favourable for the harvest, as it is difficult to harvest in rainy conditions,” Tazi says. Typically, the estate’s harvest is concentrated into four to six weeks. “This year, it lasted around eight to ten weeks.”
Rain slowed operations and complicated picking, but ultimately supported yields. “This year’s rainfall allowed us to achieve a better harvest in terms of both volume and yield,” she explains, “despite the challenges we had to face during harvest.”
Production is up 40% compared with last year, which Tazi describes as “a very bad year in terms of volume, because of water scarcity and excess heat.” Output is also about 25% higher than a normal year, underscoring the scale of the rebound.
If weather shaped the trees’ performance, labour defined the harvest’s difficulty.
“We harvest exclusively by hand, normally relying on 400 to 500 pickers per day,” Tazi says. “This year, labour was far less available and significantly more expensive.”
Quality has remained strong. Tazi describes the oil as showing “very fresh green fruitiness, like fresh cut grass,” with almond, apple and banana aromas, alongside vegetal notes of tomato plant. “In the mouth, it is sweet and balanced, harmonious and complex,” she adds.
Market conditions, however, are moving in the opposite direction. “In Morocco, prices have dropped significantly,” Tazi says, noting downward pressure on bulk export prices as volumes recover.
Noor Fès focuses on branded, packaged exports primarily to the United States, where demand is rising. “We are seeing increasing demand,” she says.
For Moroccan olive oil producers in premium export segments, stronger yields are arriving alongside higher labour costs and softer domestic prices — a reminder that recovery in the groves does not always translate into easier market conditions.
Olive oil price comparison by country
Across major producing countries, olive oil prices remain volatile, reflecting regional weather events, stock availability, and market dynamics:
Avocado oil: Premium alternative gains ground
While olive oil dominates culinary markets, avocado oil is rapidly gaining traction in food, beverage, and personal care sectors.
Why buyers are turning to avocado oil
- Health appeal: Extra virgin avocado oil is rich in monounsaturated fats, antioxidants, and vitamins, with a neutral flavour and high smoke point.
- Culinary versatility: Used in premium recipes, packaged foods, and cooking applications.
- Beyond the kitchen: Popular in cosmetics and personal care for moisturising and antioxidant properties.
Regional market dynamics
- North America: Largest market, strong retail penetration, premium pricing.
- Europe: Rapid adoption due to Mediterranean-style diets and health trends.
- Asia-Pacific: Fastest-growing region, driven by culinary and beauty sectors.
Challenges to growth
- Mexico produces over one-third of global avocados.
- Trees require specific climate conditions; supply is weather-sensitive.
- Higher production costs keep retail prices above common seed oils.
Outlook: Avocado oil is poised for stable growth. Producers and brands that combine quality, traceability, and competitive pricing will benefit most.
Industry outlook
Spanish olive oil faces tight supply and rising prices due to weather‑related disruptions, while Morocco’s rebound highlights the uneven impact of climate across producing regions. Premium specialty oils, particularly avocado oil, continue to grow steadily, driven by health trends and industrial demand.
Looking ahead, olive oil prices will likely remain firm in the short term; quality and availability will shape market dynamics through the end of the season, while avocado and other niche oils offer diversification and stable growth amid volatility in traditional oils.
Buyers, traders, and producers should expect tight supply in core markets, regional price swings, and continued premiumization across edible and specialty oils.
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