EU grain maize yields are 9% below average in 2026

The European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) puts the EU grain maize yield for 2026 at 6.42 t/ha, 9% below the five-year average and 10% below last year, according to its October crop monitoring bulletin. The picture varies widely from country to country, since after a summer of heat and drought, from June to August, yields are 46% below average in Hungary, 33% in Slovakia, 31% in France and 30% in Austria, while in Bulgaria they are 34% above and in Romania 15% above. Greece is 1% above its average and Portugal 2%.

Grain maize yield forecasts by country against the five-year average. Source: JRC MARS Bulletin, October 2026.

Source: JRC MARS Bulletin, Crop monitoring in Europe, October 2026, for countries with a forecast.

Hungary has its lowest yields in 20 to 25 years

In Hungary the JRC cut its forecast by a further 7% from September, to 3.12 t/ha, 46% below the five-year average and 41% below last year. According to the bulletin, the country's summer crop forecasts are at their lowest level in 20 to 25 years. Drought continued into September, autumn tillage was difficult because of hard soils, and rain arrived only around 10 October.

Western and central Europe lost up to a third of yields

In France, the EU's largest maize producer, temperatures stayed above average and locally exceeded 30°C in the first half of September, while rainfall was below normal, mainly in central and eastern regions. The JRC cut its forecast again, to 6.30 t/ha, 31% below average, and harvesting, well ahead of schedule, was expected to finish in the last ten days of October.

In Austria the yield is 30% below average, in Slovakia 33% and in Czechia 27%, where, according to the JRC, the disappointing maize harvest is coming to an end. In Germany, at 19% below average, maize was hit mainly in the south and west, where premature senescence and poor cob formation led to very early harvests, and some grain maize was harvested for silage to make up for fodder shortages. In Slovenia the yield is 23% below average and in Croatia 13% below, with local crop failure in areas also hit by hail in early summer, while in Italy the harvest finished 10 to 20 days earlier than usual, with yields 15% below average.

The Balkans and Greece had a good year

In Bulgaria the yield is forecast at 5.76 t/ha, 34% above the five-year average and 136% above 2025, a year of very low output. In Romania the forecasts for the main summer crops are 15% to 20% above average thanks to high yields in the east, while the outlook along the country's western border remains poor.

In Greece the yield is forecast at 11.0 t/ha, 1% above average and 20% above last year, while Portugal is 2% above average and also 20% above last year. In Spain irrigation sustained maize, with yields 2% below average. In Poland and Lithuania yields are also 2% below average.

Ukraine and Türkiye close to expectations

In Ukraine maize harvesting started later than sunflower and soybean and was about 20% complete, with early yields in line with the JRC's expectations, and the forecast was left unchanged. In Türkiye the JRC lowered its forecast, because in Batı Anadolu very wet weather, low radiation and below-average temperatures during grain filling reduced yield expectations and delayed the harvest, but the yield remains close to the five-year average.

For the market, lower yields in France and Hungary, two of the EU's largest producers, matter for maize and feed supply in Europe, in a year when, as we reported, summer crop forecasts had already been cut in August.

Sources

• European Commission Joint Research Centre. (2026). JRC MARS Bulletin, Crop monitoring in Europe, October 2026, Vol. 34 No 9. 26 October 2026.
• European Commission Joint Research Centre. (2026). Summer crop season closes with below-average yield prospects. 23 October 2026.