Key takeaways
What the science shows
- February 2026 delivered record-high rainfall across the Iberian Peninsula, France, the British Isles, the Balkans, Greece, Turkey, and parts of Russia. Most of Europe now sits above average on soil moisture as of March 1st.
- Spring temperatures are projected to run +0.75°C above normal in western Europe, rising to +1.5°C in the east and southeast. Frost days drop, warm days climb.
- Summer (June through August) keeps the warmth and adds a drying tilt. July and August run weakly dry across much of Europe, with precipitation anomalies reaching –10% in the southeast.
- The northeast is the clear exception. A drier-than-normal February leaves the region with mixed-to-negative soil moisture heading into spring.
What farmers should do
- Protect soil structure. Working fields at or above field capacity is the most expensive mistake of the season. Wait for fields to drain before entering.
- Shift from calendar-based to stage-based management. Crop development will run one to three weeks ahead of historical benchmarks. Nitrogen, herbicides, and growth regulators should be pegged to growth stage, not dates.
- Start disease scouting earlier, especially in regions that were wet through February. Mild temperatures on saturated soils are what foliar pathogens need to rebuild.
- Plan for the drier summer now. Conserve reserves in drier regions, protect soil structure in wetter ones, and prepare irrigation readiness earlier than usual.
What does the latest outlook indicate for spring 2026?
For much of Europe, February continued what January started. Heavy rain kept falling, soil profiles filled up, and drought signals gave ground. The latest seasonal outlook from Augures Project confirms what the maps now show. Europe's continental mean temperature sat 0.10°C below the 1991–2020 average in February. That sounds mild in aggregate, but it hides a sharp regional split. Southern and southwestern Europe ran warm, with record-high temperature anomalies in parts of Turkey, southern Europe, and the Mediterranean. Northeastern Europe stayed significantly below normal.
This analysis is based on seasonal climate data from the Augures project. The full climate outlook, including regional forecasts and interactive maps, is available in the Seasonal Climate Outlook for Europe – March 2026.
What most farmers will notice first, though, is the rainfall. February was wetter than normal across most of the continent. Record-high positive anomalies showed up on the Iberian Peninsula, in France, the British Isles, the Balkans, Greece, Turkey, and parts of Russia. Scandinavia and parts of the northeast were the main exceptions.
The practical consequence shows up in the soil moisture field. As of March 1st, most of Europe sits above average. Central Europe (northeastern France, Benelux) gained ground through February. Only the southern Mediterranean, mainly Italy and Greece, lost a little relative to January.
The spring forecast (March through May) holds to the warm signal that has been consistent for months. Temperatures are projected at +0.75°C above normal in western Europe, rising to +1.5°C in the east and southeast. Precipitation is expected to run weakly positive for most of Europe (up to +10%), with slightly drier patches in the southwest. Frost days in April should drop by up to three across much of mainland Europe, and warm days should climb by one to three per month. Southern Europe sees the biggest warm-day jump through late spring and into summer.
The summer outlook (June through August) keeps the warmth and adds a drying tilt. July and August turn weakly dry for much of Europe, with precipitation anomalies reaching –10% in the southeast. Soil moisture is projected to stay positive in western and central Europe into summer. Eastern Europe carries a negative signal, and the northeast sits in mixed territory.
Why wet soils and a warm forecast rewrite spring's management questions
Two months ago, European soil moisture was patchy and leaning negative across most of the regions that matter for spring planting. It has now shifted. For the first time in a long while, most of the continent enters spring with full or near-full root-zone reserves. That is a genuine agronomic asset. It extends the window before in-season rainfall becomes the limiting factor, and it supports heavier early growth once temperatures rise.
The catch is that wet soils demand patience. Working fields at or above field capacity is the most expensive mistake available this spring. Compaction from early traffic persists through the season and limits root exploration. Under a warm forecast that pulls crop development forward, any limit on root function shows up later as lost yield.
Mild temperatures on saturated soil surfaces are also the conditions fungal pathogens need to rebuild. Denitrification losses accelerate on waterlogged ground. Scouting earlier, not on calendar dates, is the direct response.
Then there is the speed problem. With temperatures well above normal, growing degree days will accumulate faster than usual through March and April. Tillering, stem elongation, and flowering all compress. For winter cereals, the risk is that flowering arrives in early June under a drying summer forecast. That shortens grain fill and puts reserves under pressure exactly when they are needed most. Operations tied to calendar dates will lag the crop. Operations tied to growth stage will not.
Where the risks and opportunities land by region
Iberian Peninsula and western Mediterranean
The drought signal that dominated outlooks through most of 2025 has, at least for now, reversed. Record February rainfall on top of a wet January has lifted soil moisture across Iberia and the western Mediterranean into positive territory. Spain, Portugal, and southern France have received the recharge their rainfed systems needed.
The question is what that recharge actually reaches. Olive groves, vineyards, and citrus orchards whose roots spent months drawing on depleted reserves will not instantly recover full uptake capacity. Canopy growth responds quickly to warmth and surface moisture. Root function recovers more slowly.
Where the forecast shows slightly negative precipitation for the southwest into late spring, the February surplus may need to stretch further than usual. Irrigation readiness should assume deeper reserves are still rebuilding, even if topsoil looks fine.
Southeastern Europe and the Balkans
Southeastern Europe remains the wettest part of the outlook. Positive soil moisture anomalies from February's rain sit on top of already adequate reserves. The Balkans, Greece, and Turkey are among the regions posting record-high February precipitation.
The immediate question is field access. Saturated soils and heavy equipment do not mix, and the penalty for entering too early shows up as compaction that lasts all season. The warm spring will speed up surface drying. That can produce a deceptive crust over subsoil that is still at or above field capacity.
For maize, sunflower, and sugar beet, planting should be driven by soil moisture probes rather than calendar dates. Winter wheat established in autumn is worth scouting for yellowing and poor tillering. Both point to root-zone oxygen that has been limited long enough to cost nitrogen through denitrification.
The summer outlook adds a second consideration. Southeastern Europe is where the drying signal is strongest for July (–10% precipitation anomaly). Full moisture reserves now will matter later. Management that protects soil structure through spring pays back in August, when demand rises and supply tightens.
Northeastern Europe
The northeast is the clearest exception to the wet-February picture. Scandinavia and parts of the northeast were drier than normal. The soil moisture signal for the region runs mixed to negative through spring and into summer. February temperatures also stayed well below the European mean here.
The warm spring forecast is therefore doing different work in this region. Snow cover will melt earlier. The growing season will start sooner than usual. Early crop demand will draw on moisture reserves that are less comfortable than the western European picture suggests.
For autumn-sown crops, post-thaw inspections should happen before nitrogen goes on. Frost-thaw cycles through the transition weeks can lift shallow-rooted plants and disrupt surface drainage. Both are worth catching before input decisions are made.
Spring-sown crops in this region may benefit from good seedbed structure if frost penetration was adequate. Seeding depth and seed-to-soil contact matter more than usual when topsoil moisture is limited from day one.
Central and western Europe
Germany, France, Benelux, and the UK got a wetter-than-normal February after a mixed winter. Soil moisture gained meaningfully in central Europe over the past month. The spring forecast points to weakly positive precipitation and temperatures +0.75°C above normal.
Conditions set up reasonably well for spring fieldwork. The traffic question still needs handling with care. Where soils are near field capacity, waiting a few days for fields to drain is cheaper than the compaction that follows an early pass.
The warm signal means crop development will run one to three weeks ahead of historical benchmarks. Nitrogen top-dressing, herbicide windows, and growth regulator applications should all be pegged to crop stage rather than calendar dates. Conservation tillage is worth maintaining through spring. Residue cover and intact pore space are what keep moisture available as summer brings drier conditions.
What to watch in specific cropping systems
Winter wheat, barley, and oilseed rape are in reasonable position across most of Europe. Moisture is not the primary constraint for once. The risk is that a warm spring compresses the reproductive window and pushes flowering and grain fill toward a drying summer. Nitrogen decisions should follow actual growth stage, which will run ahead of schedule. Disease scouting should start earlier than usual. Mild temperatures on saturated soil surfaces are exactly the conditions Septoria tritici blotch and other foliar pathogens need to rebuild.
Perennial crops (vineyards, olive groves, deciduous fruit) face the phenology question directly. Earlier budbreak under a warm forecast exposes the crop to any late frost. Frost damage scales with crop stage, not just frost intensity. A frost at tight cluster costs far more than the same frost at dormant bud. Frost protection readiness should assume earlier timing than recent springs have required.
Spring-sown crops (maize, sunflower, sugar beet, potatoes, vegetables) face regionally variable establishment conditions. Wet soils in the southeast and parts of Iberia will delay planting and demand careful timing around field entry. Central Europe is probably the best positioned, with full moisture reserves and reasonable structure. The northeast offers drier topsoil that works for precise seedbeds but asks for attention to moisture conservation from the first pass.
What to do now
The wet February has handed farmers something recent outlooks rarely delivered: healthy soil moisture across most of the continent at the start of spring. The question is how long that reserve lasts given the warm forecast, and what field decisions now will protect the gains.
In wet regions (southeastern Europe, Iberia after the recharge, the western Balkans): protect soil structure. Wait for fields to drain below field capacity before entering. Inspect drainage systems before the final thaw peak. Scout winter cereals for waterlogging symptoms and factor any nitrogen loss into spring top-dressing plans.
In drier regions (parts of Scandinavia, the northeast): conserve moisture from the start. Maintain residue cover, minimise tillage, control weeds early so they do not compete for limited water, and plan irrigation readiness earlier than usual.
Everywhere: shift from calendar-based to stage-based management. The warm spring will advance crop development by one to three weeks. Operations tied to fixed dates will miss the actual growth stage. Start disease scouting earlier, especially in regions that were wet through February. Plan for the drier summer signal by protecting reserves now rather than hoping spring rain covers the gap.
Working with what we know and what we do not
Seasonal forecasts describe the most likely average conditions over months. They do not predict individual storms, cold snaps, or wet weeks. The clearest signal in the March outlook is warmth, and that one can be planned around. Precipitation signals are weaker and more uncertain. Soil moisture, which is often the single most useful field-level variable, is currently positive across most of Europe. It will draw down faster under warm conditions, especially if the summer drying signal holds.
The 2026 spring starts from a better position than any of the past several seasons in most of the continent. The work now is to hold that position into summer by protecting soil structure, managing development to stage rather than date, and reading local conditions as they actually arrive.
Note: This article provides guidance based on the latest seasonal outlook data available. Farmers should monitor local weather conditions and consult with regional agricultural extension services for location-specific recommendations.
